The focus of this work is the theory that COVID-19 is a US/Israel bioterrorist weapon designed to crush China's economic competiveness and depose Trump

Silk Road University ...Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China
Contents Etiology Man made virus Israel DARPA COVID unique Bats Weather Dr. Lieber CRSPR  
China geo Probabilities CIA IIBR xxx xxx xxx Weather xxxr xxx  

Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

(NIAID-RML, 2020)
By Gregory C. Brundage

Adapted to HTML Stephen Francis, founder of

Draft article ...February 17, 2020
This paper explores a wide range of virologic, physiologic, environmental, historical, political,
economic, psychological, legal/criminological and military factors necessary to construct a
statistical model of the genesis of COVID-19 in November/December 2019 in Wuhan China. At
this time researchers around the world are racing to develop COVID-19 vaccines and treatments
for existing cases. Contrary to media promoted statistics, this study reveals COVID-19 has an
infection rate 19.4 times faster than SARS, and is already four times deadlier two months into the
spread of this disease (December 8, 2019-February 8, 2020). Authorities in China and the United
States are both claiming that COVID-19 came about in a natural way implying it was definitely not
the result of an accidental or intentional containment breech at Wuhan Virology Institute or a
more sophisticated biological weapon attack. Any arguments to the contrary are swiftly
discredited as “conspiracy theories.” Overlapping but otherwise much different rational for
American and Chinese governments to assert the genesis of this disease was a natural occurrence
are also explored and evaluated. Simultaneously understanding the genesis of a novel virus may
be helpful in developing vaccines and a cure. To write there is a ‘strong relationship’ between the
American DARPA contracted ‘Galveston National Laboratory - Infectious Disease Research Center’
in Texas USA and Wuhan Institute of Virology is an understatement as according to the Galveston
National laboratory internet site they are directing the Wuhan maximum biocontainment
laboratories (MCLs). The relative probabilities of COVID-19 naturally evolving in Wuhan at that
time, accidental containment breech, intentional containment breech and biological weapons
attack are explored. The role of the American Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) as a potential
rational and in effect a mandate for initiating a bioweapon attack on China is explored, as is
potential complicity in a possible bioweapons attack on China by various US ally nations whose
current political structures require the maintenance of American hegemony.
It is concluded that
1) the Chinese central state has done everything reasonably possible to share information
concerning the outbreak and spread of COVID-19, inhibit that spread, and develop a cure and
vaccine, 2) based on a large number of known possible causative factors it is at least 50% possible
the genesis of the COVID-19 was not a product of “natural forces” but rather either an accidental
or intentional containment breech or a more sophisticated bio-weapon attack designed with
CRSPR gene-editing technology at DARPA for the purpose of diminishing Chinese economic
development and assuring the preservation of American global economic hegemony.
Recommendations in the conclusions of this article include a) rational for a bifurcated news
reporting approach in the US and China to minimize risks in both countries b) an American public,
Congressional and Senate evaluation of the DPG as a possible cause of international conflict and
war, c) an international body must be formed to investigate, regulate and monitor BSL-3 and BSL4 research, safety standards and containment breeches, and forcibly stop bioweapons
development as there is none now. This international body must have enforcement powers to
stop bioweapons development permanently. d) There must be a global on-line publicly accessible
record of all pathogens and where they are so when containment breeches occur people at least
know what is killing them and where it came from. Penalties for violating these new biopathogenic laws should be strong enough to present a powerful deterrence. No nations’ “national
security” should preempt the right of all people to live free of biological warfare weapons or the
fear of them.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China .................................................... 1
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... 2
CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... 3
Introduction................................................................................................................................. 6
Etiology...................................................................................................................................... 12
Section 1 Winter environmental conditions at the genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan and
physiologic characteristics of bats............................................................................................. 12
Section 2 The size of China and improbability of COVID-19 appearing specifically in Wuhan . 14
Section 3 Unique characteristics of COVID-19 .......................................................................... 14
High mutation rate ................................................................................................................ 14
Delay onset of symptoms...................................................................................................... 14
Gender and ethnic targeting by ACE and ACE 2.................................................................... 15
Immuno-suppressive characteristics..................................................................................... 17
Rapid infection and spread rate ............................................................................................ 17
A comparison of SARS spread and death rates compared to COVID-19............................... 19
Section 4 DARPA related virus research center in Wuhan........................................................ 20
DARPA’s extensive research in virology, gene-splicing/CRISPR research, use of bats as a
bioweapons carrier, and research on the migratory pathways of bats................................ 22
Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)................................................................................. 24
Section 5 Genocide and Eugenics.............................................................................................. 25
Genocide................................................................................................................................ 25
Eugenics................................................................................................................................. 27
Section 6 Pre-WWII American drive for world hegemony ........................................................ 30
Section 7 Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) as rational for the aggressiveness of American
foreign policy............................................................................................................................. 34
Two top American government officials made public statements identifying China as the
primary target of the American Defense Department within the past six months.............. 36
Ultra-brief recap of the past 20 years of American foreign aggression................................ 36
The rapid rise in racial violence and religious bigotry in the United States encouraged by
President Trump.................................................................................................................... 39
CIA driven ongoing covert attacks on three of China’s peripheral states, specifically Hong
Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet........................................................................................................ 40
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Desensitization of American voters via assassinations......................................................... 53
The improbable arrest of Harvard Professor Charles Lieber who worked for DARPA and at
the Wuhan University of Technology.................................................................................... 54
Section 8 Probability theory and the etiology of COVID-19...................................................... 55
Section 9 Predictable Chinese and American government synchrony on the natural causes of
COVID-19 ................................................................................................................................... 60
On the American side – Profit motive and use of strategic disinformation.......................... 60
Measuring some important freedoms .................................................................................. 64
On the Chinese side, positive thinking and the immune system, conscientiousness and
engagement........................................................................................................................... 67
Use and abuse of the word “conspiracy” .............................................................................. 69
Section 10 Enumeration and evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic potential aggressor nation
probability factors..................................................................................................................... 70
The lesson of Thomas Becket................................................................................................ 72
1) USA – Biological weapons brief review............................................................................. 73
2a) American brief record of military conflicts with China ................................................... 74
2b) American brief record of other military conflicts............................................................ 74
3) American foreign policy’s specific motivation to destabilize China economically and
politically ............................................................................................................................... 77
American partnerships with Wuhan Institute of Virology .................................................... 78
4) American Administration’s response to 2019-n-Cov – Blame the victim and promote fear
of China.................................................................................................................................. 79
1) India - bioweapon production, history, use and capability............................................... 80
2a) India - History of military (and other) aggression against China..................................... 82
India’s “Great Game” disinformation campaign against China in the wake of the COVID-19
Wuhan epidemic ................................................................................................................... 84
2b) India’s pursuance of international military aggression against other countries ............ 91
3) India - Specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically ..................... 92
1) UK bioweapon history and capability................................................................................ 96
2a) UK history of military aggression against China specifically............................................ 97
2b) UK pursuance of other international military aggression............................................... 97
3) UK specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically ........................... 99
1) French bioweapon history and capability ....................................................................... 100
2a) French history of military aggression against China specifically ................................... 100
2b) French pursuance of other international military aggression....................................... 100
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

3) French specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically................... 110
1) Israeli bioweapon history and capability......................................................................... 110
2a) Israeli history of military aggression against China specifically .................................... 113
2b) Israeli pursuance of other international military aggression........................................ 114
Israeli “State Capture” of the USA....................................................................................... 116
3) Israeli specific motivation to destabilize China economically and/or politically ............ 117
1) Saudi Arabian bioweapon history and capability............................................................ 120
2a) Saudi history of military aggression against China specifically ..................................... 124
2b) Saudi pursuance of intra- and international military aggression.................................. 124
Use of military assistance to gain influence in Lebanon ..................................................... 125
Saudi military expenditure compared to other middle east countries............................... 127
Table 3: Military expenditures in the middle east (2018) ................................................... 127
Section 11 Overview................................................................................................................ 128
The effects of the colonial cabal on Palestine..................................................................... 128
Table 2: Factors potentially enhancing motivation to engage in aggression against China*
............................................................................................................................................. 130
Diverse perspectives in China.............................................................................................. 131
Key Issue – Driving the arms races...................................................................................... 132
How much is China’s destiny a function of American elections?........................................ 132
Probability and alternative futures ..................................................................................... 134
Scenario 1 – In the wake of a biological world war mainly mixed-race people survive...... 134
Scenario 2 – The Euro-American global capitalist fascists’ plan: Only Euro-Americans survive
............................................................................................................................................. 135
Critical turning points in history – A timeline...................................................................... 135
Ancient History .................................................................................................................... 135
The “Final Solution”............................................................................................................. 136
Other Scenarios................................................................................................................... 137
Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 138
SUGGESTIONS...................................................................................................................... 141
Some things to be happy about .......................................................................................... 145
About the author................................................................................................................. 145
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

During the last 20 years three coronaviruses have appeared.1
• SARS-CoV which first appeared in Guangdong, China in 2002 and first identified in 2003,
infected 8,000 persons and caused 774 deaths
• MERS-CoV first appeared in Saudi Arabia in 2012. By the end of November 2019 there
were 2,494 confirmed cases and 858 associated deaths
• SARS-CoV-2, later named 2019-nCoV, and then COVID-19 first appeared December 30,
2019 in Wuhan China. As of February 15, 2020, 23:56 GMT, 1,666 deaths of 69,055
confirmed cases in 29 countries and territories. The fatality rate is still being assessed.2
On January 31, 2020 a bioRxiv preprint was posted online titled “Uncanny similarity of unique
inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag” by Indian researchers Pradhan
et. al. asserting they found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) unique to the 2019-nCoV
with amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts with identity or similarity to those in the HIV1 gp120
or HIV-1 Gag. That study was quickly discredited and withdrawn. This researcher attempted to
replicate their results and did not find the specific unique amino acid sequences reported in
their study (GTNGTKR, YYHKNNKS, GDSSS, QTNSPRRRA) in the samples they reported (WuhanHU-1, Accession NC_045512) and of SARS CoV (GZ02, Accession AY390556).
Meanwhile an Indian internet site went on to publish a series of
articles with wild unfounded accusations of great maleficence on the part of various Chinese
individuals and organizations. This has been followed by an American political and media Chinabashing storm, for example:
Senators exploit doctor’s death to attack China’s political system
By Ai Jun Source: Global Times Published: 2020/2/13
…designed to exploit this human tragedy to the maximum extent.
The one thing American and Chinese officials appear to agree on is that the genesis of COVID-19
epidemic is of natural origin and not an accidental or intentional containment breech at Wuhan
Institute of Virology, or a biological weapons attack released at Wuhan to make it appear to be a
containment breech. This article reviews those forbidden theories from a wide range of
virologic, physiologic, environmental, political, economic, historical, psychological,
legal/criminological and military perspectives.
On Wednesday February 5, 2019 a snow storm started in Beijing which continued through to
Thursday morning. The dawn of February 6th in Beijing saw history’s greatest economic engine
apparently ground to a halt. The most dynamic world capital in all of human history was totally
silent. The COVID-19 epidemic had raged around the country for more than a month and
schools, factories, entertainment and sports facilities, practically everything was shut and
locked. No funerals are permitted for the growing number of victims of COVID-19, instead they
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

were quickly cremated. Villages, towns, suburbs, and apartment complexes are walled and
fenced with security checkpoints at what few entrances there were making travel difficult, and
then the blizzard hit. On Thursday morning February 6th, 2019, a strange and eerie silence
enshrouded Beijing. Snow storms like that in early February are quite normal in Beijing, but this
year everything was different. In spite of all that, at 9:00 am Beijing’s Walmarts opened, along
with thousands of other stores, KFC opened soon after, and life more or less returned to normal,
except practically everyone was wearing filter face masks. True, the lines at Walmart were long
with people’s shopping carts filled to the brim and above not necessarily because of hoarding,
but rather people just wanted to minimize the number of times they had to go grocery
Certainly, correlation does not prove causation and the USA cannot possibly be responsible for
every leaf that falls from the tree of life. Simultaneously it is also true that in a room full of
smoking guns and dead bodies, some kind of crime probably occurred. And, when it occurs that
there is a chorus on the sidelines laughing merrily, cheering the whole thing on and profiting
from the slaughter, it is not unreasonable to wonder if some members of that chorus might
possibly have had something to with that crime.
It is presumed that virologists studying COVID-19 are already aware there is at least a 50%
probability this virus did not occur naturally, as they are not naïve, and probably also realize that
the Chinese government would have to keep the possibility of a containment breech or
biological attack secret in order to maintain public order.
Were the Chinese public to be fully aware of the potential or probable American complicity in
the COVID-2019 epidemic, Americans might not be safe in China. Surviving victim family
members of those who died of COVID-19 would have a lot of justifiable anger and unfortunately
mobs can form in an instant, anywhere in the world. This kind of thing would “fit” perfectly into
a hypothetical American game-plan for further isolating and defaming China. Thus, logically, the
Chinese government has no choice but to continue to assert the origin of COVID-19 is of natural
causes and hope the next American president is not so virulently anti-China as is the present
American administration. American foreign policy always capitalizes on radicalizing target
populations in order to provoke responses used as justification for even greater aggression by
the US DoD directed towards those target populations.
There is almost no possibility that at some time in the future the Chinese government will
acknowledge this disease may have been directly related in some way to research at the Wuhan
Virology Institute for several reasons, one being that COVID-19 appeared 80 kilometers away at
the wet market, and also the containment practices at the Wuhan Institute of Virology are
extremely strict.
In regards to Americans however, who are planning on voting in the November election this
year, they should be aware there is at least a 50% probability their intelligence chiefs and
President approved a biological weapons attack on China. Certainly, accidental containment
leaks do occur fairly often at BSL-3 and BSL-4 facilities as is reviewed in some detail later in this
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

However, it would be just as reckless and negligent to emphatically assert that COVID-19 came
about from natural causes as it would be to emphatically assert it came about from other
causes. At some point all potential causative factors responsible for the genesis of the COVID-19
epidemic must be dispassionately examined.
Wuhan pathogen biologist addresses six conundrums about deadly
novel coronavirus, by Global Times staff reporters, 2020/2/16
“‘Identifying the origin of the virus is critical to epidemic prevention. An
unclear origin means there is a potential risk of animal-human
infection,’ Yang said.
This article is exactly that, a probability analysis of potential causes of the COVID-19 epidemic.
For example, the relative area of Wuhan is compared to the area of China and it is found that
Wuhan is less than one millionth the size of China. Given that Wuhan is the location of China’s
largest BSL-3 and BSL-4 microbiology research facilities, that means the probability of COVID-19
appearing randomly in Wuhan specifically is about one in a million,
although environmental
conditions such as winter temperatures at the time COVID-19’s appearance, ideal virus
incubation temperatures and bat physiology also need to be incorporated into that probability
statistic as is presented later in this paper.
A variety of possible scenarios are explored in this paper, ranging from
accidental containment breech, intentional containment breech and
intentional bioweapon release in Wuhan specifically to create the
false impression it was a containment leak thereby simultaneously
slowing down the Chinese economy and smearing China at the same
time. This latter hypothesis is the most likely scenario when all factors
are considered.
This paper however was prepared for virologists and others seeking an understanding of the
origin of the COVID-19 virus, not for the Chinese public who are suffering enough now without
the added burden of possible feelings of betrayal by and anger towards the USA – a nation most
Chinese have admired for most of their lives.
Probability models don’t “prove” anything, but might in this case be of some assistance in
calculating the likelihood of the origin of COVID-19, and thereby a more effective vaccine.
Wuhan pathogen biologist addresses six conundrums about deadly novel
By GT staff reporters, Global Times, 2020/2/16
“Yang also refuted speculation that the virus was leaked from a lab,
saying that it could not have come from the Wuhan Institute of Virology,
as it did not have the coronavirus. It was experts of the Chinese Center
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [that] isolated the novel
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

coronavirus in the environmental samples of a seafood market in Wuhan
with no involvement from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
“Yang told the Global Times the Wuhan Institute of Virology is a biosafety
Level 4, lab, and its protective measures are extremely strict.
“The institute, located in the east side of Wuhan, is 80 kilometers away
from the seafood market, which is in the west of the city. ‘If the virus was
leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, cases should have been
discovered near the lab, not the remote seafood market. There is no
chance that the coronavirus was leaked from the lab...’
“Regarding the ‘biochemical war’ conspiracy theory circulated online,
Yang explained that Wuhan held the Military World Games in October
last year and the US delegation stayed in a hotel not far from the seafood
market. Wuhan discovered cases of coronavirus infection later in
“‘This is why some people have speculated that the outbreak is a
biochemical war conspiracy launched by the US against China,’ Yang said.
“But there was no way to prove it. ‘The topic is not appropriate to
circulate and ferment among the public. I have to say that biochemical
war lacks ethics and its possibility is extremely small,’ he said.”
Those who have lived in China know the phrase “extremely strict,” is no joke or exaggeration.
It would however be simpler for a staff person from the American consulate in Wuhan to
transport a bioweapon into China and plant it at the wet market than an athlete. Diplomatic
immunity would allow for a frozen container to be imported into China without inspection, and
it would be perfectly normal for a consulate employee to go to the wet market as those markets
always have the freshest fruits, vegetables, meats and fish in every city. They are often quite
crowded in the mornings. A visiting athlete however might find getting there a bit difficult,
wouldn’t have a transportable freezer container and wouldn’t have diplomatic immunity if
caught. American consulate personnel are there 24/7/365 and know the city quite well. The CIA
always uses State Department cover identities, except for their NOC officers.
“The Consulate General of the United States in Wuhan was re-established
in 2008 under the provisions of the 1981 U.S.-China Agreement on
Consular Facilities. The United States previously had a Consulate in the
Hankou area of Wuhan dating from 1861 until its closure in 1949. During
World War II, the Hankou Consulate served as the U.S. Embassy for a
period of time. The Consulate General currently focuses on providing
emergency services to American citizens in the region, promoting U.S.
exports and fostering other aspects of our commercial and economic
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

relations, and expanding cultural and educational exchanges between
the U.S. and central China.”
Having such a long-established diplomatic presence in Wuhan radically increases the probability
that the CIA has a wide base of Chinese agents there. Unlike the movies, CIA officers almost
never get involved directly in operations. Their primary job is to recruit local agents to do their
dirty work for them. In China the CIA has a very large and well-developed network of
underground “Christian” churches that are largely sympathetic to an American “agenda,” and a
tendency towards “magical thinking” which allows for anything to be rationalized in the name of
Why would the Chinese media prefer to point a finger at an athlete from the World Military
Games? Those foreign athletes are gone now and it’s the only way to protect the American
consulate in Wuhan. Chinese officials have an extreme need to try to maintain the status quo as
long as possible and hope that a more reasonable president is elected later this year. The
Chinese government wants international harmony and doesn’t want conflict. Also, the Chinese
government and individuals have invested literally trillions of dollars in the USA. Chinese
philosophy is based on Confucian harmony and in the final analysis harmony is more profitable
than war which creates only losers.
Simultaneously, the American DoD has a proven habit of exporting death to target populations
around the world.
“US diplomats involved in trafficking of human blood and pathogens for
secret military program”
By Dilyana Gaytandzhieva, June 14, 2019
“The US Embassy to Tbilisi transports frozen human blood and pathogens
as diplomatic cargo for a secret US military program. Internal documents,
implicating US diplomats in the transportation of and experimenting on
pathogens under diplomatic cover were leaked to me by Georgian
insiders. According to these documents, Pentagon scientists have been
deployed to the Republic of Georgia and have been given diplomatic
immunity to research deadly diseases and biting insects at the Lugar
Center – the Pentagon biolaboratory in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi.
“This military facility is just one of the many Pentagon biolaboratories in
25 countries across the world. They are funded by the Defense Threat
Reduction Agency (DTRA) under a $ 2.1 billion military program –
Cooperative Biological Engagement Program (CBEP), and are located in
former Soviet Union countries such as Georgia and Ukraine, the Middle
East, South East Asia and Africa...
Ethnic Bioweapons
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Documents reveal some of the projects funded by the Pentagon. Among
them projects related to Russia. The US Air Force has been specifically
collecting Russian RNA and synovial tissue samples raising fears in
Moscow of a covert US ethnic bio-weapons program.”
Note the above article is dated June 14, 2019, before the appearance of COVID-2019, ergo not a
“conspiracy theory” in response to it.
What kind of delivery system might a foreign intelligence officer or agent have used to disperse
the original COVID-19 virus around the market in Wuhan?
COVID-19 could have been released at the Wuhan wet market in a hundred ways. For example,
the virus could have been laced into powdered feces3
, dumped into the back of a pickup truck
and then parked in the Wuhan wet market parking lot upwind of the market on a day with a
strong wind. A strong wind could blow perhaps 50 or 100 kilos of infected dust over the market
and at least some people would begin to show symptoms of COVID-2019 within a week.
Following that the pickup truck could then drive in circles around the market at relatively high
speeds so the road bumps would help scatter what the wind didn’t send into the air. Then,
naturally the driver would want to take that pickup truck to a car wash. Conversely, an agent
could have delivered the virus immersed in a nutritive solution via drone.
An intentional biological weapon attack released in Wuhan would make sense from an American
military strategic point of view given that Wuhan is directly south of Beijing and several bat
subspecies fly north in the Spring, CIA funding for the color revolution in Hong Kong has been
proven, CIA has engaged in circulating terrorists from Xinjiang to Syria where they were trained
and then sent back to Xinjiang to promote a separatist movement, and the CIA multi-decade
support of the Tibetan independence movement is well documented.
In other words, after hitting China at three peripheral points, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet, it
makes perfect strategic sense to attack China at its heart: Beijing. The goal of this strategy, to
slow or shatter the Chinese economy is – as unethical as it may sound to most – actually
mandated by the American Defense Planning Guidance (DPG). That China is the “primary target”
of America’s “Department of Defense” was also publicly acknowledged by two top American
government officials within the last year and reported in the major media.
Thus, researchers working on a vaccine and cure for COVID-19 should be aware based on
statistical modeling within an environmental/physiologic/political/military/medical context, this
disease quite possibly (≥0.5) did not naturally occur. Likewise, Americans in this election year of
2020 should be aware there is some possibility their own government under the administration
of President Trump has begun a new age of asymmetric biological warfare.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

It all started innocently enough.
“Since Dec 8, 2019, several cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology have
been reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Most patients worked
at or lived around the local Huanan seafood wholesale market, where live
animals were also on sale. In the early stages of this pneumonia, severe
acute respiratory infection symptoms occurred, with some patients
rapidly developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute
respiratory failure, and other serious complications. On Jan 7, a novel
coronavirus was identified by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) from the throat swab sample of a patient, and was
subsequently named COVID-19 by WHO.”
On January 31, 2020 Gene News confirmed:
“Coronavirus Outbreak Emerged from Bats, Genomic Findings Suggest,”
By Julianna LeMieux, PhD
Section 1 Winter environmental conditions at the genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan and
physiologic characteristics of bats
There is or at least was some debate concerning bats as carriers and incubators of COVID-19.
The following supports that hypothesis that bats were/are incubators and/or carriers of this
novel coronavirus.
Genomic characterization and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus:
implications for virus origins and receptor binding.
Lu R, Zhao X, Li J, Niu P, Yang B, Wu H, Wang W, Song H, Huang , Zhu N,
Bi Y, Ma X, Zhan F, Wang L, Hu T, Zhou H, Hu Z, Zhou W, Zhao L, Chen J,
Meng Y, Wang J, Lin Y, Yuan J, Xie Z, Ma J, Liu WJ, Wang D, Xu W,
Holmes EC, Gao GF, Wu G, Chen W, Shi W, Tan W.
“The ten genome sequences of COVID-19 obtained from the nine patients
were extremely similar, exhibiting more than 99·98% sequence identity.
Notably, COVID-19 was closely related (with 88% identity) to two batderived severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses,
bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, collected in 2018 in Zhoushan,
eastern China, but were more distant from SARS-CoV (about 79%) and
MERS-CoV (about 50%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that COVID-19 fell
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

within the subgenus Sarbecovirus of the genus Betacoronavirus, with a
relatively long branch length to its closest relatives bat-SL-CoVZC45 and
bat-SL-CoVZXC21, and was genetically distinct from SARS-CoV. Notably,
homology modelling revealed that COVID-19 had a similar receptorbinding domain structure to that of SARS-CoV, despite amino acid
variation at some key residues.”
“COVID-19 is sufficiently divergent from SARS-CoV to be considered a
new human-infecting betacoronavirus. Although our phylogenetic
analysis suggests that bats might be the original host of this virus, an
animal sold at the seafood market in Wuhan might represent an
intermediate host facilitating the emergence of the virus in humans.
Importantly, structural analysis suggests that COVID-19 might be able to
bind to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor in humans. The
future evolution, adaptation, and spread of this virus warrant urgent
Lancet, 2020 Jan 30. pii: S0140-6736(20)30251-8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-
6736(20)30251-8. [Epub ahead of print]
Bats are the only flying mammals and also unique in that they can carry viruses without being
infected themselves. They are perfect incubators and carriers of viruses in the proper
environmental conditions.
COVID-19 first appeared in Wuhan December 8th, 2019. The average temperature in Wuhan in
November and December are: high 17° / low 8° and 11° / 2°respectively. Simultaneously,
viruses appear to grow best in warmer temperatures:
“The higher incubation temperatures (37°C and 39°C) significantly
promoted virus growth which is most likely as a result of greater viral
polymerase activity (20%–60%) than that observed at 35°C and as much
as 100% greater virus yield (as measured by hemagglutination assay) 2
days after inoculation.”
Whereas cold viruses often flourish in winter, they are not often first incubated in bats, who
though mammals have a very wide range of body temperatures, usually about the same as local
environmental conditions, generally ranging from 2⁰ C. to 41.5°.
Thus, when it is cold outside their bodies are more or less equally cold, except when they fly at
which time their body temperatures rise to about the same as humans. Bats appear to rest
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

about 79% of the day.4 Thus, November and December are not the mostly likely time for the
incubation of a novel virus in bats in Wuhan. Further south such as in Yunnan province would
have been a more likely place for the evolution of a novel virus in bats. Bats are eaten widely
throughout South China, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America.5
Section 2 The size of China and improbability of COVID-19 appearing specifically in
China's total area is about 9.597 million km². The area of Wuhan is approximately 8,494 km².
Given that viruses can survive in freezing temperatures, theoretically this virus could have
appeared anywhere in China, though viruses grow better in warmer temperatures. Given that
the area of Wuhan (8,494 km²) is less than one millionth of the area of China (9.597 million km²),
the probability of it appearing in any particular places is small, though a southern warm climate
is optimal for viral incubation. Thus, the probability of COVID-19 appearing in Wuhan specifically
is somewhat less than one in 500,000.
Section 3 Unique characteristics of COVID-19
High mutation rate
The prevailing narrative is that COVID-19 incubated and mutated in bats, jumped from animals
to humans and then mutated again to permit transmissions between humans. This virus is
atypical in a number of ways. For example it has mutated seven times since it was first
“This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of viruses from the
novel coronavirus (nCoV) outbreak. All samples are highly related with at
most seven mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a
shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an
initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-tohuman transmission leading to sampled infections.” (Downloaded Feb. 4,
And unfortunately, “viruses showing high mutation rates tend to evade immunity more
Delay onset of symptoms
Initial research indicated incubation period of 10 days to two weeks for the symptoms to
manifest, if they show up at all, while simultaneously the host can transmit it to other people.
“Asymptomatic cases set the new virus apart from the related
coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). There
was a global outbreak of this virus in 2002–03, but it usually spread only
4 Ecology of Bats, edited by T.H. Kunz, P. 34 Springer Science & Business Media, 2013.
5 Exploitation of Bats for Bushmeat and Medicine
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

once people were ill enough to need hospital care. Once outbreaks in
hospitals were brought under control, SARS was contained. There is no
evidence that the virus is still circulating in humans, says Mackay.”
Later (pre-press release) research found incubation period up to 24 days in rare cases, and a
median reported incubation period of 3-5 days.
Gender and ethnic targeting by ACE and ACE 2
Initial study found COVID-19 appears to primarily target mostly older men though about 10% of
victims are female (a later sample, Feb 10, 2020 female infection rate of total revised to 41.9%6
and there is some preliminary evidence particularly Asian men are vulnerable to this disease,
possibly targeting Denisovan chromosomal chains.
“A comparison between eight individual samples demonstrated that the
Asian male one has an extremely large number of ACE2-expressing cells
in the lung.”
The sample size in the above study is at minimum, perplexing.
The SARS epidemic (2003) appeared to target primarily Asian and Black men according to
studies in Japan, Kyrgyzstan and China.
“The I/D polymorphism of the angiotensin converting enzyme [ACE] gene
as a risk factor for ischemic stroke in patients with essential hypertension
in Kyrgyz population
“Positive associations have been reported in studies of Asians and blacks
but not Caucasians. Our study was conducted in a relatively
homogeneous population of Kyrgyz men belonging to the Asian race and
provided corroboration for the probability of race differences for the
presence of an association between the I/D polymorphism of the ACE
gene and the development of hypertension.”
Andrey Polupanov, M.D., Abdimutalip Halmatov, M.D., Oleg Pak, M.D.,
Tatyana Romanova, M.D., Elena Kim, M.D., Natalia Cheskidova, M.D.,
Almaz Aldashev, M.D., Ainagul Dzhumagulova, M.D. Türk Kardiyol Dern
Arfl - Arch Turk Soc Cardiol 2007; 35(6):347-35
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Sample size in the above study was 313.
ACE, ACE2 and UTS2 polymorphisms and essential hypertension
“In the present work we investigated the association of ACE2 gene
polymorphism with EH in north-west Chinese populations. In the present
work we also studied the role of polymorphism of ACE gene in EH in these
two populations. ACE plays an important role in cardiovascular
homeostasis through the formation of angiotensin II and the inactivation
of bradykinin. (21) ACE insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism showed
an association with hypertension in African-Americans but not in
Europeans, (22–25) and controversial results from studies on different
ethnic groups seem to suggest that the ACEI/D polymorphism associated
with EH might be population dependent or have a racial predisposition.”
(24 – 27)
L Yi, YH Gu, XL Wang et al, The Journal of International Medical Research,
2006; 34: 272 – 283
Kazuomi Kario, Nobuyuki Kanai, Ken Saito, Naoki Nago, Takefumi Matsuo,
and Kazuyuki Shimada Originally published1 May 1996
“Ischemic Stroke and the Gene for Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme in
Japanese Hypertensives
“Background The ACE insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism is reported
to be associated with myocardial infarction in both whites and Japanese.
However, there have been no reports on the association of this
polymorphism with stroke in each race. Furthermore, there are some
racial differences in the demographics of cardiovascular diseases. In
Japanese, stroke (especially that which occurs in preexisting
hypertension) is more common and coronary artery disease much less
common than in whites. We propose that the ACE I/D polymorphism
might be associated with hypertensive cerebrovascular disease in
“The clinical and metabolic characteristics of the subjects studied are
shown in Table 1. There were no significant differences among the three
groups in prevalence of current or ex-smokers, those with family history
of known stroke or sudden death, or any metabolic variable. In 228
hypertensive patients, male sex and ECG-LVH were more common in the
stroke group than in the non-stroke group (P<.05).
“In conclusion, we found a positive association between the ACE*D allele
and ischemic stroke in our study of Japanese hypertensives. This
association was independent of other risk factors, including ECG-LVH.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Thus, the ACE*D allele may be an independent risk factor for the
development of cerebrovascular disease in hypertensive patients. The
consistency of our results in different racial populations and their
pathological relevance still need to be assessed by larger prospective
association studies or linkage-based family studies.”
Immuno-suppressive characteristics
• A combination of flu and HIV medications appear to work best treating COVID-19.
• The COVID-19 belongs to Betacoronavirus which also contains SARS-CoV and Middle
East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV).
020-0282-0 Which begs the apriori question: How did Wuhan bats become infected with
this deadly combination9
virus in the first place?
Rapid infection and spread rate
“The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS
Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J, February 13, 2020
“Here we review the basic reproduction number (R0) of the 2019-
nCoVvirus. R0is an indication of the transmissibility of a virus,
representing the average number of new infections generated by an
infectious person in a totally naïve population. For R0 greater than one
the number infected is likely to increase, and for R0 less than one
transmission is likely to die out. The basic reproduction number is a
central concept in infectious disease epidemiology, indicating the risk of
an infectious agent with respect to epidemic spread.
“This review found that the estimated mean R0 for 2019-nCoV is around
3.28, with a median of 2.79 and IQR of 1.16, which is considerably higher
than the WHO estimate at 1.95. These estimates of R0 depend on the
estimation method used as well as the validity of the underlying
assumptions. Due to insufficient data and short onset time, current
estimates of R0for 2019-nCoVare possibly biased.”
Journal of Travel Medicine, taaa021,
This research corroborates initial observations.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

• It was reported February 3rd in many mainstream news reports including NYT, CNN and
Business Insider that the death toll of Novo-Coronavirus had already exceeded that of
the SARS epidemic. (Given that the first cases were reported less than two months
earlier, December 8, 2019)
• As of February 4, 2020, COVID-19 has already spread to 25 countries.10
• Feb 5, 2019, 8:15 am China’s Global Times reported:
Chinese health authorities Wednesday said it received reports of 3,887
new confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection and 65 deaths on
Tuesday from 31 provincial-level regions and the Xinjiang Production and
Construction Corps.”
“A total of 24,324 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed on the Chinese
mainland as of Tuesday morning, with 490 deaths, said China's National
Health Commission. (That number was revised to 563 by nightfall.)
• As of February 6, 2020, 28,338 cases, of which 3,863 (14%) are in critical
condition, Deaths: 565, infections appeared in 28 countries.11
Unfortunately, the geographic spread rate is large though Chinese government efforts to restrict
travel and monitor travelers have been pervasive.
Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan
to Other Cities in China, Original Publication Date: 2/13/2020
Du Z, Wang L, Chauchemez S, Xu X, Wang X, Cowling BJ, et al. Risk for
transportation of 2019 novel coronavirus disease from Wuhan to other
cities in China.
Abstract: On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain 2019
novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of
transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China
before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-
190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.
Assuming these rates of early epidemic growth, we estimate that 130
cities in China have a >50% chance of having a COVID-2019 case imported
from Wuhan in the 3 weeks preceding the quarantine (Figure). By January
26, a total of 107 of these 130 high-risk cities had reported cases.
However, 23 had not, including 5 cities with importation probabilities >99%
and populations >2 million: Bazhong, Fushun, Laibin, Ziyang, and
Under our lower bound estimate of 6.26 days for the doubling time,
190/369 cities lie above the 50% threshold for importation. Our risk
assessment identified several cities throughout China likely to be
10 (As of Feb. 4, 2019)
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

harboring yet undetected cases of COVID-19 a week after the quarantine,
suggesting that early 2020 ground and rail travel seeded cases far beyond
the Wuhan region under quarantine.
Emerg. Infect Dis. 2020 May [date cited].
A comparison of SARS spread and death rates compared to COVID-19
Death toll passes 700; Hong Kong enforces quarantine (Published Feb. 8,
Update: US citizen dies in Wuhan
– US embassy has confirmed that an American citizen diagnosed with
coronavirus died in Wuhan on 06 February. This is the first known death
of a US national due to the new coronavirus.
– Coronavirus deaths have gone past 700 as of the end of 07 February,
with China reporting 86 new deaths. Death toll now stands at 724, while
a total of 34,881 cases have been confirmed. Of the 34,546 cases in
mainland China, 6,101 are serious.
– Hong Kong began imposing a two-week quarantine for anyone arriving
from mainland China.
Recall COVID-19 first appeared in Wuhan December 8th, 2019.
Thus, in a two-month period, December 8 to February 8, 724 deaths from COVID-19 were
Contrast this to the SARS epidemic:
“…approximately 774 official SARS-related deaths; most of those
infections occurred during a nine-month period from 2002 to 2003.”
That is 774 deaths in a nine-month period from SARS. Compare that to the 724 deaths from
COVID-19 in only two months.
• Thus, from the onset of the epidemic, COVID-19 appears to be about four times deadlier
than the SARS epidemic
• Over an eight-month period there were 8,098 reported cases of SARS, whereas in the
two months of the COVID-19 there have been 34,915 reported cases.
Physicians Weekly is reporting
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“During the SARS outbreak between November 2002 and July 2003, 774
people died globally, while the number of reported cases was 8,098,
suggesting a far lower transmission rate than the latest coronavirus, but
a higher mortality rate.”
A lower transmission rate?
On February 8, 2019, reports cite 34,915 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 28 countries, and that
is only over a two-month period (December 8, 2099 to February 8, 2020), compared to 8,098
reported cases during the SARS epidemic over a nine-month period.
* 17,457.5 average reported cases per month COVID-19
* 899.7 average reported cases per month SARS
• COVID-19 has a 19.4 times faster infection rate than SARS, and is four times deadlier.
Because of the slow incubation rates, statistics regarding COVID-19 infection rates are almost
always at least a week behind and the spread rate more rapid than current numbers make it
Exactly how seriously someone should take a new disease such as COVID-19 is not a matter of
debate. On one hand people should assume worst case scenarios and take extraordinary
precautions. On the other hand, panic does not help, and victimizing those who don’t appreciate
the seriousness of this disease doesn’t help (but education does help). The Chinese government
attempts to keep people calm but safety conscious which appears to be a wise approach and
consequently the media in China is downplaying the potential dangerousness of this disease.
Worldwide however almost no attention is being paid to the rapid spread of COVID-19 and this
may prove to be a serious miscalculation.
Section 4 DARPA related virus research center in Wuhan
Wuhan hosts China’s largest and most sophisticated virus research center, the Wuhan Institute of
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is an advanced-technology branch of
the U.S. Department of Defense. The purpose of the agency is to try out new technologies and
make them operationally ready, if possible, and to reach beyond current military technology to
do something new.
“DARPA explicitly reaches for transformational change instead of
incremental advances. But it does not perform its engineering alchemy in
isolation. It works within an innovation ecosystem that includes academic,
corporate and governmental partners, with a constant focus on the
Nation’s Military Services, which work with DARPA to create new
strategic opportunities and novel tactical options.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The use of a biological weapon on America’s “primary target” in peacetime would be a “novel
tactical option.”
Their internet site goes into some detail on their advanced research in virology, use of bats as
transmission carriers, and even migratory patterns of bats.
To say there is a “strong relationship" between DARPA contracted "Galveston National
Laboratory” located in Texas USA and Wuhan Institute of Virology is an understatement as
according to the Galveston National laboratory - Infections Disease Research Center they are
directing the Wuhan maximum biocontainment laboratories (MCLs).
Scientific Diplomacy and International Cooperation Key, Say BSL4
Directors, Nov 28, 2018, by Connie Holubar
Editorial – SCIENCE Magazine, Nov. 28, 2018
“Galveston National Laboratory - Infectious Disease Research for Global
Health Security
“We direct a newly constructed MCL in Wuhan, China (Z.Y.) and an
established MCL in the United States (J.W.L), in Galveston, Texas. In
preparation for the opening of the new China MCL, we engaged in shortand long-term personnel exchanges focused on biosafety training,
building operations and maintenance, and collaborative scientific
investigations in biocontainment.”
The Galveston National Laboratory has expertise in the precise techniques to create a very
precisely ethnic-specific targeted virus.
“We can assist investigators with preliminary analysis of their data,
including read mapping, gene expression quantification, miRNA analysis
and alternative splicing of mRNA. Working with investigators from the
Galveston National Laboratory we have developed in-house pipelines for
virus analysis, with emphasis on de novo assembly for novel virus
identification and variant analysis in viral populations. We also can help
in installing and running any new open source analysis methods as they
become available.”
Viruses are coded in RNA.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

DARPA’s extensive research in virology, gene-splicing/CRISPR research, use of bats as a
bioweapons carrier, and research on the migratory pathways of bats
DARPA has been involved in a very wide range of virologic and gene-spicing research projects, as
well as studying the transmission of disease using specifically (insects and) bats as well as bat
Going to the Source to Prevent Viral Disease Outbreaks (DARPA,
“PREEMPT aims to predict and contain viral mutations to prevent crossspecies transmission of disease from animals and insects to humans
Jan 4, 2018 - PREEMPT aims to predict and contain viral mutations to
prevent ... to a species intermediate to humans—for example, from bats
to pigs.
“...A new DARPA program called Preventing Emerging Pathogenic Threats,
or PREEMPT, seeks to support military readiness by going after new viral
infectious diseases at the source, animal reservoirs—the species in which
a pathogen lives, multiplies, and potentially evolves into a strain that can
threaten humans. PREEMPT aims to advance understanding of viruses
and their interaction with animals, insects, and humans, and deliver new,
proactive interventions to reduce the risk from emerging and reemerging
“PREEMPT will have two technical thrusts: development of multiscale
models and test beds to quantify the imminent emergence and
reemergence of human pathogens; and development of new, scalable
approaches to preventing pathogen spillover and transmission from
animals and vectors into humans.
“Understanding how viruses evolve within a species will be a core area of
research. That evolutionary process contains natural bottlenecks that
could be exploited to impede dangerous mutations. PREEMPT will seek
to identify these opportunities for intervention by modeling the factors
that enable species jump. Researchers on the program will be required
to conduct field surveillance of animal and insect species in high-risk
areas around the world; generate data in lab testing and sequence viruses
as they evolve; analyze the jump risk by weighing factors such as past
known jump events, ecology, seasonal variants, and geospatial data; and,
finally, validate models using simulated natural environments.
“New proactive interventions will center on methods for disarming a
virus before it can make a jump across species. PREEMPT aims to prevent
transmission of virus from a reservoir species direct to humans, from a
reservoir species to traditional vectors, such as mosquitos, that spread
disease, and from a reservoir species to a species intermediate to
humans—for example, from bats to pigs.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Domestic and genetically engineered pigs are being increasingly exploited as a system for
modeling human disease.12
A New Layer of Medical Preparedness to Combat Emerging Infectious
Disease (DARPA 2019-02-19)
“Researchers supporting PREEMPT program will model viral evolution in
animal populations, quantify the probability of human pathogen
emergence, and pursue proof-of-concept interventions to prevent viral
spread to humans…
“Modeling and quantification are as important as new experimental
technologies in preventing cross-species jumps. The results from
modeling will inform when, where, and at what levels such interventions
could be applied to achieve the greatest health benefits. Interventions
under consideration include animal- or insect-targeted vaccines,
therapeutic interfering particles, gene editors, and indirect approaches
informed by environmental and ecological factors that affect how viruses
are spread — for instance, understanding the environmental stressors
that drive bats into closer contact with humans and devising mitigating
options to reduce the likelihood of that contact.”
That quote says: “…the greatest health benefits,” however that research can equally be applied
to creating the greatest damage to a target population. That is the true nature of bioweapons
research, not simply protecting American soldiers. All of DAPRA’s research can be turned around
for the strategic application of biological weapons.
If DARPA’s PREEMPT goal was really to “predict and contain viral mutations to prevent crossspecies transmission of disease from animals and insects to humans” as their advertising states,
they certainly failed spectacularly at that in Wuhan. Conversely, they do know quite a bit about
that subject and perhaps they succeeded in attaining a quite different goal. Again, the odds are
about 50/50.
Wuhan pathogen biologist addresses six conundrums about deadly novel
By GT staff reporters, Global Times, 2020/2/16
“Regarding the ‘biochemical war’ conspiracy theory circulated online,
Yang explained that Wuhan held the Military World Games in October
last year and the US delegation stayed in a hotel not far from the seafood
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

market. Wuhan discovered cases of coronavirus infection later in
“‘This is why some people have speculated that the outbreak is a
biochemical war conspiracy launched by the US against China,’ Yang said.
“But there was no way to prove it. ‘The topic is not appropriate to
circulate and ferment among the public. I have to say that biochemical
war lacks ethics and its possibility is extremely small,’ he said.”
The above clipping dated February 16, 2019 is the first time Chinese English language media has
even vaguely addressed the possibility COVID-19 could be a US designed bioweapon. Note the
caveat that ‘the topic is not appropriate to circulate and ferment among the public.’”
Presumably he is referring to the Chinese public.
Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)
The Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons
has been illegal since 1975.
It’s a slippery slope when nations start researching bioweapons because they have to collect,
store, and/or create them to research them. And DARPA has done all three.
The Biological Weapons Convention
“Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and
Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their
“The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), the first multilateral
disarmament treaty banning the development, production and
stockpiling of an entire category of weapons of mass destruction, was
opened for signature on 10 April 1972. The BWC entered into force on 26
March 1975.
“The Second Review Conference (1986) agreed that the States Parties
were to implement a number of confidence-building measures (CBM) in
order to prevent or reduce the occurrence of ambiguities, doubts and
suspicions and in order to improve international co-operation in the field
of peaceful biological activities. The CBMs were expanded by the Third
Review Conference (1991).
“Under these agreements, the States Parties undertook to provided
annual reports – using agreed forms – on specific activities related to the
BWC including: data on research centres and laboratories; information
on vaccine production facilities; information on national biological
defence research and development programmes; declaration of past
activities in offensive and/or defensive biological research and
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

development programmes; information on outbreaks of infectious
diseases and similar occurrences caused by toxins; publication of results
and promotion of use of knowledge and contacts; information on
legislation, regulations and other measures.”
The most recent UN legislation was in 2017.
“Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 4 December 2017 [on
the report of the First Committee (A/72/416)] 72/71.
“Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and
Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on
Their Destruction”
If, DARPA was following mandates in the DPG,13 that is to proactively prevent any nation or region
from even aspiring to compete with the USA politically, economically or militarily and
consequently designed ethnic-specific viruses for offensive use in Asia, and either an intentional
containment breech or release of a biological weapon outside of Wuhan Institute of Virology was
committed by someone associated with a government of the United States or private American
intelligence related organization then the following laws will apply.
Section 5 Genocide and Eugenics
According to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide, genocide is a punishable crime under international
Article I
The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in
time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which
they undertake to prevent and to punish.
Article II
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts
committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical,
racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
13 See section: h₁) Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) as rational for the aggressiveness of American foreign
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to
bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
Article III
The following acts shall be punishable:
(a) Genocide;
(b) Conspiracy to commit genocide;
(c) Direct and public incitement to commit genocide;
(d) Attempt to commit genocide;
(e) Complicity in genocide.
Article IV
Persons committing genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in
article III shall be punished, whether they are constitutionally responsible
rulers, public officials or private individuals.
“By genocide, the murder of hostages, reprisal raids, forced labor,
‘euthanasia,’ starvation, exposure, medical experiments, and terror
bombing, and in the concentration and death camps, the Nazis murdered
from 15,003,000 to 31,595,000 people, most likely 20,946,000 men,
women, handicapped, aged, sick, prisoners of war, forced laborers, camp
inmates, critics, homosexuals, Jews, Slavs, Serbs, Germans, Czechs,
Italians, Poles, French, Ukrainians, and many others. Among them
1,000,000 were children under eighteen years of age.1 And none of these
monstrous figures even include civilian and military combat or wardeaths.”
The legal review above might not seem germane to a probability analysis of the genesis of
COVID-19 as the US so routinely ignores international laws they seem quite irrelevant.
However, November 15, 2016 the UN and the International Criminal Court (ICC) released a
statement that US Forces directed by CIA may have committed War Crimes in Afghanistan, thus
representing a 90⁰ turn in the orientation of the UN. Subsequently on December 20, 2019 the
ICC announced an intention to conduct an official probe into alleged war crimes in Palestine.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Three days later on December 23rd American new media reported “ICC Holds Historic Hearing on
U.S. Torture and Other Grave Crimes in Afghanistan.”
In other words, the Department of Defense could and perhaps should ponder deeply before
starting another overt military war given that the ICC might actually prosecute them for a
change. This has never happened before as the US is not a signatory nation to the Rome Statue,
however, any signatory nation can start the proceedings. There are 123 signatory nations to the
Rome Statue.
In a probability study of the genesis of COVID-19, international law might have both positive and
negative values, e.g. international laws against the making, storing or use of biological weapons
is strictly prohibited, but the ICC never attempted to prosecute the US before giving those laws a
null (=0) value.
The beginnings of ICC investigations into potential American war
crimes in Afghanistan and Palestine might unfortunately have
increased the probability of the US launching a biological weapons
attack on its’ “primary target,”14 China, as detecting the source of
that attack would be problematic at best.
Because bats are so well suited to carrying, incubating and mutating viruses, a bioweapons
attack might be a convenient and plausibly deniable form of attack, much cheaper than say for
example a war against Iran, and could hit the “primary target” China, very hard indeed.
The following section on genocide and eugenics need to be included in a probability model for
calculating the genesis of COVID-19 for two reasons. 1) Over 50% of the fatalities from COVID-19
have been men over 50 with symptoms of comorbidity, and 2) the history behind the genesis of
WWII and the subsequent American rise to the position of the sole global superpower may
partly be found in American research on eugenics, which then found its way to Nazi Germany
where it was widely accepted and applied in a brutal fashion.
“The science of improving a human population by controlled breeding to
increase the occurrence of desirable heritable characteristics. Developed
largely by Francis Galton as a method of improving the human race, it fell
into disfavor only after the perversion of its doctrines by the Nazis.”
The above might be considered a “favorable” definition of Eugenics.
“Was Nazi eugenics created in the US? A review of War Against the Weak:
Eugenics and America's Campaign to Create A Master Race by Edwin
14 See section: h₂) Two top American government officials made public statements identifying China as the
primary target of the American Defense Department within the past six months
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Black, published by Four Walls Eight Windows, New York, NY, USA, by
Garland E. Allen
“The author's central thesis is that Nazi racial hygiene and its ultimate
manifestations in the Holocaust were imported lock, stock and barrel
from the USA, and that, indeed, it was US ruling elites who hatched the
idea of creating a master Aryan race by selective breeding and then
passed it along to the Nazis. More specifically, Black argues that the
Rockefeller Foundation (RF) and the Carnegie Institution of Washington
(CIW) funded much of the American-based movement, both at home and
abroad, and so sat in the driver's seat guiding Nazi racial hygienists along
their fateful path...
“Black is also correct that the American and German eugenicists were in
close contact with each other, especially after World War I: they were
working together in international organizations, following and even
reporting on developments in eugenics in each other's countries. The
Germans did, in fact, borrow much of their 1933 Law for the Prevention
of Hereditarily Defective Offspring (the so-called 'sterilization law') from
the model sterilization law drawn up for the various states by Harry H.
Laughlin, Superintendent of the ERO, and a number of American
eugenicists were impressed with the Nazi eugenics laws after 1933.”
“Neurology as a discipline was indeed complicit in the crimes of the Nazis.
The ideology of racial hygiene combined with opportunistic arguments
about compassion and cost reductions served to justify the systematic
killing of more than 70,000 disabled and sick people. The Nazis
euphemistically called this policy euthanasia. Both neurologists and
psychiatrists were involved...”
According to a study by Lancet, most of the patients studied suffering from COVID-19 were/are
older men who had preexisting comorbid health problems.
“Most patients were men, with a mean age of 55·5 years (SD 13·1;
table 1). 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases, including
cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, endocrine system
disease, digestive system disease, respiratory system disease,
malignant tumor, and nervous system disease (table 1).”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The above could be described as a form of the “culling of the weak,” specifically men as is
prescribed in eugenics.
Given that like SARS, COVID-19 may target a disproportionally higher percentage of Asian men,
were this disease found to have been genetically engineered, it would be considered genocide
and a violation of a number of international laws, including laws against genocide.
Eugenics are still popular in some circles in the US.
“Famed biologist Richard Dawkins sparks Twitter row with ‘eugenics
would work for humans’ argument, February 16, 2020
“Outspoken atheist Professor Richard Dawkins is no stranger to
controversy. But a tweet arguing that eugenics – the kind of selective
breeding advocated by the Nazis – would “work for humans” has landed
the biologist in hot water.
“‘It’s one thing to deplore eugenics on ideological, political, moral
grounds. It’s quite another to conclude that it wouldn’t work in practice,’
the professor and author of ‘The God Delusion’ tweeted on Sunday. ‘Of
course it would. It works for cows, horses, pigs, dogs & roses. Why on
earth wouldn't it work for humans? Facts ignore ideology.’
“Rising to prominence with his 1976 book ‘The Selfish Gene,’ Dawkins
became one of the foremost researchers pushing the gene-centered view
of evolution. This view maintains that evolution occurs through the
survival of particular genes, rather than the organism as a whole. This
work also introduced the concept of the ‘meme.’
“In later years he became better known as an outspoken atheist, with his
2006 book ‘The God Delusion’ selling more than three million copies and
provoking a flurry of debate in academia and media.”
He also is rather outspoken for his hatred of Islam and Muslims.
‘Tedious old racist’: Richard Dawkins under fire for dismissing ‘aggressive’
Muslim prayer
17 Jul, 2018
“Best-selling atheist author Richard Dawkins has once again been
branded ‘racist’ after he tweeted that the sound of cathedral bells is
much more pleasant than the ‘aggressive-sounding Muslim Allahu Akbar.’
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Dawkins, who has previously faced a barrage of criticism for claiming in
a 2013 tweet that Islam is the ‘greatest force for evil in the world today,’
was again accused of Islamophobia on Tuesday morning after sending a
provocative tweet.
“Dawkins also made the headlines in 2015 when he questioned the
motives of Ahmed Mohamed, a 14-year-old boy who was wrongly
arrested in the US after his teacher thought a clock he made was a bomb,
and back in 2013 drew fire for comparing Islam and Nazi Germany.”
The American drive to maintain global hegemony is probably the primary factor to be
considered when analyzing the probability of the COVID-19 being a motivated attack upon China
in light of China’s rise as a global superpower with an economy that has the potential to grow
larger than the American economy. The following section provides evidence that American
foreign policy makers may (“probably,” “almost certainly” depending on which probability
formula one uses) have worked diligently together with the large international banks to start
WWII, the war from which the USA emerged as the sole superpower, a position it strongly
wishes to maintain, and that maintenance in in fact mandated in the DPG.
Section 6 Pre-WWII American drive for world hegemony
The American drive for global hegemony began long before the launching of WWII.
“The key structures that defined the post-war (ed: post-WWI)
development strategy of the West were the central financial institutions
of Great Britain and the United States — the Bank of England and the
Federal Reserve System (FRS) — and the associated financial and
industrial organizations set out a target to establish absolute control over
the financial system of Germany to control political processes in Central
Europe. To implement this strategy, it is possible to allocate the following
“1st: from 1919 to 1924 — to prepare the ground for massive American
financial investment in the German economy;
“2nd: from 1924 to 1929 — the establishment of control over the
financial system of Germany and financial support for national socialism;
“3rd: from 1929 to 1933 — provoking and unleashing a deep financial and
economic crisis and ensuring the Nazis come to power;
“4th: from 1933 to 1939 — financial cooperation with the Nazi
government and support for its expansionist foreign policy, aimed at
preparing and unleashing a new World War...
“American cooperation with the German military-industrial complex was
so intense and pervasive that by 1933 the key sectors of German industry
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

and large banks such as Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Bank, Donat Bank etc.
were under the control of American financial capital...
“The political force that was intended to play a crucial role in the AngloAmerican plans was being simultaneously prepared. We are talking about
the funding of the Nazi party and A. Hitler personally...
“It was through Smith’s circle of acquaintances Hitler was first introduced
to Ernst Franz Sedgwick Hanfstaengl (Putzie), a graduate of Harvard
University who played an important role in the formation of A. Hitler as a
politician, rendered him significant financial support, and secured him
the acquaintance and communication with senior British figures...
“In August 1934, American “Standard oil” in Germany acquired 730,000
acres of land and built large oil refineries that supplied the Nazis with oil.
At the same time, Germany secretly took delivery of the most modern
equipment for aircraft factories from the United States, which would
begin the production of German planes.
“Germany received a large number of military patents from American
firms Pratt and Whitney”, “Douglas”, “Curtis Wright”, and American
technology was building the “Junkers-87”. In 1941, when the Second
world war was raging, American investments in the economy of Germany
amounted to $475 million. “Standard oil” invested – 120 million, “General
motors” – $35 million, ITT — $30 million, and “Ford” — $17.5 million.”
Instrumental in this process on the American side were John Foster Dulles and Allen Dulles16, who
after the war were promoted to Secretary of State and Director of CIA, respectively. This may
seem counter-intuitive. How could two men who helped finance and arm the Nazis be rewarded
with such lofty governmental posts after the war?
The Dulles’ were not the only ones to profit from WWII.
How Bush’s grandfather helped Hitler’s rise to power
16 James Srodes, Allen Dulles: Master of Spies, Regnery Publishing, July 1, 2000
Peter Grose, Gentleman Spy, The Life of Allen Dulles, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, November 1, 1994
David Talbot, “The Devil's Chessboard: Allen Dulles, the CIA, and the Rise of America's Secret Government”
HarperCollins, 2015
Congressional Record: Proceedings and Debates, Volume 96, Part 18,
Antony C. Sutton, Wall Street and the Rise of Hitler, Clairview Books, November 2010
Michael Salter, Nazi War Crimes, US Intelligence and Selective Prosecution at Nuremberg, Routledge-Cavendish, May
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Rumours of a link between the US first family and the Nazi war machine
have circulated for decades. Now the Guardian can reveal how
repercussions of events that culminated in action under the Trading with
the Enemy Act are still being felt by today’s president...
“Bush was also on the board of at least one of the companies that formed
part of a multinational network of front companies to allow Thyssen to
move assets around the world.
“Thyssen owned the largest steel and coal company in Germany and grew
rich from Hitler's efforts to re-arm between the two world wars. One of
the pillars in Thyssen's international corporate web, UBC, worked
exclusively for, and was owned by, a Thyssen-controlled bank in the
Netherlands. More tantalising are Bush’s links to the Consolidated Silesian
Steel Company (CSSC), based in mineral rich Silesia on the German-Polish
border. During the war, the company made use of Nazi slave labour from
the concentration camps, including Auschwitz. The ownership of CSSC
changed hands several times in the 1930s, but documents from the US
National Archive declassified last year link Bush to CSSC, although it is not
clear if he and UBC were still involved in the company when Thyssen's
American assets were seized in 1942.
“Three sets of archives spell out Prescott Bush's involvement. All three are
readily available, thanks to the efficient US archive system and a helpful
and dedicated staff at both the Library of Congress in Washington and the
National Archives at the University of Maryland…”
Though the above may seem a bit far afield from the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 2019, it does
establish a pattern of behavior – the drive towards global hegemony - on the part of that nation
which may have created – using DARPA’s high-end CRISPR gene-editing applications – COVID-19.
After WWII: How Thousands of Nazis Were ‘Rewarded’ With Life in The
U.S., November 5, 2014
“In his new book, The Nazis Next Door, Lichtblau reports that thousands
of Nazis managed to settle in the United States after World War II, often
with the direct assistance of American intelligence officials who saw them
as potential spies and informants in the Cold War against the Soviet
“‘You had teams of lawyers and investigators and historians at the Justice
Department who began ... looking at hundreds and hundreds of names
of suspected Nazis and Nazi collaborators who were living all around the
country, in Queens, in Baltimore, in Florida and Chicago," he says.
“And, in some cases, the CIA had scrubbed the Nazis’ files, Lichtblau says.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“‘They actively cleansed their records," Lichtblau says. ‘They realized that
guys who had been involved at senior levels of Nazi atrocities would not
pass through immigration at the INS — and they basically removed a lot
of the Nazi material from their files.’
National Archives - Interagency Working Group - IWG Declassified
Records > Records of the Secretary of Defense (RG 330)
Foreign Scientist Case Files 1945-1958 (Entry A1-1B)
Boxes 1-186 location: 230/86/46/5
“This series consists of personnel dossiers on over 1,500 German and
other foreign scientists, technicians, and engineers who were brought to
the United States under Project Paperclip and similar programs.”
Also see:
“In chronicling the cases of Nazis who were aided by American
intelligence officials, the report cites help that C.I.A. officials provided in
1954 to Otto Von Bolschwing, an associate of Adolph Eichmann who had
helped develop the initial plans “to purge Germany of the Jews” and who
later worked for the C.I.A. in the United States. In a chain of memos, C.I.A.
officials debated what to do if Von Bolschwing were confronted about his
past — whether to deny any Nazi affiliation or “explain it away on the
basis of extenuating circumstances,” the report said.”
Those Nazis that went to work with the CIA did very well. So well in fact that in 1961, then
Director of CIA Allen Dulles was quoted as saying he was “afraid of the growing power of a Nazi
faction within the CIA.” He was fired shortly thereafter by John Kennedy. None-the-less, the
modern CIA that Allen Dulles created overthrew or attempted to overthrow more than 50
foreign governments.17 18
On the Japanese side of WWII, one might recall it was the American Perry Expedition led directly
to the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and the western ‘Great Powers,’ the
17 William Blum, Killing Hope, U.S. Military and CIA Interventions since World War II
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

collapse of the ruling Tokugawa shogunate, the Meiji Restoration, the modern military
industrialization of Japan, the pre-WWII Zaibatsu and post-war Keiretsu. The end result of WWII
was uncontested American unipolar global hegemony, a hegemony they will maintain at any
cost. The first rule any criminal investigator learns is: “Follow the money,” and the question they
must answer is: “Who profits from this crime.” Thus, the effort, money and human lives that
went into establishing the USA as the sole superpower, are not inconsiderable, and American
intentions to maintain that status are quite substantial as well.
This section should at least demonstrate there is nothing the US will not do to keep or maintain
global hegemony, a critical factor in a probability analysis of the genesis of COVID-19.
Section 7 Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) as rational for the aggressiveness of
American foreign policy
In the early 1970s a TOP SECRET American National Security Directive was issued stating that:
“No nation or region will be allowed to compete with the United States.” It got in the
newspapers, but everyone associated with that leak including the reporter went to jail. It is not
available on the Internet.
This directive was primarily designed to counter a perceived “threat” that Japanese technology
could work together with Chinese manpower and possibly lead to East Asia overshadowing the
US and becoming the world’s dominant economic power. In the 1980s however the Japanese
experienced “the lost decade,” its’ economy flattened out and all seemed “well” for a while in
the American Department of Defense.
And then in 1992 the mandate to take proactive measures to prevent any other nation or region
to politically, economically or militarily compete with the USA popped up again.
“The 1992 draft Defense Planning Guidance (DPG), crafted by thenDefense Department staffers I. Lewis Libby, Paul Wolfowitz, and Zalmay
Khalilzad, is widely regarded as an early formulation of the
neoconservatives’ post-Cold War agenda, laying out a series (of)
economic and military objectives that were intended to ensure a U.S.-led
unipolar global system…
“Among its more salient points, the draft guidance called for massive
increases in defense spending, the assertion of lone superpower status,
the prevention of the emergence of any regional competitors, the use of
preventive—or preemptive—force, and the idea of forsaking
multilateralism if it did not suit U.S. interests. It called for intervening in
disputes throughout the globe, even when the disputes were not directly
related to U.S. interests, arguing that the United States should “retain the
preeminent responsibility for addressing selectively those wrongs which
threaten not only our interests, but those of our allies or friends, or which
could seriously disrupt international relations.” “According to the draft
DPG, the United States must also ‘show the leadership necessary to
establish and protect a new order that holds the promise of convincing
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or
pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests.’”
Every few years since then they come up with a new version, however the themes stay the
same. The 2018 version includes the following:
“As Secretary of Defense Mattis unveiled it last week at the Johns Hopkins
University-School of Advanced International Studies, his language was as
candid as the NDS itself and should inspire real fear among anyone
concerned about U.S. national security: “
“Our competitive advantage has eroded in every domain of warfare.”
“While the U.S. military faces five major challenges in line with American
national security interests—China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and
terrorists—countering the first two across the spectrum of conflict,
including at the high-end and in the gray zone, are prioritized in this
strategy. Specifically, this means the U.S. military will bias toward
competing with China and Russia, most likely in the South China Sea, and
the East China Sea, and Europe, respectively. While competition in the
form of countering China and Russia is the preeminent theme of the NDS,
the strategy subtly conveys that these two challengers are different, with
China appearing to be the first among equals.”
The “gray zone” means “illegal but they think they can get away with it.” Clearly China is the
number one target of American aggression at this time.
• China’s economy has been growing much more quickly than the economy of the United
States for many years, and American Defense Department officials believe the Chinese
economy will surpass that of the American economy within the next few years.
• President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative has been very successful and has greatly
increased respect for China around the world, while America’s endless predatory
military exploits and other highly aggressive foreign policies have greatly diminished
respect for the United States around the world since the end of the Cold War.
Whereas a mature adult with a sense of moral obligation might take responsibility for that loss
of influence and respect, the entire history of the United States has been characterized by
hostile takeovers, first of the land from the native Americans, then exploitation of African slaves,
and then endless foreign “interventions,” military and intelligence driven (coups, revolutions,
etc.) Though President Eisenhower warned about the dangers of the “military industrial
complex”19 not enough people paid attention to make a difference.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The DPG mandates that no nation be allowed to compete with the USA militarily, economically
or politically. Triggering WWIII to maintain global hegemony has distinct liabilities. For example,
it is not the 1940s, or 1990s now. China, Russia and Iran have had plenty of time to prepare for
WWIII. Also, there is evidence that the USA has used DARPA designed bio-weapons against
China in the form of SARS and COVID-19.20 Given that the gloves are off, starting WWIII could
well result in numerous Constitutional violations and violations of various Amendments of the
Bill of Rights.
Preamble of the US Constitution:
“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect
Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the
common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings
of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this
Constitution for the United States of America.”
There is no justice in the DPG, only death. There is no liberty in death, and WWIII will bring
massive death to the people of the United States of America. It will not ensure domestic
tranquility; it will do just the opposite. The DPG and WWIII it guarantees is also a violation of
Amendment 5 of the Bill of Rights - Protection of Rights to Life, Liberty, and Property.
Congress and the Senate need to study the newest version of the DPG, and order its destruction.
For all practical purposes it rationalized and mandated a bioweapons attack on China to prevent
China’s economy from growing larger than the American economy. This represents a violation of
the US Constitution and Bill of Rights, because in WWIII, there will be no winners. China, Russia
and Iran are not backwards third world countries. The DPG and WWIII it will engender
powerfully threatens to abolish all guarantees of life and liberty in the United States, forever.
Two top American government officials made public statements identifying China as the
primary target of the American Defense Department within the past six months
September 23, 2019 - American Department of Defence Policy Chief John C. Rood was quoted
saying: “China Poses Largest Long-Term Threat to U.S.”21
January 30, 2020 - Secretary of State and former CIA Director Michael Pompeo called China’s
ruling party (the Chinese Communist Party) the ‘Central Threat of Our Times’ which was then
reported by all the major mainstream media including NYT, BBC, Reuters, etc.22
Ultra-brief recap of the past 20 years of American foreign aggression
Established habits and pattern of American DoD behavior – a strong factor in a probability
analysis of American potential aggression against a foreign nation.
• Afghanistan War 2001 – Present
20 See: COVID-19 Genesis - Review of Factors by this author, posted on
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

• Iraq War 2003 – Present
• American backed Syrian Civil War, March 15, 2011
• The torture and murder of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi October 20, 2011
• Overthrow of democratically elected President of Egypt, replacement with American
friendly General el-Sisi, Mohamed Morsi, 3 July 2013
• Rebellion starts against American/Saudi backed government in Yemen, March 19, 2015
• Attempted American-backed coup in Turkey July 15, 2016
• UN backed interim government in Libya is formally instituted, 2016
• President Donald Trump signed his first Muslim ban, January 27, 2017
• President Donald Trump launches first salvo in China-US Trade War January 22, 2018
• US backed General Khalifa Haftar increases military assault on UN backed interim
government in Libya, 2018
• Number of world’s displaced people exceeds 70.8 million for the first time in history,
• Torture and murder of Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi inside the (close
American military ally and largest American weapons purchaser) Saudi consulate in
Istanbul October 2, 2018
• Attempted Venezuelan coup May, 2019
• American Department of Defence Policy Chief John C. Rood quoted saying: “China Poses
Largest Long-Term Threat to U.S.,” September 23, 2019
• Successful Bolivian coup, November 10, 2019
• Several cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology reported in Wuhan, Hubei province,
China later to be named COVID-19, December 8, 2019
• Murders of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and eight
other people in Iraq while on a diplomatic mission, January 3, 2020
• Arrest of Professor Charles Lieber, chair of the department of chemistry and chemical
biology at Harvard University who was secretly working for the American Department of
Defence simultaneous to Wuhan University of Technology, January 28, 2020
• Secretary of State and former CIA Director Michael Pompeo called China’s ruling party
the ‘Central Threat of Our Times,’ January 30, 2020
• US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy John Rood announced that “the US Navy has
fielded the W76-2 low-yield submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warhead.” This
new operational capability, Rood declared, “demonstrates to potential adversaries that
there is no advantage to limited nuclear employment because the United States can
credibly and decisively respond to any threat scenario.” February 3, 2020
Thus, to call today’s political milieu the “age of American impunity” would not be an
exaggeration. In some of the above cases of international aggression it is difficult to ascertain if
the intention was 1) direct harm to perceived adversaries, or 2) provocation of perceived
adversaries in hope of eliciting a response which could used as a pretext for greater aggression
(e.g. assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani).
The argument can be made that foreign policy chiefs in the United
States may believe they can provoke and then win WWIII, and in
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

fact that is the only way they can maintain global hegemony in the
face of China’s growing economy and global influence.
And thus, are highly motivated to provoke those nations it perceives to be main targets in hope
of obtaining a response that can be used to justify an all-out war, which they are certain they
will win.
And thus, Iranian and Chinese government officials must be very circumspect in regards to their
words and actions in response to very provocative and aggressive actions by the US government
(e.g. murder of Iranian Commander Soleimani and associates while on a diplomatic mission in
Iraq, the Trade War with China, and possibly COVID-19).
US politicians aim to turn COVID-19 combat into political war against
China ‘vicious’
By Zhou Qing Source:Global Times - AFP Published: 2020/2/16
“Some US politicians, including Rick Scott, are trying to turn a public
health disaster that nations should face together into a political war
against China.
“Senator Rick Scott, the once CEO of hospital network Columbia/HCA,
may think he has some say on public health issues. He insisted that
China's information about novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)
can't be trusted and demanded the World Health Organization (WHO)
issue a "full report," in a tweet he wrote, tagging the Global Times.
“Using the COVID-19 disaster faced by all of humanity as an opportunity
to lash the Chinese political system has become a bipartisan
"stereotype." Aside from some who try to rub salt in the wounds like
Scott, other politicians, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were busy
touting anti-China and anti-Huawei sentiment while Chinese people are
fighting the epidemic.
“In recent years, amid the new wave of protectionism and unilateralism
in the US, targeting China has become a political buy-in for politicians.
One after another, like a competition, politicians staged various China
threat theories to gain political capital.”
Parallel to foreign aggression, there is a rapid spike of aggression directed towards people of
color and Muslims within the United States as well. Cultivating a base of domestic racial and
religious bigotry facilitates public acceptance of foreign racial and religious bigotry.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The rapid rise in racial violence and religious bigotry in the United States encouraged by
President Trump
“The Effect of President Trump's Election on Hate Crimes, Griffin Sims
Edwards, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Stephen Rushin, Loyola
University Chicago School of Law
“This Essay empirically evaluates the relationship between Donald
Trump’s rise to power and the recent increase in reported hate crimes. A
number of critics predicted that President Trump’s divisive rhetoric
during the presidential campaign and his subsequent election would
embolden hate crime perpetrators, thereby contributing to more hate
crimes. Media commentators have dubbed this the Trump Effect.
“We find compelling evidence to support the Trump Effect hypothesis.
Using time series analysis, we show that Donald Trump’s election in
November of 2016 was associated with a statistically significant surge in
reported hate crimes across the United States, even when controlling for
alternative explanations. Further, by using panel regression techniques,
we show that counties that voted for President Trump by the widest
margins in the presidential election also experienced the largest
increases in reported hate crimes.”
The results of this study are confirmed by a number of others.23
FBI statistics regarding hate crimes in 2018 are particularly illuminating.
Of the 6,266 known offenders:
53.6% were White
24.0% were Black or African American
12.9% race unknown
Belying the erroneous but widely accepted notion that minorities are “somehow to blame” for
all “the problems,” of violence in the USA.
As a factor in a probability equation promoting racial bigotry within the USA, desensitizes
Americans to violence against racial (and religious) bigotry, making the idea of say for example,
using a biological weapon against China seem “not quite so terrible a thing after all."
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

August 13, 2019 “Sixty percent of US citizens now hold
generally unfavorable view of China,” according to a survey
published in August 2019 by the Pew Research Center. “This
is up from 47% in 2018 and at the highest level since Pew
Research Center began asking the question.”
“Heck,” many Americans might think. “Those Chinese had it coming anyways; stealing all our
American jobs, and trying to take over the world like President Trump says…”
As a factor this might be called an “empowerment” factor.
CIA driven ongoing covert attacks on three of China’s peripheral states, specifically Hong Kong,
Xinjiang and Tibet
The larger American strategic theme here could be attack and weaken three corners first, before
launching an attack on the heart of China, Beijing. COVID-19 incidentally attacks primarily the
lungs, heart and kidneys.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong erupts even as China tightens screws on civil society, by Simon
Denyer, September 30, 2014 - Washington Post
“One foreign policy expert, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to
discuss a sensitive subject, said Putin had called Xi to share his concern
about the West’s role in Ukraine. Those concerns appear to have filtered
down into conversations held over cups of tea in China, according to civil
society group members.
“‘They are very concerned about Color Revolutions, they are very
concerned about what is going on in Ukraine,’ said the international NGO
manager, whose organization is partly financed by the National
Endowment for Democracy (NED), blamed here for supporting the
protests in Kiev’s central Maidan square. They say, ‘Your money is coming
from the same people. Clearly you want to overthrow China.’
“Congressionally funded with the explicit goal of promoting democracy
abroad, NED has long been viewed with suspicion or hostility by the
authorities here. But the net of suspicion has widened to encompass such
U.S. groups as the Ford Foundation, the International Republican
Institute, the Carter Center and the Asia Foundation.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

US Now Admits it is Funding “Occupy Central” in Hong Kong, by Tony
Cartalucci, Global Research, October 1, 2014
“Of course, NED and its many subsidiaries including the International
Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute do no such
thing as ‘promoting democracy,’ and instead are in the business of
constructing a global network of neo-imperial administration termed
‘civil society’ that interlocks with the West’s many so-called
“international institutions” which in turn are completely controlled by
interests in Washington, upon Wall Street, and in the cities of London and
“The very concept of the United States ‘promoting democracy’ is
scandalous when considering it is embroiled in an invasive global
surveillance scandal, guilty of persecuting one unpopular war after
another around the planet against the will of its own people and based
on verified lies, and brutalizing and abusing its own citizens at home with
militarized police cracking down on civilians in towns like Ferguson,
Missouri – making China’s police actions against “Occupy Central”
protesters pale in comparison. “Promoting democracy” is clearly cover
for simply expanding its hegemonic agenda far beyond its borders and at
the expense of national sovereignty for all subjected to it, including
Americans themselves.”
The above are two western news sources. Also note they are more than five years old and this
CIA funded color revolution in Hong Kong has been going on for a long time. NED has a large
internet site and openly offers big money to those willing to “join the cause” and promote
“democracy.” There really isn’t any attempt to conceal their intent or methods for promoting
insurrection in any country, although some other (also government funded) “NGOs” are much
more shadowy. Hong Kong demonstrators and rioters are very “confident” (read arrogant) for
several reasons: 1) they are well paid, 2) they know they have CIA support, 3) they know that
China is very sensitive about its international image and doesn’t want another Tiananmen Square
fiasco damaging that image, 4) China’s economy is largely dependent on its image for its’
economic prosperity. 5) thus, the demonstrators and rioters know they can get away with virtually
In regards to alleged “arrogance,” of some Hong Kong demonstrators see: (video)
Shanghai Newspaper Accuses American NGOs of Supporting Hong Kong
“Xinmin Evening News, a Shanghai metro paper put out by the Chinese
Communist Party Shanghai Municipal Committee, published an article on
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

July 13 asserting that American NGOs plotted recent demonstrations in
Hong Kong against a controversial extradition bill. The article, entitled
“Cultivating ‘Hong Kong Independence’ Elements and Masterminding
Anti-China Incidents . . . [We] Strip Away the ‘Painted Skin’ of These
American NGOs,” names the National Endowment for Democracy (NED)
and the Open Society Foundations (OSF) in particular as helping organize
the demonstrations from behind the scenes. (“Painted skin” is a
metaphorical Chinese expression describing an attractive appearance
that masks an evil face and cruel nature.) Its publication comes weeks
after large protests began rattling the territory. Hong Kong authorities
have labeled the demonstrators as rioters.
“The Xinmin article warns that ‘although U.S. NGOs are ostensibly not
government organizations, in reality they cannot cut off ties with the U.S.
government, businesses, or the religious community,’ and that China can
neither ‘lower its guard against American NGOs, nor treat them purely as
dangerous scourges. Management in accordance with the law is the key
to letting in American NGOs that have a genuine desire to help China and
not those that just want to cause chaos.’ Citing Chinese government
reports, Xinmin states that over 1,000 American NGOs have operated in
mainland China since 1978, providing a total of 20 billion yuan (U.S.$2.9
billion) in funding. Noting that 82 percent of this funding has flowed into
higher education institutions, research institutions, and government
agencies—rather than civil society organizations—the article implies that
foreign NGOs could even be infiltrating the government system itself.
“The Xinmin news story focuses primarily on the NED. It accuses the NED
of playing a role in Hong Kong protesters’ occupation of the territory’s
Legislative Council on July 1, which it refers to as a “chaotic and damaging
incident” planned and conducted by the opposition coalition in Hong
Kong, ‘Hong Kong Independence’ elements, and Western anti-China
forces. The article claims that NED has supported every major protest in
Hong Kong since 2003, and works to ‘cultivate backbone ‘Hong Kong
Independence’ supporters, such as Joshua Wong. ‘The NED has become
the biggest black hand affecting Hong Kong’s stability, causing far more
harm than the Hong Kong independence elements [visible] at the front
of the stage.’ The article further asserted that the NED’s activities in Hong
Kong are mainly carried out by the National Democratic Institute and the
American Center for International Labor Solidarity. According to the
article, these organizations are two long-term funding sources for the
Hong Kong Democratic Party as well as for non-profits such as SynergyNet
and Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor.
“The article went on to describe how the NED purportedly infiltrates
China, facilitating long-term ideological transformation, by funding
activities in China carried out by Chinese companies, academic
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

institutions, the media, and other NGOs. But because the activities are
carried out through private channels and operated under the guise of the
market, they are “highly concealed,” the article says. “[The NED]
frequently supports ‘democratic movements,’ ‘Tibet independence,’
‘Xinjiang independence,’ and other forces in and outside China, directly
interfering in China’s internal affairs.” Specifically, the article states that
the NED was behind the 2008 Tibetan unrest and the 2009 riots in Urumqi,
Xinjiang, two of the largest incidents of violence and ethnic clashes in
China in recent years.”
Follow the money behind Hong Kong protests
By Sara Flounders posted on August 16, 2019
“Since this article was written on Aug. 15, hundreds of thousands of
Chinese people have demonstrated in support of the People’s Republic
of China and against the counterrevolutionary protests in Hong Kong.
Almost half a million reportedly marched in Hong Kong on Aug. 18, while
thousands of Chinese youth held pro-China demonstrations and
confronted right-wing actions in Canada, France, England, Australia, the
U.S. and elsewhere.
“The demonstrations in Hong Kong, now an open confrontation with the
People’s Republic of China, have a global impact. What are the forces
behind this movement? Who provides the funds and who stands to
“Protests in Hong Kong routinely carry the US flag and photos of Donald
“The increasingly violent demonstrations in Hong Kong are completely
embraced and enthusiastically supported in the U.S. corporate media and
all the imperialist political parties in the U.S. and Britain. This should be a
danger sign to everyone fighting for change and for social progress. U.S.
imperialism is never disinterested or neutral.
“The disruptive actions involve helmeted and masked protesters using
gasoline bombs, flaming bricks, arson and steel bars, random attacks on
buses, and airport and mass transit shutdowns. Among the most
provocative acts was an organized break-in at the Hong Kong legislature
where “activists” vandalized the building and hung the British Union Jack
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“U.S., British and Hong Kong’s colonial flags are prominent in these
confrontations, along with defaced flags and other symbols of People’s
“The New York Times described the airport shutdown: “The protests at
the airport have been deeply tactical, as the largely leaderless movement
strikes at a vital economic artery. Hong Kong International Airport, which
opened in 1998, the year after China reclaimed the territory from Britain,
serves as a gateway to the rest of Asia. Sleek and well run, the airport
accommodates nearly 75 million passengers a year and handles more
than 5.1 million metric tons of cargo.” (Aug. 14)
“U.S. media have consistently labeled these violent actions “prodemocracy.” But are they?
“Even if the leaders of these reactionary actions decide to pull back from
the brink and recalibrate their tactics, based on the Chinese
government’s strong warnings, it is important to understand a movement
that has such strong U.S. support…
“‘The ideologues in Western governments never cease in their efforts to
engineer unrest against governments that are not to their liking, even
though their actions have caused misery and chaos in country after
country in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Now they are
trying the same trick in China,’ China Daily explained on July 3.
“Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador to Britain, told reporters that their
country was still acting as Hong Kong’s colonial master. (,
July 4)
“‘A spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry claimed Tuesday that
recent comments from American lawmakers [Nancy] Pelosi (D-Ca.) and
[Mitch] McConnell (R-Ky.) demonstrate that Washington’s real goal is to
incite chaos in the city,’ according to CNBC. ‘By neglecting and distorting
the truth, they whitewashed violent crimes as a struggle for human rights
and freedom.’”
Also see for other detailed evidence of
American government officials’ direct support for the CIA funded color revolution in Hong Kong.
Interfering in the affairs of another state incidentally is a violation of international law.24
As a factor in a probability equation calculating the possibility of the American DoD either
intentionally causing a containment breech at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or launching a
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

DARPA mutated version of coronavirus in China the covert attacks on Hong Kong could be part
of the “impunity” factor, and/or a “stage 1” factor.
“China detaining millions of Uyghurs? Serious problems with claims by
US-backed NGO and far-right researcher ‘led by God’ against Beijing
“Claims that China has detained millions of Uyghur Muslims are based
largely on two studies. A closer look at these papers reveals US
government backing, absurdly shoddy methodologies, and a raptureready evangelical researcher named Adrian Zenz.
By Ajit Singh and Max Blumenthal
“The US House of Representatives passed the Uyghur Human Rights
Policy Act on December 3, legislation which calls for the Donald Trump
administration to impose sanctions against China over allegations that
Beijing has detained millions of Muslim-majority Uyghurs in the western
region of Xinjiang.
“To drum up support for the sanctions bill, Western governments and
media outlets have portrayed the People’s Republic as a human rights
violator on par with Nazi Germany. Republican Rep. Chris Smith, for
instance, denounced the Chinese government for what he called the
“mass internment of millions on a scale not seen since the Holocaust,” in
“modern-day concentration camps.”
“The claim that China has detained millions of ethnic Uyghurs in its
Xinjiang region is repeated with increasing frequency, but little scrutiny
is ever applied. Yet a closer look at the figure and how it was obtained
reveals a serious deficiency in data.
“While this extraordinary claim is treated as unassailable in the West, it
is, in fact, based on two highly dubious “studies.”
“The first, by the US government-backed Network of Chinese Human
Rights Defenders, formed its estimate by interviewing a grand total of
eight people.
“The second study relied on flimsy media reports and speculation. It was
authored by Adrian Zenz, a far-right fundamentalist Christian who
opposes homosexuality and gender equality, supports “scriptural
spanking” of children, and believes he is “led by God” on a “mission”
against China.
“As Washington ratchets up pressure on China, Zenz has been lifted out
of obscurity and transformed almost overnight into a go-to pundit on
Xinjiang. He has testified before Congress, providing commentary in
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

outlets from the Wall Street Journal to Democracy Now!, and delivering
expert quotes in the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists’
recent “China Cables” report. His Twitter bio notes that he is “moving
across the Atlantic” from his native Germany.
“Before Grayzone editor Max Blumenthal questioned Zenz about his
religious “mission,” at a recent event about Xinjiang inside the US Capitol,
he had received almost entirely uncritical promotion from Western
“The Network of Chinese Human Rights Defenders, which first
popularized the “millions detained” figure, has also been able to operate
without a hint of media scrutiny.
“Washington-backed NGO claims millions detained after interviewing
eight people
“The ‘millions detained’ figure was first popularized by a Washington, DCbased NGO that is backed by the US government, the Network of Chinese
Human Rights Defenders (CHRD).
“In a 2018 report submitted to the UN Committee on the Elimination of
Racial Discrimination – often misrepresented in Western media as a UNauthored report – CHRD “estimate[d] that roughly one million members
of ethnic Uyghurs have been sent to ‘re-education’ detention camps and
roughly two million have been forced to attend ‘re-education’ programs
in Xinjiang.” According to CHRD, this figure was ‘based on interviews and
limited data.’
“While CHRD states that it interviewed dozens of ethnic Uyghurs in the
course of its study, their enormous estimate was ultimately based on
interviews with exactly eight Uyghur individuals.
“Based on this absurdly small sample of research subjects in an area
whose total population is 20 million, CHRD “extrapolated estimates” that
‘at least 10% of villagers […] are being detained in re-education detention
camps, and 20% are being forced to attend day/evening re-education
camps in the villages or townships, totaling 30% in both types of camps.’
“Applying these estimated rates to the entirety of Xinjiang, CHRD arrived
at the figures submitted to the UN claiming that one million ethnic
Uyghurs have been detained in “re-education detention camps” and two
million more have been “forced to attend day/evening re-education
“Thanks to questionable sources like the CHRD, the United States
government has accused China of “arbitrarily detaining 800,000 to
possibly more than two million Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and other
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Muslims in internment camps designed to erase religious and ethnic
“Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 2018, State
Department official Scott Busby stated this this “is the U.S. government
assessment, backed by our intelligence community and open source
“The Chinese government has rejected US allegations, and claims that it
has in fact established “vocational education and training centers […] to
prevent the breeding and spread of terrorism and religious extremism.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has stated that “there [are] no so-called ‘reeducation camps’ in Xinjiang at all. The vocational education and training
centers legally operated in Xinjiang aim to help a small number of people
affected by terrorist and extremist ideologies and equip them with skills,
so that they can be self-reliant and re-integrate into society.”
“In its mounting pressure campaign against China, the US is not only
relying on CHRD for data; it is directly funding its operations. As Ben
Norton and Ajit Singh previously reported for The Grayzone, CHRD
receives significant financial support from Washington’s regime-change
arm, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).
“The NGO has spent years campaigning on behalf of extreme right-wing
opposition figures who celebrate colonialism and call for the
“Westernization” of China.
“‘Leading expert’ on Xinjiang relies on speculation and one questionable
media report
“The second key source for claims that China has detained millions of
Uyghur Muslims is Adrian Zenz. He is a senior fellow in China studies at
the far-right Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, which was
established by the US government in 1983.
“The Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation is an outgrowth of the
National Captive Nations Committee, a group founded by Ukrainian
nationalist Lev Dobriansky to lobby against any effort for detente with
the Soviet Union. Its co-chairman, Yaroslav Stetsko, was a top leader of
the fascist OUN-B militia that fought alongside Nazi Germany during its
occupation of Ukraine in World War Two. Together, the two helped found
the World Anti-Communist League that was described by journalist Joe
Conason as ‘the organizational haven for neo-Nazis, fascists, and antiSemitic extremists from two dozen countries...’”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The full report on the above link is well worth reading.
China’s Uyghur Problem: The Recruitment of Uyghur Muslims to Join Al
Qaeda, By F. William Engdahl, Global Research, October 06, 2018
The ‘Uyghur Problem’
“…The true state of affairs in China’s Xinjiang Province regarding Uyghurs
is not possible to independently verify, whether such camps exist and if
so who is there and under what conditions. What is known, however, is
the fact that NATO intelligence agencies, including that of Turkey and of
the US, along with Saudi Arabia, have been involved in recruiting and
deploying thousands of Chinese Uyghur Muslims to join Al Qaeda and
other terror groups in Syria in recent years. This side of the equation
warrants a closer look, the side omitted by Reuters or UN Ambassador
“According to Syrian media cited in, there are presently an
estimated 18,000 ethnic Uyghurs in Syria most concentrated in a village
on the Turkish border to Syria. Since 2013 such Uyghur soldiers have gone
from combat alongside Al Qaeda in Syria and returned to China’s Xinjiang
where they have carried out various terrorist acts. This is the tip of a nasty
NATO-linked project to plant the seeds of terror and unrest in China.
Xinjiang is a lynchpin of China’s Belt Road Initiative, the crossroads of
strategic oil and gas pipelines from Kazakhstan, Russia and a prime target
of CIA intrigue since decades.
“Since at least 2011 at the start of the NATO war against Bashar al Assad’s
Syria, Turkey had played a key role in facilitating the flow of Chinese
Uyghur people to become Jihadists in Syria. I deliberately use “had” tense
to give benefit of the doubt if it still is the case today or if it has become
an embarrassment for Erdogan and Turkish intelligence. In any case it
seems that thousands of Uyghurs are holed up in Syria, most around Idlib,
the reported last outpost of anti-regime terrorists.
Washington and ETIM
“In an excellent analysis of China’s Uyghur terror history, Steven
Sahiounie, a Syrian journalist with 21st Century Wire, notes that a key
organization behind the radicalization of Chinese Uyghur youth is the East
Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and its political front, the Turkestan
Islamic Party (TIP), which is also known as “Katibat Turkistani.” He cites a
speech in Istanbul in 1995 by Turkey’s Erdogan, then Mayor, who
declared, “Eastern Turkestan is not only the home of the Turkic peoples
but also the cradle of Turkic history, civilization and culture…” Eastern
Turkestan is Xinjiang.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China


“ETIM today is headed by Anwar Yusuf Turani, self-proclaimed Prime
Minister of a government in exile which notably is based in Washington
DC. ETIM moved to Washington at a time the US State Department listed
it as a terrorist organization, curiously enough. According to a report in a
Turkish investigative magazine, Turk Pulse, Turani’s organization’s
“activities for the government in exile are based on a report entitled ‘The
Xinjiang Project.’ That was written by former senior CIA officer Graham E.
Fuller in 1998 for the Rand Corporation and revised in 2003 under the
title ‘The Xinjiang Problem.’”
“‘I have written extensively in my book, The Lost Hegemon, about career
senior CIA operative Graham Fuller. Former Istanbul CIA station chief,
Fuller was one of the architects of the Reagan-Bush Iran-Contra affair,
and a prime CIA sponsor or handler of Gülen who facilitated Gulen’s USA
exile. He was also by his own admission, in Istanbul the night of the failed
2016 coup. In 1999 during the end of the Russian Yelstin era, Fuller
“The policy of guiding the evolution of Islam and of
helping them against our adversaries worked
marvelously well in Afghanistan against the Russians. The
same doctrines can still be used to destabilize what
remains of Russian power, and especially to counter the
Chinese influence in Central Asia.”
“This is what the covert US weaponization of ETIM is aimed at. Like most
radical Sunni Jihadist groups, Turani’s ETIM got funding as most radical
Sunni Jihadist groups from Saudi Arabia.
“In the late 1990s, Hasan Mahsum, also known as Abu-Muhammad alTurkestani, founder of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, moved
ETIM’s headquarters to Kabul, taking shelter under Taliban-controlled
Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, ETIM leaders met with Osama bin Laden and
other leaders of the CIA-trained Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan to coordinate actions across Central Asia. When
the Pakistani military assassinated al-Turkestani in 2003 Turani became
head of ETIM, and took his roadshow to Washington.
“In his own study of Xinjiang, the CIA’s Graham E. Fuller noted that Saudi
Arabian groups had disseminated extremist Wahhabi religious literature
and possibly small arms through sympathizers in Xinjiang, and that young
Turkic Muslims had been recruited to study at madrasas in Pakistan,
Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia. He adds that Uyghurs from Xinjiang also
fought alongside Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Fuller noted,
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Uyghurs are indeed in touch with Muslim groups
outside Xinjiang, some of them have been radicalized
into broader jihadist politics in the process, a handful
were earlier involved in guerrilla or terrorist training in
Afghanistan, and some are in touch with international
Muslim mujahideen struggling for Muslim causes of
independence worldwide.”
“The January 2018 Pentagon National Defense Strategy policy document
explicitly named China along with Russia as main strategic “threats” to
continued US supremacy. It states, “Inter-state strategic competition, not
terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security.”
“Explicitly, and this is new, the Pentagon paper does not cite a military
threat but an economic one. It states, “China and Russia are now
undermining the international order from within the system by exploiting
its benefits while simultaneously undercutting its principles and ‘rules of
the road.’” The escalating trade war against China, threats of sanctions
over allegations of Uyghur detention camps in Xinjiang, threats of
sanctions if China buys Russian defense equipment, all is aimed at
disruption of the sole emerging threat to a Washington global order, one
that is not based on freedom or justice but rather on fear and tyranny.
How China’s authorities are trying to deal with this full assault is another
issue. The context of events in Xinjiang however needs to be made clear.
The West and especially Washington is engaged in full-scale irregular war
against the stability of China.”
The strange thing is, “Inter-state strategic competition” is just a spin phrase on “free-market”
trade. Yes, nations trade, however it doesn’t have to be a lose-lose scenario or even a
competition. Socialism isn’t about competition really, capitalism is. Win-win scenarios are
possible when people cooperate in a complimentary fashion. Even Adam Smith agreed with
that. There doesn’t have to be “losers” in the international marketplace. Good business is
mutually beneficial. Cut-throat business is bad business.
Xinjiang-related US bill ‘imperialistic interference’: Turkish party head,
Xinhua, Dec 17 2019
“‘The Xinjiang-related bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives is
a flagrant intervention in China's domestic affairs and violates
international law and ethics,’ Dogu Perincek, chairman of Turkey's
Patriotic Party, has said.
“‘We condemn this, we protest it,’ said Perincek, calling the U.S. bill
‘imperialistic interference,’ in an interview with Xinhua.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“On Dec. 3, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the so-called
"Uygur Human Rights Policy Act of 2019," maliciously attacking the
human rights conditions in Xinjiang and slandering China's deradicalization and anti-terrorism efforts.”
“China has expressed strong indignation over and firm opposition to the
passage of the bill.
“The passage of the bill does not reflect reality on the ground given the
high quality of living of ethnic minorities in China's Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region, noted Perincek.”
Another example of widespread disregard of Article 2.4 of the UN Charter: Non-intervention -
the prohibition of the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political
independence of any state, by the US taxpayer supported CIA of the USA, while the UN General
Assembly, Security Council and International Criminal Court do nothing. In fact, though the
International Criminal Court has started investigations into war crimes in Afghanistan and
Palestine, there are so many violations of international law by the United States, the ICCs failure
to investigate crimes of aggression in Hong Kong, Xinjian and Tibet could perhaps should be part
of the “empowerment” factor in the probability equation of American intelligence (possibly
effected by Chinese agents) either causing a containment breech at the Wuhan Institute of
Virology, or launching a bioweapons attack.
American efforts to destabilize Tibet began decades ago.
World News Briefs; Dalai Lama Group Says It Got Money from C.I.A. By
the Associated Press, Oct. 2, 1998
CIA Gave Aid to Tibetan Exiles in ‘60s, Files Show, By Jim Mann, Sep. 15,
“For much of the 1960s, the CIA provided the Tibetan exile movement
with $1.7 million a year for operations against China, including an annual
subsidy of $180,000 for the Dalai Lama, according to newly released U.S.
intelligence documents.
“The money for the Tibetans and the Dalai Lama was part of the CIA’s
worldwide effort during the height of the Cold War to undermine
Communist governments, particularly in the Soviet Union and China.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“When the CIA secretly funded and trained Tibetan exiles for insurgency
against Chinese rule
“Part of an experimental Berlin Film Festival programme, exhibition
Shadow Circus documents unlikely alliance between exiled Tibetans and
the CIA
“It expands upon a 1998 documentary in which Tibetans tell how they
were chosen by the CIA, and US spy agency officers explain rationale for
supporting them, by Clarence Tsui, 26 Feb, 2019
“Running until March 10 at the Savvy Contemporary gallery in a
crematorium turned cultural complex on the northern edge of Berlin, the
exhibition is an expansion of The Shadow Circus: The CIA in Tibet, a BBC
documentary directed by Indian-based Tibetan filmmaker Tenzing Soram
and his partner Ritu Sarin in 1998.
“In the film, which is showing on a loop as part of the exhibition, former
combatants – among them Tenzing’s late father, Lhamo Tsering – talk
about leaving India for the United States to receive training in a highaltitude camp in the state of Colorado. Having not even seen a car before,
these men learned the basics of guerilla warfare, and even did airborne
drills to prepare for potential parachuting missions into Tibet.
“‘We see a letter from the Dalai Lama to the president of
the US [Dwight Eisenhower] no one has known existed.
There was information of the aid they were giving the
resistance, the detailed CIA reports, where you can see
the figures – how many dollars they are giving the
resistance or the Dalai Lama. That allows us to delve even
more into that operation.’
“Tenzing says the bulk of the additional material being shown at the
exhibition came from people heavily involved in the operation. There
were interviews he could not fit into the hour-long documentary back in
1998, and also artefacts drawn from his late father’s possessions and
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Though Project Shadow Circus may have officially ended, the interference in Tibet’s domestic
affairs continues via the Dalai Lama’s statements praising self-immolations, and real terrorists
the CIA flies in from Syria and other locations.
China accuses Dalai Lama of Nazi policies, Sun 25 Mar 2012 AP
“China Tibet Online commentary claims exiled Buddhist leader supports
self-immolations and racial segregation
“The Chinese commentary called the Dalai Lama a ‘tricky liar skilled in
double-dealing’ who wants to build a ‘Berlin Wall’ of ethnic segregation
and confrontation. ‘The remarks of the Dalai Lama remind us of the
uncontrolled and cruel Nazi during the second world war ... How similar
it is to the Holocaust committed by Hitler on the Jewish!’ the commentary
said in criticizing the Dalai Lama’s call for high levels of autonomy for
Tibetan areas.
“It also said the Dalai Lama was controlled by the US and his relatives
were working for the CIA. It added that the Dalai Lama, by praising the
courage of those who died from self-immolations, left no doubt among
his followers that one way for them to earn his prayers was for them to
set themselves on fire.”
As of June 5, 2017, there have been 150 self-immolations reported in Tibet as of February 27,
2009 when Tapey, a young monk from Kirti Monastery, set himself on fire in the marketplace in
Ngawa City, Ngawa County, Sichuan. Though the mainstream American news media generally
applauds these horrid acts, anyone who knows anything about Buddhism knows with certainty
the first law in Buddhism is: “protect life.” That American intelligence officers and agents have so
radicalized otherwise innocent and good Buddhist monks is a level of evil beyond imagining. Again,
useful indicators in “Stage 1,” and impunity factors.
Desensitization of American voters via assassinations
With each new act of aggression against a foreign nation, each new international crime
committed by the American DoD, the American voters become more and more desensitized to
the murder of American “targeted” human beings. Muslims, and more recently Chinese are
targets of the American disinformation machine which dehumanizes these humans as groups
and individuals making it all the easier, more “excusable” and in fact a “good idea(!)” to kill and
torture people in these groups.
Legendary Iranian Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Soleimani
Assassinated on Trump's Order
“Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force
of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and Abu Mahdi al-
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Muhandis, the second-in-command of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units
(PMU), have been killed in US airstrikes in the Iraqi capital Baghdad.”
This kind of “targeted assassination” is illegal under American and international law, and most
people would simply call it murder.
Iran is a close ally of China.
In November 2016 Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehgan and his Chinese counterpart, Chang
Wanquan, signed an agreement on November 14 pledging closer military cooperation in a
number of areas including military training and counterterrorism operations. Both sides also
pledged to hold joint military exercises in the near future.
China, Russia and Iran performed joint naval exercises in late December 2019.
China, Russia and Iran begin joint naval drills, December 28, 2019
“The four-day exercise in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman comes at a
time of heightened tensions between US and Iran.”
The improbable arrest of Harvard Professor Charles Lieber who worked for DARPA and at the
Wuhan University of Technology
The arrest of Harvard Professor Charles Lieber who worked for DARPA and at WUT is a very
unusual event.
Prominent Harvard Chemist Arrested for Concealing Ties to China
“The Department of Justice also released the names of two Chinese
researchers who allegedly acted against US interests, Jan 29, 2020 by
Amy Schleunes
“Charles Lieber, chair of the department of chemistry and chemical
biology at Harvard University, has been arrested and charged with one
count of making a false statement to federal authorities, according to a
Department of Justice press release published yesterday (January 28).
“‘Unbeknownst to Harvard University beginning in 2011, Lieber became
a ‘Strategic Scientist’ at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China
and was a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from
in or about 2012 to 2017,” the justice department statement says. At the
same time, he also received funding from US federal agencies, including
the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Department of Defense, which
require researchers to disclose if they receive aid from foreign
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

governments or foreign entities. Lieber did: In connection with the
Chinese programs, he received $50,000 USD per month, living expenses
of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the
time), and more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT.
Neither Harvard nor the federal agencies were aware of the connection
or payments until the NIH started to inquire about Lieber’s ties to China.”
The timing of his arrest, and that he is a professor of chemical biology in Wuhan, and the CIA’s
long history with the CIA raise questions. The world of spies and spooks is sometimes called the
“land of smoke and mirrors” for a reason. The upper echelon on those organizations are often or
usually very good at obscuring facts ostensibly designed to protect national security, but in fact
more often used to obscure their own licentious perfidy. His arrest at that particular time could
simply be a “red herring,” (non-relevant event or person) designed to “stir the mud” there in
Wuhan, while also providing a public stab at China in academic circles for “stealing American
secrets.” In any case, it was American Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA)
funded Galveston National Laboratory in Texas that apparently designed and to some extent at
least managed the Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to their website.

Section 8 Probability theory and the etiology of COVID-19
Factors to be considered in attempting to construct a probabilistic model of the etiology of
COVID-19 include the following.
1. The probability of COVID-19 appearing in Wuhan China in winter
2. The probability of COVID-19 appearing in Wuhan China compared to anywhere else in
China or anywhere else in the world
3. The probability of a new virus emerging with a large number of novel characteristics
(high capacity for mutation, usually long delay onset of symptoms, immune system
attack, rapid infection and spread)
4. The probability of Wuhan being the location of China’s largest virology research institute
and that institute being under the direction of an American virology research
organization25 under contract by the largest American defense department research
organization, DARPA26
25 According to the Galveston National laboratory - Infections Disease Research center they are directing
the Wuhan maximum biocontainment laboratories (MCLs).
26 &
Animal Models for Assessing Countermeasures to Bioterrorism Agents by National Research Council,
Division on Earth and Life Studies, Institute for Laboratory Animal Research, Committee on Animal Models
for Assessing Countermeasures to Bioterrorism Agents
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

5. The probability that the COVID-19 should appear just before Chinese New Year’s, given
that more Chinese travel more often and longer distances during New Year’s holiday
than any other time of the year
6. The probability that DARPA should also happen to be investigating coronavirus, the use
of bats as transmission vehicles, and their study of bat migration pathways, given that:
a. Wuhan is south of Beijing
b. Many bat species migrate north in spring time
7. The probability that viruses and their mutations are extremely unpredictable, and
DARPA is a research facility
8. The probability that disregarding laws prohibiting the manufacturing and storage of
biological pathogens, the American Department of Defense (DoD) breaks international
laws with impunity in pursuing resource wealth and geostrategic goals, and DARPA
breaks international law with impunity doing its research on weaponized pathogens
(thus implying the DoD may also well harbor no inhibitions in regards to launching a
bioweapon attack against China as large parts of their research is illegal anyways)

9. The probability that key American government individuals (the Dulles brothers) helped
bring the Nazis to power, protected them after the war and the CIA’s known record of
attempting to overthrow more than 40 foreign governments demonstrates a habit and
pattern of behavior of impunity to law and ethics suggesting that launching a bioweapons attack on China is not inconceivable
10. The probability that WWII provided the opportunity for the USA to become the sole
superpower in the world and foreign wars help maintain that hegemony
11. The probability that the Nazis also did extensive research on biological and chemical
warfare, and the CIA brought about 1,500 Nazi scientists to work for them after WWII
12. The probability that the Nazis engaged in genocide and eugenics – American history
started with the genocide of the native American population and the United States has
been engaged in nearly continual warfare ever since. Nazi eugenics was based on an
earlier American version.
13. By selectively targeting older Asian men with pre-existing comorbid medical conditions,
COVID-19 has the potential to function in a manner similar to that described by
eugenics; because it appears to target Asians, it has the potential to also effect a
genocide, though if that will happen is entirely unknown. It is within the prevue of
DARPA to find answers to that kind of question. That is what they are mandated to
determine via their research projects.
14. By the time the USA dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki Japan had
already lost the war and those cities held no particular strategic advantage leading most
to believe the nuclear weapons were dropped primarily to research the short and longterm human and environmental effects of atomic weapons.
15. American foreign policy is extremely aggressive, frequently initiates illegal wars,
frequently engages in war crimes (starting a war is a war crime) which could be
considered genocides, crimes against humanity with utter impunity to international law.
Though the USA has fought in many wars since WWII, none of them have been on US
territory, and thus Americans might have a very casual attitude towards starting wars
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

16. The American Defence Planning Guide and two top government officials recently cited
China as the primary target/enemy of the United States
17. Defense Department planners in the USA definitely believe that China’s growing
economic and political influence threaten its dominance, and consequently are
compelled by mandates in the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) to diminish China
economically in order to maintain global dominance and a biological weapons attack
could accomplish that.27
18. Harvard University has a long history of very close association with the CIA, and the
unprecedented arrest of Harvard Professor Charles Lieber chair of the department of
chemistry and chemical biology at Harvard University and also a lead researcher in
Wuhan University is also an extremely improbable event.
Take just two factors, for example the relative sizes of Wuhan compared to China and one finds
the probability of COVID-19 appearing in Wuhan specifically to be somewhere between one in
500,000 and one in a million. Now take another factor, the probability that a Harvard professor
working for the Department of Defence, should happen to be working at Wuhan University.
How many Harvard professors are arrested on Federal charges? What is the probability of that?
One in a hundred? One in a thousand?
Taking a middle road, calculate the odds at 1 in 500. Now, take the most conservative
probability of COVID-19 appearing randomly in Wuhan, of all places in China, 1/500,000
(0.000002) and multiply that times the probability of a Harvard University professor working for
the American Defense Department holding a key role in the exact location where the COVID-19
started, and then being arrested by federal authorities in the USA: 1/500 (0.002).
0.000002 X 0.002 = 0.000000004
That’s a one in four billion probability from those two factors alone. Multiply that times the
improbability of the other very odd but related factors listed above and that number becomes
one in a hundred trillion very quickly.
Thus, the probability of COVID-19 appearing randomly in Wuhan specifically, at that particular
time given the environmental factors, the goals outlined in the DPG, the specific research
DARPA was and is working on, statements by top American officials regarding China, and so on,
and COVID-19 appearing randomly in Wuhan quickly becomes highly unlikely. The results of any
statistical analysis28 of events leading to the outbreak of COVID-19 will be the same.
27 China’s stock markets slump on coronavirus black swan economic impact,
28 Virtually any statistical test will yield the same results. Chi Square (is there a relationship between DoD
activities and foreign deaths?), correlation (DoD presence-foreign deaths; correlational analysis between
federal arrests and criminal activity…), T-Test (how is Wuhan different from Xi’an?), down to the z-test (is
the Wuhan Institute of Virology a “normal” Chinese research facility compared to others, like for example
how many Chinese labs producing deadly pathogens are designed by and operate under the guidance of
American Harvard professors also working for American DoD?), and the results will be the same.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Conversely one could do simple correlational tests between DoD activity and death in foreign
countries. Take for example AFRICOM29
. One of its goals is to erode and undermine Chinese
business development in Africa. African leaders may be pleased with the presence of foreign
military troops there to support them, and they will get that support as long as they cooperate
in stymieing Chinese business interests. Just doing business with China or Russia invites
American covertly driven conflicts in foreign nations. All kinds of interesting correlates can be
found in the developing world if one wishes to look for them, keeping in mind China and Russia
are now the main targets of American aggression. Although corporate controlled American
mainstream media has been very effective in persuading most Americans to have an
“unfavorable view” of China30, most European leaders are not so gullible, and so the US has to
go it alone in confronting China around the world, except for the UK which is willing to follow
the USA anywhere, and France which receives extensive American military support in its African
The American political and military focus on China began with the ‘Pivot to Asia’ after Hillary
Clinton authored America's Pacific Century, in Foreign Policy31 in 2011, the same year the Syrian
Civil war started, the Egyptian Revolution began, the leader of Libya Muammar al-Gaddafi was
tortured and murdered starting that proxy war, the political crisis in Yemen began leading to the
proxy war and so on. Correlations between Hillary Clinton led interventions while working as
Obama’s Secretary of State in foreign nations and extreme violence, torture and death are very
high.32 In fact one could build a statistically based argument that the rise of both Clintons on the
political landscape of the US is highly correlated with violent DoD driven death.33
Most correlates are easy to find. American military forces went in to Iraq for the stated purpose
of “liberating” them from Saddam Hussein who was alleged to have weapons of mass
destruction and over a million people were killed.
Biological weapons however are far more cost-effective that conventional military and one wellplaced DARPA contracted professor or even an unpaid foreign agent can “facilitate” the deaths
of very large numbers of targeted individuals, while slowing an entire national economy at
29 AFRICOM is tasked to militarily support American and French backed leaders in African countries and
otherwise protect Euro-American political and economic goals for the continent.
30 August 13, 2019 “Sixty percent of US citizens now hold generally unfavorable view of China,” according
to a survey published in August 2019 by the Pew Research Center. “This is up from 47% in 2018 and at the
highest level since Pew Research Center began asking the question.”
32 She however was only following traditional American beliefs in Manifest Destiny and American
Exceptionalism, both of which are foundation maxims rationalizing and driving American global
hegemonic efforts designed to reign over the earth in perpetuity. Eliminating China as an economic
competitor would obviously be a high priority in actualizing those efforts.
33 One could argue that the Afghan and Iraq wars started during the Administration of George W. Bush,
however he launched those wars on the advice of DCI George Tenet who was appointed by President
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

relatively low cost. DARPA’s budget in 2019 was a paltry $3.427 billion, about 1/10th that of the
All of the above factors would have to be quantified in calculating the precise probabilities
involved in COVID-19 naturally occurring in Wuhan at that time vs. accidental containment
breech vs. intentional containment breech vs. a more evolved bioweapons attack in Wuhan in
November/December 2019.34
At this time, given the available data, the best one can calculate the odds is approximating
50/50, however to say or suggest the appearance of COVID-19 in Wuhan at that time was
definitely natural and definitely not intentional is clearly erroneous based on a huge number of
political and economic micro and macro trends and their derivative factors’ probabilities.
In regards to “macro-trends” one finds a historic trend in the US to always have a primary hated
The “Transfer of Savagery”
“Presidential Power and National Violence: James K. Polk's Rhetorical
Transfer of Savagery
“President James Knox Polk is often lauded for his achievements as
president, including the territorial acquisition of the western portion of
the nation. Critical attention to this legacy mostly focuses on his
rhetorical strategy for putting the nation into war with Mexico. To date,
no studies focus on Polk’s rhetorical strategy for ending the war. In this
article, I examine Polk’s end-of war rhetoric, attending to his
rationalizations for exiting the war, his justification for resuming
diplomatic relations with Mexico, and his identification of a new enemy
requiring presidential and national attention. I argue that Polk’s pivot
from Mexicans to Indians rhetorically transferred tropes of savagery to
Indians, reenergized violence against Indians, and facilitated the
institutionalization of management of Indian affairs via the creation of
the Department of the Interior. I conclude that rhetorical critics should
closely attend to the way end-of-war rhetoric enables presidents to
transition from one enemy to another while reaping institutional
Rhetoric & Public Affairs, Vol. 19, Number 3, Fall 2016, pp. 365-396
(Can be downloaded from JSTOR and
The USA is doing this now, transferring the War on Terror into an asymmetric war on China,
which began with Hillary Clinton’s Pivot to Asia policy.
34 And unfortunately this author left his supercomputer in his other pants pocket and thus has to calculate
the probabilities involved the old fashioned way, using his brain.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The savagery of American domestic and foreign policies cannot and should not be
underestimated in building probability models of American DoD exploits around the world and
the probability the current COVID-19 epidemic being one of those exploits is at least 50%.
Frozen corona virus and/or already infected bats could so easily have been flown into China
from the US on a diplomatic flight,
35 however it is equally likely they were already doing
research on coronavirus and other potential bioweapons at the Wuhan Institute of Virology -
with all the best intentions in the world. The coronavirus could have first mutated into COVID-19
within a host bat, or have been genetically engineered and then implanted in a bat. The odds
might be considered 50/50 however it seems unlikely Wuhan Institute of Virology would create
COVID, as there are multi-national studies (Japanese, Kyrgyz and Chinese) suggesting ACE at
least and possibly ACE2 are ethnic specific.
Section 9 Predictable Chinese and American government synchrony on the natural
causes of COVID-19
Mainstream American media (MSM) and Global Times (China) newspapers agree that any link
between the Wuhan Novo-Corona Virus (COVID-19) and the Wuhan Institute of Virology is a
“conspiracy theory.” It appears both may be somewhat less than candid, albeit for different
On the American side – Profit motive and use of strategic disinformation
MSM in most cases are either corporate owned, or at least corporate dependent for advertising.
Thus they have a profit motive in debunking any belief that a novel virus appearing in China
might have any connection to a virus research center in Wuhan China, especially a research
center that is intimately connected with American Defense Advanced Research Project Agency
(DARPA) funded Galveston National Laboratory - Infectious Disease Research for Global Health
Security in Texas USA.
For its part US administration officials would not wish any suspicions aroused it might have
unleashed a biological weapon in Wuhan which has killed more than a thousand people and has
the potential to kill far more. (The total infection number soared to 68,500 with 1,665 deaths as
of 24:00 Feb 15.
Such an action would be a flagrant violation of innumerable American and international laws
and most assuredly end with several administration and defense department officials going to
prison for extended periods of time. Thus, US administration and the mainstream media it
totally controls are very highly motivated to keep its (potential) role in the COVID-19 epidemic
flying completely under the radar forever.
“Plausible deniability” always has been a trademark characteristic of American covert
operations. Everyone may know what happened, why, when, where and by who, but if it cannot
U.S. Consulate General Wuhan
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

be proved, American DoD/CIA cannot be blamed, and anyone with the temerity to suggest they
are to blame will be lambasted as a “conspiracy theorist,” at best.
Unfortunately, in a case such as the COVID-19, knowing the genesis of this novel virus may be
some help in developing a vaccine and cure. Virologists attempting to create vaccines
sometimes build into those vaccines predictions regarding how the virus may change over time.
Knowing the genesis of any specific virus can help in that predictive modeling.
Thus, denying some obvious potential causes for the genesis of this disease is counterproductive
to protecting the world from it.37
Does the American government operate in secret to destroy entire nations? Obviously yes. The
CIA’s budget in 2020 is US$ 42.4 billion in 2020 and that is only a small percentage of their total
income given their influence in world-wide organized crime. The color revolution in Hong Kong
for example is an example of organized crime. Virtually everything the CIA does is one form or
another of organized crime and their business is conspiracy, that is, they work in secret with
foreigners they hire as agents to engage in illegal actions within their own countries.38
If COVID-19 was intentionally released as a bioweapon will DoD use another bioweapon in the
near future against China?
That seems unlikely because they use statistical modeling to keep the probability of their
detection in covert operations low. Here probability equations bifurcate. On one hand the virus
can and probably will keep mutating both in humans, bats and possibly jump to other animal
species. On the other hand, DARPA may have created a whole series of related COVID-19 viruses
currently sitting in the freezers of intelligence officers or agents distributed around China
waiting for the “greenlight” to release them. That would be most unfortunate indeed, but it is
not inconceivable give the known habits and patterns of behavior of the American DoD. As Yogi
Berra said, “It isn't over till it’s over.”
Blaming the victim as part of a propaganda war
Blaming the victim of either a naturally occurring disaster or a genuine criminal assault is
counterproductive to healing and a despicable act, and various factions have used the COVID-19
epidemic to further their own anti-China agendas.
Despicable Taiwan authorities make ill use of coronavirus, February 7,
37 Thus, putting this writer in a rather awkward position. Publish the contextual background leading to
potential American motivation to launch a bioweapons attack against China as a social obligation assisting
in finding a vaccine and cure, or join the conspiracy of silence accepting the false premise that the
appearance of 2019-nCov must be of natural origin. Having known many American military and
intelligence officers since my earliest youth and the very “cold-blooded” nature of some of them, I
decided my duty to warn outweighed my fear of ridicule.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Touting 'China collapse' amid virus sinister, by Zhang Yansheng, February
7, 2020
“China doomers are ill, not the Chinese economy, February 7, 2020
“Uncertainty remains over the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, but one
prediction that has since been verified is how the epidemic has revitalized
the chorus of foreign officials, experts, and reporters in their relentless
push of conspiracy theories regarding the collapse of China and its
economy, or in short, ‘China doomers.’
“The majority of what this foreign chorus sings consists of old songs on
how the impending collapse of the Chinese economy will happen as a
result of the country's political and economic systems...
“Entering this arena is Walter Russel Mead, a professor at Bard College in
New York. Mead, a well-documented China doomer, recently wrote an
article for the Wall Street Journal that featured the extreme headline:
‘China is the real sick man of Asia.’
“For those unaware of the historical background of the phrase ‘sick man
of Asia,’ it reflects what Japanese imperialists used to refer to the country
before and during its invasion of China.
“Using this phrase sickens the Chinese to the stomach, especially during
such a sensitive period where China is racing to save lives from the
“As expected, other than the deeply insensitive headline, Mead’s article
features familiar and baseless criticism on China, and filled with over-thetop predictions on the country's demise.
“Mead argues the coronavirus outbreak reveals China's brittleness and
how the country's financial market and economy is teetering on the brink
of collapse. The piece also mentions how the fall will impact the global
economy and international community. Mead fails to offer data or
evidence to support his theories and instead offers only empty and yet
serious words.
“To be blunt, refuting such a hatchet job of this magnitude written by a
silly media puppet desperate for attention would be a waste of time. But
Mead has now joined foreign officials like US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, along with experts and media in their attack against China
during this sensitive time. Their true purpose is to weaken China and its
economy. Concerted efforts of this nature must not remain unchecked.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Clearly the author(s) of the above article make valid arguments, however the motivation
attributed to those who spread disinformation may be incorrect. Though it is possible Mead and
those like him are motivated by ego-needs (“silly media puppet desperate for attention”), it is
more likely most China bashers ascribe to an organized and well-paid political agenda to attack
In one of the most cynical uses of disinformation one finds the following:
Antagonists exploit Dr Li’s death to slander China
By Liu Xin, Hu Yuwei and Chen Qingqing Source: Global Times, February
8, 2020
“Chinese mainland netizens warned that Hong Kong secessionists and
foreign entities are exploiting the grief expressed over the death of
coronavirus "whistleblower" doctor Li Wenliang and are spreading antigovernment rhetoric on social media.
“Li, one of the eight ‘whistleblowers’ in Wuhan, capital of Central China’s
Hubei Province, tried to warn medical personnel about the coronavirus
outbreak but was reprimanded by local police, and eventually died of
novel coronavirus pneumonia on February 7.
“While many in the Chinese mainland were mourning Li’s death, Hong
Kong and anti-China groups were enlisting people to help sensationalize
the story on Chinese social media in efforts to spread negative publicity
on the mainland and incite the so-called democratic movement.
“An online post - likely initiated by overseas anti-China forces - incited
Wuhan residents to congregate and whistle in solidarity with Li on Friday.
Experts said it is malicious to use Li’s death to incite ‘social movements’
in China, adding that such attempts are doomed to fail.”
Have mistakes been made, yes. On the other hand, police training programs don’t routinely
teach entry level police officers much about virology or potential effects of pandemics. China,
like all other nations suffers from online rumors and gossip that are often quite malicious.
Virtually all nations take measures to counter that “fake news,” and some entry-level police
officer making a mistake like that should not cast negative light on the Central government’s
maximum “spare no expense” effort to contain the spread of COVID-19. WHO has congratulated
the Chinese central government39 on its fast and comprehensive response to the outbreak of
Hong Kong radicals however, using it to further their “democratic” rebellion however, is
predictable. For example, the epidemic picked up considerable momentum in late January, and
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

virtually everyone in Beijing is wearing a filter facemask. Were COVID-19 to spread around the
US, what is the probability everyone would wear a face mask? An absolute belief in American
Manifest Destiny and American Exceptionalism, plus widely held beliefs in some abstract notion
of ‘freedom,’ would encourage large segments of the American population to disregard ordinary
precautions regarding the spread of this or any infectious disease. Though many in the USA have
a sense of social responsibility, unfortunately many do not.
Measuring some important freedoms
In the preceding section this writer asserts that Americans would probably not respond as
uniformly as Chinese in regards to necessary precautions to prevent the spread of a contagious
disease. There is evidence to support that proposition.
USA: Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in 2018: 1.1+ million
USA population in 2018: 327.2 million (.296%) (83)
China: Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in 2018: 820,000
China population in 2018: 1.395 billion (.059%) (17)
• The probability of an American in the USA having HIV/AIDS is 4.9 times higher than a
Chinese in China.
Death is the loss of the freedom to live.
Of course, the global concept of freedom incorporates many factors, however statistics
measuring the percentages of Americans in prison compared to Chinese in prison will reveal
approximately the same percentages. Being in prison is also a distinct limitation on freedom.
Likewise, given that illegal drug addiction makes a person into the slave of the drug and the
person(s) that sell that drug, a much higher percentage of Chinese are “free” compared to
Thus, criticisms of Chinese state control often fail to account for the number of ways Chinese are
freer than Americans, e.g. the freedom to live, the freedom to not be in prison, and the freedom
to not be a slave to a drug or drug dealer.
Disinformation40 is a weapon of war, and the US DoD has chosen China to be the principal
40 The disinformation machine, April 14th, 2019
Strategic Deception in the Age of ‘TRUTHINESS,’ December 2018 In book: Deception and Deceptive
Communication, Sergei A Samoilenko
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

In building a probability model regarding the genesis of 2019-novo-coronavirus statisticians
must include as a factor the power of American disinformation giving DoD a free hand to
relentlessly commit war crimes and crimes against humanity with impunity. That known power
increases the probability that DoD could have launched a malicious bioweapon attack on China.
This could be called an “impunity” factor.
Brian Williams – Just A Cog in The National Disinformation Machine
by Dr. Wilmer J. Leon, III
“In the councils of government, we must guard against the
acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or
unsought, by the military industrial complex. The
potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists
and will persist.” – President D. Eisenhower 1961
“It’s not difficult to be skeptical about GE’s ability to operate as a fair and
unbiased journalistic organization.”
“Recently Brian Williams, anchor of the NBC Nightly News, was removed
from the anchor desk and suspended for six months. According to a
statement released by NBC, Williams was suspended for
‘misrepresenting events which occurred while he was covering the Iraq
War in 2003. It then became clear that on other occasions Brian had done
the same while telling that story in other venues.’ In a nutshell, Brian
Williams lied.
“It’s important to note that not only was he the anchor of NBC Nightly
News; he was also its Managing Editor. As such he was one of, if not the,
most powerful person in the newsroom. He assigned stories, decided
which stories NBC Nightly News would cover and how to cover them. As
the Managing Editor, Williams also set and enforced policies and
procedures used by those in the newsroom. In short, if you can’t trust the
integrity of the Managing Editor, you can’t trust the story. If you can’t
trust the story, you can’t trust the news broadcast. Trust is the lifeblood
of a journalist and the news organizations they work for.
“But this story provides us with an opportunity to take a closer look at
the news organizations that we rely on for information. Brian Williams’
transgression was one of personal exaggeration. It was a relatively small
cog in a much larger national media machine that has historically engaged
How Disinformation Hacks Your Brain, The digital age has heightened our vulnerability to falsehood, but
recognizing such weaknesses can help guard against them, by Brett Beasley on December 26, 2019
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

in disinformation. If assessed accurately, our focus on disinformation in
the news media cannot begin or end with Brian Williams.
“It is important to remember that Brian Williams works for NBC. Up until
2013 General Electric (GE) owned NBC. According to a report by Business
Insider, using 2012 data, GE was the 12th largest defense contractor in
America. GE’s Intelligent Platforms – Military and Aerospace division
generated $4.3B in military arms sales for that year.
“‘If you can’t trust the integrity of the Managing can’t trust
the news broadcast.’
“With such large revenues and profits at stake, it’s not difficult to be
skeptical about GE’s ability to operate as a fair and unbiased journalistic
organization. As Eisenhower said, “This conjunction of an immense
military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American
experience. The total influence – economic, political, even spiritual – is
felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal
“Too often mainstream American media’s coverage of the Middle East
conveniently fits into the imperialist narrative the American government
needs it to perpetuate. A clear example of this is how in 2003 Vice
President Cheney and National Security Advisor Rice were allowed to go
on NBC’s Meet the Press and talk with such certainty about Saddam
Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, links between Iraq and al Qaeda
and threats of “mushroom clouds” without the host, Tim Russert
challenging the validity of their statements.
“This takes me to my final point about the national disinformation
machine. Any analysis of Brian Williams’ lies or ‘fog of memory” regarding
his experience covering Iraq must be examined in the context of a much
greater issue. NBC and other mainstream media outlets allowed the lies,
misinformation, and disinformation disseminated by President George W.
Bush and the key figures of the Bush administration.
“According to former Congressman Henry Waxman’s report, Iraq on the
Record, there were “…237 misleading statements about the threat posed
by Iraq that were made by President Bush, Vice President Cheney,
Secretary Rumsfeld, Secretary Powell, and National Security Advisor Rice.
These statements were made in 125 separate appearances, consisting of
40 speeches, 26 press conferences and briefings, 53 interviews, 4 written
statements, and 2 congressional testimonies.” According to the report
the statements were, ‘…misleading because they expressed certainty
where none existed or failed to acknowledge the doubts of intelligence
officials. Ten of the statements were simply false.’
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“‘NBC and other mainstream media outlets allowed the lies,
misinformation, and disinformation disseminated by President George W.
Bush and the key figures of the Bush administration.’
“America was led into the invasion of Iraq based upon misinformation,
disinformation, and lies that were contrived and disseminated by officials
at the highest levels of the American government. According to Seymor
Hersh and others, Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith created the Office of
Special Plans in the Pentagon to find evidence that Saddam Hussein had
close ties to al Qaeda and chemical and nuclear weapons. When no
evidence could be found they manufactured it.”
It is worth recalling that China is not the only target of the American disinformation machine.
Russia and Muslim countries have also suffered immeasurable loss due to the effectiveness of
mainstream medias ability to dupe people. Tulsi Gabbard, the one candidate for the November
2020 election that is solidly anti-war is being labeled as a Russian tool.
“‘Why are you voting for Putin?’ Tulsi Gabbard supporters harassed at
Iowa caucuses”
It is tragic we live in a time when advocating for peace automatically makes one an “enemy” of
the American state. This is particularly unfortunate given that neither China or Russia is an enemy
of the USA. All nations and individuals seek self-determination and should not be castigated or
attacked for that natural desire and right according to international law.
On the Chinese side, positive thinking and the immune system, conscientiousness and
Quite a number of scientific research studies have confirmed that positive thinking enhances
immune response.
An article published by John Hopkins titled: “The Power of Positive Thinking” reported
“Here's heartwarming news: People with a family history of heart disease
who also had a positive outlook were one-third less likely to have a heart
attack or other cardiovascular event within five to 25 years than those
with a more negative outlook...”
Likewise, reports: “Optimism Boosts Immune System” (Stephanie Pappas March
25, 2010)
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Optimism doesn't just boost your mood. According to new research, a
glass-half-full attitude also strengthens the immune system.
“The study, which tracked changes in optimism and immune response
among first-year law students, found that as students became more
optimistic, they showed stronger cell-mediated immunity, the flood of
immune cells that respond to an invasion by foreign viruses or bacteria.
When optimism dropped, so did cell-mediated immunity.
“Previous studies have established the connection between the
psychological and the physical. Everything from marital spats to job stress
can delay healing and promote disease. But previous research on
optimism and the immune system has mostly compared optimists with
pessimists, leaving open the possibility that other factors, like genetics
and personality, could affect immune function...”
And thus, the Chinese government is certainly justified in its attempts to bolster the confidence
and optimism of the Chinese people in their ability to defend against COVID-19. For example:
Confidence is the most lasting vaccine
By Zhang Jianmin Source: Global Times Published: February 7, 2020
“The novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak has caused tremendous
concern. This is understandable, and necessary preventive and control
measures ought to be taken. At the same time, there is no need to panic
or resort to excessive measures. Instead, confidence can serve as the
most lasting vaccine against fear.
“Confidence is based on solid efforts. The campaign against the virus
launched by the Chinese government is unprecedented in both scope and
intensity. The entire nation has been mobilized. President Xi Jinping has
convened top-level meetings to plan unified nationwide efforts. Premier
Li Keqiang has visited the epicenter. A 1,000-bed special hospital, built in
10 days, is already admitting patients and another one with 1,500 beds
will be ready in a couple of days. Other cities are sending medical
professionals and supplies to support Wuhan. Scientists are racing
against time to identify and contain the virus. China has lost no time in
sharing data including the genetic sequence with the World Health
Organization (WHO) and other countries and regions. Travel within the
country has been reduced to the minimum to stop the spread even
though it is still the holiday season. People are staying at home while
praying for those fighting the battle at the front line.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Confidence is based on professional judgment. As the most authoritative
international organization in combating epidemics, the WHO and its
director-general have spoken highly of the Chinese response. Many
measures taken by China are well beyond the requirements of
international health regulations. Thanks to the thorough and strict
approach China has adopted not just for the sake of its own citizens but
also the international community, according to Director-General Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus, ‘the spread to other countries is minimal and
slow. The number of cases (outside China) ... is actually small and it’s
coming only slowly. So, it can be managed.’ This is what gives the WHO
confidence in advising against restrictions on international travel and
Use and abuse of the word “conspiracy”
Is it possible COVID-19 is part of a “conspiracy” against China? The answer may never be known
with certainty. However, the coordinated media attacks against China are for the most part
probably part of a conspiracy, in that a number of people work together largely in secret to
commit a crime.
As a factor in a probability equation, statisticians must take into account that American media
plays an extremely powerful role protecting American DoD from censure for violations of
international law such as crimes against humanity and war crimes. Those who claim abuse of
power by the American media (including and especially the use of disinformation) are reflexively
labeled “conspiracy theorists.”
“The de facto censorship which leaves so many Americans functionally
illiterate about the history of US foreign affairs may be all the more
effective because it is not so much official, heavy-handed or
conspiratorial, as it is woven artlessly into the fabric of education and
media. No conspiracy is needed. The editors of Reader’s digest and U.S.
News and World Report do not need to meet covertly with the
representatives from NBC in an FBI safe-house to plan next month’s
stories and programs; for the simple truth is that these individuals would
not have reached the positions they occupy if they themselves had not
all been guided through the same tunnel of camouflaged history and
emerged with the same selective memory and conventional wisdom.”
William Blum, Killing Hope, U.S. Military and CIA Interventions since
World War II, p. 15
[Permission to quote granted by William Blum via email March 15, 2018]
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Section 10 Enumeration and evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic potential aggressor
nation probability factors
Given the respective areas of Wuhan compared to China, and the presence of China’s largest
BSL 4 virology research center in Wuhan, the probability of the COVID-19 occurring
coincidentally/naturally in Wuhan is somewhere between 1 in 500,000 and 1 in a million.
Given that improbable event, three other possibilities regarding the outbreak of the COVID-19
appearing in Wuhan include:
• Accidental containment breech
• Intentional containment breech
• Biowarfare attack launched from Wuhan with the intent to make the COVID-19
epidemic appear to be a containment breech
An intentional containment breach could have been done by for example a disgruntled or
mentally ill employee, or potentially an agent of some aggressor nation or nations.
The phrase “potential aggressor nation(s)” would most probably refer to those nations that have
a vested interest in seeing China’s economy badly damaged or fail. That could possibly include
the USA, and/or one or more close allies of the USA acting individually or conjointly.
Were the COVID-19 epidemic due to either an intentional containment breech or a biological
warfare attack on China, it probably would have been launched sometime in
November/December 2019.
Below are the four potential primary causative factors in the COVID-19 Wuhan epidemic with
hypothetical approximate probabilities given available evidence as of the time of this writing
(February 11, 2020) with rational to be presented later in this paper.
• Random natural occurrence p≤ .0000001
• Accidental containment leak p≤ .0141
• Intentional containment leak p=.49
• Intentional release of BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory manufactured bioweapon p=.5
41 An accidental containment leak seems very unlikely for several reasons. First, it implies COVID-19 was in
the Wuhan lab. Why would they have an ethnic-specific virus that targets Asians(?) suppresses the
immune system and attacks lungs, heart and kidneys in their lab? Second, according to the central
tendency theorem in statistics, the average worker in China is likely to be about as careful as the average
worker anywhere, however, with its population of 1.4 billion the most careful of Chinese workers would
have been selected for the Wuhan Virology Institute lab are probably going to be among the most careful
workers in the world, lowering the probability of an accidental containment leak below one in one
hundred. Third, that both WHO and Galveston Virology lab designed and coordinate the Wuhan Institute
of Virology, it probably uses the highest-level state-of-the-art employee training, technology, procedural
systems and 24/7 monitoring.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Both intentional containment leak and intentional release of a laboratory manufactured COVID19 bioweapon are criminal acts under the auspices of international law.42
If COVID-19 is a genetically modified bioweapon designed for mass destruction in China, any
attempt to predict the aggressor nation suspect(s) must first examine those nations that have 1)
the capability to produce such a bioweapon and 2) motivation to engage in such a crime.
Capability here means does advanced research on biological pathogenic weapons including
virology using CRISPR and/or other sophisticated gene-editing technologies.
Motivation here means could engage in a bioweapons attack based on perceived nationalist
driven strategic political and/or economic goals.
Would an agreement have to have been made between for example an American politician or
intelligence official in order for a foreign power to unilaterally or conjointly participate in a
bioweapons attack?
In regards to the president of the United States the answer is “maybe.”
At the time of the founding of the United States efforts to put distinct limits on the power of the
president were made, e.g. the tripartite structure of the government, states’ rights, freedom of
the press and so on. However, over the past nearly two and a half centuries many of those
safeguards have eroded. In many ways today’s presidents are like kings and in some cases
tyrants and dictators primarily due to corporate control of the media which can have undue
influence on voting patterns for the Congress and Senate, some judges and legislators.
Thus, some US ally nations’ leaders may be persuaded to feed into any particular president’s
agenda rather easily and given the lack of scrutiny by the mostly corporate owned mainstream
media, not only in the US but other nations as well, get away with murder on a very large scale.
Many or most believe the “targeted assassination” of Iranian Qassem Soleimani and his nine
associates in Iraq which was approved by President Trump was murder. Michael Pompeo’s role
in steering President Trump is well known.
Likewise, President Trump has set the stage for a war with Iran, and though a majority in the
Senate and Congress and the world do not agree with his rational for that war, there are no
legislative or judicial powers in the US that can stop him though an attempt was made.
42 1972 “Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological
(Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction,” known as the BWC, was developed. This treaty
prohibits the development, production, and stockpiling of pathogens or toxins in “quantities that have no
justification for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Senate invokes War Powers Act in vote to restrain Trump’s military
actions in Iran, By Sarah D. Wire, LA Times, February 13, 2020
“President Trump’s ability to use military force against Iran would be
restricted unless he first received congressional approval, according to a
bipartisan resolution approved by the Senate on Thursday.
“But Trump is certain to veto the resolution, and it is unlikely that either
the House or Senate would have the two-thirds majority needed to
override him, making Thursday's vote more of a symbolic rebuke.”
How many innocent people will die in a war in Iran? Tragically the best the US government can
do is give him a symbolic “rebuke.”
The lesson of Thomas Becket
Thomas Becket was the son of a merchant who rose to power during the reign of Henry II to
become the Archbishop of Canterbury. King Henry II wanted Becket to bring the church further
under his control, but Becket had other ideas. King Henry was then quoted as saying (or
shouting as the legend goes):
“Will no one rid me of this troublesome priest?”
Hearing of this, four knights on December 29, 1170 murdered Becket in front of the altar of
Canterbury Cathedral.
President Trump is a very powerful person. And, no doubt like British King Henry II all he would
have to ask is: “Will no one rid me of this troublesome China?”
On June 8, 2017, reported FBI Director James Comey, while testifying before the U.S.
Senate intelligence committee compared the President’s “hope” that he’d “drop” the probe into
NSA advisor Michael Flynn’s Russian ties, to King Henry II’s famous line implicitly ordering the
death of Thomas Beckett. (For a video of that testimony, see:
FBI Director James Comey subsequently answered that he would take such a suggestion “as a
directive.” Thus, this quote, and the plausibly deniable power it confers would probably have
been known to President Trump.
Likewise, any of the USA’s ally countries’ national leaders could do some “horse-trading” with
President Trump, a quid pro quo explicit or implicit deal that might appear mutually beneficial to
both parties.
The following sections record American, and few American ally nations’ 1) bioweapon history
and capability, 2a) history of military aggression against China specifically if any, 2b) pursuance
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

of other international military aggression and 3) potential specific motivation to destabilize
China economically or politically
In regards to a study of motivation for a crime, the first question usually is: “Who profits from
this crime?”
A hypothetical shortlist of nations that have the capability and potentially the motivation to
launch a biological weapon attack on China includes: USA, India, UK, France, Israel, and Saudi
Arabia as they have provable motivation to maintain the USA as the sole global superpower and
China’s growing economy has the potential to grow larger than the American economy.43 44
1) USA – Biological weapons brief review
Post WWII American biological weapons research, development and alleged use to attain military
political goals.
Biological warfare and bioterrorism: a historical review by Stefan Riedel,
“…During the Korean War, the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea
accused the USA of using agents of biological warfare against North Korea
(1, 18). In later years the USA admitted that it had the capability of
producing such weapons, although it denied having used them. However,
the credibility of the USA was undermined by its failure to ratify the
Geneva Protocol of 1925, by public acknowledgment of its own offensive
biological warfare program, and by suspicions of collaboration with
former Unit 731 scientists (1, 18).
“In the USA, an offensive biological warfare program was begun in 1942
under the direction of a civilian agency, the War Reserve Service (1). The
program included a research and development facility at Camp Detrick,
Maryland (renamed Fort Detrick in 1956 and known today as the US Army
Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases [USAMRIID]), testing
sites in Mississippi and Utah, and a production facility in Terra Haute,
“In addition to these efforts in the USA, many other countries continued
their biological weapons research, including Canada, Britain, France, and
the Soviet Union….
43 For obvious reasons, e.g. China has three times the population of the USA and is modernizing.
44 South Korea could be added to this list; however, I didn’t put it on there for one main reason. During my
seven years working in South Korea (before moving to China) I worked for four years at the high security
ROK Gyeryongdae (계룡대) tri-service headquarters complex where all military operations are planned
and controlled and had many conversations with high ranking officers. When asked, one thing they all
mentioned was: They were much more concerned about an attack from Japan than China. I almost did
add it to the above list because a bioweapons attack could come from labs coordinated not by the military
but by the KCIA, which is civilian based (like the American CIA) and more politically oriented. It was a
50/50 call and I left it off the above list for expediency.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“Other allegations occurred during the post—World War II period (11):
“The Eastern European press stated that Great Britain had used biological
weapons in Oman in 1957.
“The Chinese alleged that the USA caused a cholera epidemic in Hong
Kong in 1961.
“In July 1964, the Soviet newspaper Pravda asserted that the US Military
Commission in Columbia and Colombian troops had used biological
agents against peasants in Colombia and Bolivia.
“In 1969, Egypt accused the “imperialistic aggressors" of using biological
weapons in the Middle East, specifically causing an epidemic of cholera
in Iraq in 1966...
Subsequently, the 1972 “Convention on the Prohibition of the
Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological)
and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction,” known as the BWC, was
developed. This treaty prohibits the development, production, and
stockpiling of pathogens or toxins in “quantities that have no justification
for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes (22)....”
2a) American brief record of military conflicts with China
The USA has engaged in many military conflicts with China: 1895-1895; 1898-1900; 1911-1941;
1922-1927; 1927-1934; 1945-1949; 1951-1953; 1958. The USA was one of the chief opium
traders leading up to the Opium wars and following years. Within a week after the end of WWII
the USA turned its’ planes around and started attacking its’ former allies, Communist troops in
China who had previously helped to defeat the Japanese during the war. China, like Russia has
experienced quite astonishing sudden changes in foreign policy orientation from the USA on
several outstanding occasions in history.
2b) American brief record of other military conflicts
During its history the United States has engaged in a rather large number of domestic and
foreign military conflicts. The following is a short and incomplete list:
(1) American Indian nations (1776) onwards, American Indian
Genocide; 1803, Louisiana Purchase; 1844, Indians banned from east
of the Mississippi; 1861 onwards, California genocide; 1890, Lakota
Indians massacre), (2) Mexico (1836-1846; 1913; 1914-1918; 1923),
(3) Nicaragua (1856-1857; 1894; 1896; 1898; 1899; 1907; 1910; 1912-
1933; 1981-1990), (4) American forces deployed against Americans
(1861-1865, Civil War; 1892; 1894; 1898; 1899-1901; 1901; 1914;
1915; 1920-1921; 1932; 1943; 1967; 1968; 1970; 1973; 1992; 2001),
(5), Argentina (1890), (6), Chile (1891; 1973), (7) Haiti (1891; 1914-


“Other allegations occurred during the post—World War II period (11):
“The Eastern European press stated that Great Britain had used biological
weapons in Oman in 1957.
“The Chinese alleged that the USA caused a cholera epidemic in Hong
Kong in 1961.
“In July 1964, the Soviet newspaper Pravda asserted that the US Military
Commission in Columbia and Colombian troops had used biological
agents against peasants in Colombia and Bolivia.
“In 1969, Egypt accused the “imperialistic aggressors" of using biological
weapons in the Middle East, specifically causing an epidemic of cholera
in Iraq in 1966...
Subsequently, the 1972 “Convention on the Prohibition of the
Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological)
and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction,” known as the BWC, was
developed. This treaty prohibits the development, production, and
stockpiling of pathogens or toxins in “quantities that have no justification
for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes (22)....”
2a) American brief record of military conflicts with China
The USA has engaged in many military conflicts with China: 1895-1895; 1898-1900; 1911-1941;
1922-1927; 1927-1934; 1945-1949; 1951-1953; 1958. The USA was one of the chief opium
traders leading up to the Opium wars and following years. Within a week after the end of WWII
the USA turned its’ planes around and started attacking its’ former allies, Communist troops in
China who had previously helped to defeat the Japanese during the war. China, like Russia has
experienced quite astonishing sudden changes in foreign policy orientation from the USA on
several outstanding occasions in history.
2b) American brief record of other military conflicts
During its history the United States has engaged in a rather large number of domestic and
foreign military conflicts. The following is a short and incomplete list:
(1) American Indian nations (1776) onwards, American Indian
Genocide; 1803, Louisiana Purchase; 1844, Indians banned from east
of the Mississippi; 1861 onwards, California genocide; 1890, Lakota
Indians massacre), (2) Mexico (1836-1846; 1913; 1914-1918; 1923),
(3) Nicaragua (1856-1857; 1894; 1896; 1898; 1899; 1907; 1910; 1912-
1933; 1981-1990), (4) American forces deployed against Americans
(1861-1865, Civil War; 1892; 1894; 1898; 1899-1901; 1901; 1914;
1915; 1920-1921; 1932; 1943; 1967; 1968; 1970; 1973; 1992; 2001),
(5), Argentina (1890), (6), Chile (1891; 1973), (7) Haiti (1891; 1914-
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

1934; 1994; 2004-2005), (8) Hawaii (1893-), (9) China (1895-1895;
1898-1900; 1911-1941; 1922-1927; 1927-1934; 1948-1949; 1951-
1953; 1958), (10) Korea (1894-1896; 1904-1905; 1951-1953), (11)
Panama (1895; 1901-1914; 1908; 1912; 1918-1920; 1925; 1958; 1964;
1989-), (12) Philippines (1898-1910; 1948-1954; 1989; 2002-), (13)
Cuba (1898-1902; 1906-1909; 1912; 1917-1933; 1961; 1962), (14)
Puerto Rico (1898-; 1950; ); (15) Guam (1898-), (16) Samoa (1899-),
(17) Honduras (1903; 1907; 1911; 1912; 1919; 1924-1925; 1983-
1989), (18) Dominican Republic (1903-1904; 1914; 1916-1924; 1965-
1966), (19) Germany (1917-1918; 1941-1945; 1948; 1961), (20)
Russia (1918-1922), (21) Yugoslavia (1919; 1946; 1992-1994; 1999),
(22) Guatemala (1920; 1954; 1966-1967), (23) Turkey (1922), (24) El
Salvador (1932; 1981-1992), (25) Italy (1941-1945); (26) Morocco
(1941-1945), (27) France (1941-1945), (28) Algeria (1941-1945), (29)
Tunisia (1941-1945), (30) Libya (1941-1945; 1981; 1986; 1989; 2011),
(31) Egypt (1941-1945; 1956; 1967; 1973; 2013), (32) India (1941-
1945), (33) Burma (1941-1945), (34) Micronesia (1941-1945), (35)
Papua New Guinea (1941-1945), (36) Vanuatu (1941-1945), (37)
Austria (1941-1945), (38) Hungary (1941-1945), (39) Japan (1941-
1945), (40) Iran (1946; 1953; 1980; 1984; 1987-1988; ), (41) Uruguay
(1947), (42) Greece (1947-1949), (43) Vietnam (1954; 1960-1975),
(44) Lebanon (1958; 1982-1984), (45) Iraq (1958; 1963; 1990-1991;
1990-2003; 1998; 2003-2011), (46) Laos (1962-), (47) Indonesia
(1965), (48) Cambodia (1969-1975; 1975), (49) Oman (1970), (50)
Laos (1971-1973), (51) Angola (1976-1992), (52) Grenada (1983-
1984), (53) Bolivia (1986; ), (54) Virgin Islands (1989), (55) Liberia
(1990; 1997; 2003), (56) Saudi Arabia (1990-1991), (57) Kuwait (1991),
(58) Somalia (1992-1994; 2006), (59) Bosnia (1993-), (60) Zaire
(Congo) (1996-1997), (61) Albania (1997), (62) Sudan (1998), (63)
Afghanistan (1998; 2001-), (64) Yemen (2000; 2002-), (65) Macedonia
(2001), (66) Colombia (2002-), (67) Pakistan (2005-), (68) Syria (2008;
2011-), (69) Uganda (2011), (70) Mali (2013), (71) Niger (2013).
Following is a list of American attempts to overthrow foreign governments since 1945. Some of
the following were military conflicts, others were “intelligence-driven” well-organized and
funded revolutions and coups, election manipulation, and so on.
Overthrowing other people’s governments: The Master List, by William Blum
Instances of the United States overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow a foreign
government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a
China 1949 to early 1960s
Albania 1949-53
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

East Germany 1950s
Iran 1953 *
Guatemala 1954 *
Costa Rica mid-1950s
Syria 1956-7
Egypt 1957
Indonesia 1957-8
British Guiana 1953-64 *
Iraq 1963 *
North Vietnam 1945-73
Cambodia 1955-70 *
Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 *
Ecuador 1960-63 *
Congo 1960 *
France 1965
Brazil 1962-64 *
Dominican Republic 1963 *
Cuba 1959 to present
Bolivia 1964 *
Indonesia 1965 *
Ghana 1966 *
Chile 1964-73 *
Greece 1967 *
Costa Rica 1970-71
Bolivia 1971 *
Australia 1973-75 *
Angola 1975, 1980s
Zaire 1975
Portugal 1974-76 *
Jamaica 1976-80 *
Seychelles 1979-81
Chad 1981-82 *
Grenada 1983 *
South Yemen 1982-84
Suriname 1982-84
Fiji 1987 *
Libya 1980s
Nicaragua 1981-90 *
Panama 1989 *
Bulgaria 1990 *
Albania 1991 *
Iraq 1991
Afghanistan 1980s *
Somalia 1993
Yugoslavia 1999-2000 *
Ecuador 2000 *
Afghanistan 2001 *
Venezuela 2002 *
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Iraq 2003 *
Haiti 2004 *
Somalia 2007 to present
Honduras 2009 *
Libya 2011 *
Syria 2012
Ukraine 2014 *
To that list one can add:
Turkey 2016
Venezuela 2019
Bolivia 2019 *
Iran 2019
There have been many allegations of American use of biological weapons. Two of them include:
3) American foreign policy’s specific motivation to destabilize China economically and
The Defense Department of the USA is mandated by the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) to
maintain American hegemony in perpetuity. Because China has three times the population size
of the USA and is modernizing at a rapid rate, it was and remains predictable that its’ GNP/GDP
will exceed the USA in the near future. This however is not to be permitted according to the
mandates in the DPG. The USA cannot politically afford an open military conflict with China,
hence motivation for a bioweapon attack appears heightened.
The long lists above of aggression against foreign nations by the USA establishes a known habit
by the United States as defined by law,45 of flaunting international laws including war crimes
(starting a war is a war crime), crimes against humanity, prohibitions on the interference in the
affairs of other nations and so on. There is no doubt that the United States is, over its short
history, history’s single greatest killer of human beings, by far. Though the USA always
rationalizes its foreign aggression, the remoteness of its location geographically and its sheer
volume of aggression cast serious doubts on any claims of self-defense as legitimate rational.
Unfortunately, the UN Security Council by its consistent failure to uphold international law since
at least 1947, has acted to reinforce American impunity to international law.
45 “Habit” as defined by law is “a disposition or condition of the body or mind acquired by custom or a
usual repetition of the same act or function. Case law includes: Knickerbocker L. Ins. Co. v. Foley, 105 U. S.
354,26 L. Ed. 1055; Conner v. Citizens’ St. R. Co., 146 Ind. 430, 45 N. E. 662; State v. Skillicorn,104 Iowa, 97,
73 N. W. 503; State v. Robinson, 111 Ala. 4S2, 20 South. 30.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Also giving foreign policy makers freedom to possibly launch a bioweapon attack on China are
weaknesses in the Biological Weapons Convention.
“However, like the 1925 Geneva Protocol, the BWC does not provide firm
guidelines for inspections and control of disarmament and adherence to
the protocol. In addition, there are no guidelines on enforcement and
how to deal with violations. Furthermore, there are unresolved
controversies about the definition of “defensive research” and the
quantities of pathogens necessary for benevolent research (24, 25).
Alleged violations of the BWC were to be reported to the UN Security
Council, which may in turn initiate inspections of accused parties, as well
as modalities of correction. The right of permanent members of the
Security Council to veto proposed inspections, however, undermines this
“As long as there are no concrete provisions for enforcement, the BWC
will remain a toothless instrument in the hands of the UN Security
American partnerships with Wuhan Institute of Virology
Besides Wuhan Institute of Virology Partnership with Galveston National laboratory, other
American partners include the University of Alabama, University of North Texas, EcoHealth
Alliance, Harvard University, The National Institutes of Health, the United States, and National
Wildlife Federation
Two years ago (2017), a book titled Spy Schools: How the CIA, FBI and Foreign Intelligence
Secretly Exploit America’s Universities (Henry Holt and Company) was published. One reviewer
summarized parts as follows:
Perhaps the most prestigious institution Golden examines is Harvard
University, probing its cozy relationship with the CIA.
Also see:
Meanwhile, the Chinese government freely gives Permanent Resident Cards to Harvard
University and other Ivy League graduates. It is part of a point system incorporated into the PR
card system.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Harvard is the university for the CIA and future DARPA researchers. Harvard offers many classes
attended by CIA officers in training and in regards to DARPA even has on-line classes teaching
people how to do CRISPR gene-editing.
CRISPR: Gene-editing Applications
Explore the ways in which CRISPR is disrupting sectors across the
What you'll learn: Explain the way in which CRISPR can be used as a tool
to edit genes
Analyze how CRISPR can be used to optimize microbes for the food,
health, and energy industries
The University of Alabama at Birmingham has DARPA contracts for viral research including
If one takes a look at the Genomes OnLine Database…
…one finds they list 9,251 research projects on viruses; 9,219 of those are sequencing projects.
The Chinese government appears to believe they can “harmonize” with the CIA. They believe
mutual interest will make them safe. “Our economies are linked,” they say. Others report
hindsight is 20/20. As Michael Pompeo and Defence Policy Chief John C. Rood said, China is the
“primary target,” which is a politically correct way of saying: “main enemy.”
Since WWII the USA has been the sole superpower and due to China’s rising economy and
respect worldwide, it has the potential to create a new multi-polar system in regards to world
4) American Administration’s response to 2019-n-Cov – Blame the victim and promote fear of
US exploiting of coronavirus crisis unworthy of a great power
Source:Global Times Published: 2020/2/11
“The US administration has been reluctant to offer any pragmatic aid to
China, and instead has taken several negative measures. Just as Hua said
on February 3, the US was the first to evacuate personnel from its
consulate in Wuhan, the first to suggest partial withdrawal of its embassy
staff, and the first to impose a travel ban on foreigners arriving from
China. ‘What it has done could only create and spread fear, which is a
very bad example,’ said Hua.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“On the one hand, US officials regard the outbreak of the novel
coronavirus from the perspective of geopolitics, harboring the mind-set
of schadenfreude, in which they take pleasure in other people's
misfortune. Washington may think the epidemic would slow the pace of
China's development, realizing US' goals as it engages in a strategic
competition with China.
“On the other hand, the US has long had a deep-seated prejudice against
China's system of governance. It has used the epidemic as an opportunity
to unfairly blame the Chinese system of failing to effectively prevent and
control the NCP during the initial outbreak.
“Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the anti-China rhetoric spewed by
US politicians and elites have only added insult to injury. For example,
Reuters reported Pompeo on Saturday urged governors of US states and
territories to adopt a "cautious mind-set" toward doing business with
China, claiming it was attempting to take advantage of US openness to
undermine the superpower. US Republican Senator Tom Cotton smeared
the Communist Party of China by suggesting the virus could be a manmade bioweapon that leaked from the world-class Wuhan Institute of
“To some extent, US’ moves and words on the outbreak show
Washington is using it as an opportunity in its competition with Beijing,
which is inconsistent with the image of a responsible great power.”
Chinese officials are not blaming the US or any other nation for the appearance of COVID-19 and
is instead saying its appearance is of natural origin.
1) India - bioweapon production, history, use and capability
India has one of the world’s most ancient and complete traditions in herbal lore and poisons.
“Ayurveda is considered by many scholars to be the oldest healing science. In Sanskrit, Ayurveda
means “The Science of Life.” Ayurvedic knowledge originated in India more than 5,000 years ago
and is often called the “Mother of All Healing.”
The Roots of Ayurveda - Selections from Sanskrit Medical Writings Selection, translations &
introduction DOMINIK WUJASTY, by Dominik Wujastyk
Makes 195 references to poisons including antidotes and other medical treatment for some of
The ancient Indian text the Arthashastra (2nd c. BCE - 3rd century CE) ostensibly about the art
of statecraft makes 25 references to the use of poisons, mostly in food and drinks, but includes
the use of aphronias, poisonous smoke and poisonous snakes.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Kautilya’s Arthashastra: Book XII, “Concerning a Powerful Enemy”
In Chapter 1: The duties of a messenger one finds: “Spies, under concealment, may capture the
enemy's fort, country, or camp with the aid of weapons, poison, or fire... In Chapter 2 there are
rather detailed descriptions of the use of “honey traps” using poisons and the use of medicinal
drugs containing poisons.
Chapter 2: Battle of Intrigue
“He should also make use of fiery spies and poison. Against what is
described as deserving protection in the chapter, "Safety of his own
person," fiery spies and poisoners should be employed (in the enemy's
court). Keepers of harlots should excite love in the minds of the leaders
of the enemy’s army by exhibiting women endowed with youth and
“Or to those who have fallen in love, spies, under the guise of ascetics,
may administer poison under the plea that the medical drugs given to
them are capable of securing the object of love.
“A spy, under the guise of a merchant, may, under the plea of winning
the love of an immediate maid-servant of the beautiful queen (of the
enemy), shower wealth upon her and then give her up. A spy in the
service of the merchant may give to another spy, employed as a servant
of the maid-servant, some medical drug, telling the latter that (in order
to regain the love of the merchant), the drug may be applied to the
person of the merchant (by the maid-servant). On her attaining success
(the maid-servant) may inform the queen that the same drug may be
applied to the person of the king (to secure his love), and then change
the drug for poison.”
In Chapter 4: “Spies with weapons and fire, and poison; and destruction of supply, stores and
granaries” on finds advice on the use of the Madana plant.
“…or, for the first day, he may distribute a mild or intoxicating variety of
liquor, and on the following days such liquor as is mixed with poison; or
having given pure liquor to the officers of the enemy’s army, he may
give them poisoned liquor when they are in intoxication.”
In Chapter 5: Capture of the enemy by means of secret contrivances or by means of the army,
and complete victory, one finds: “women under concealment may throw a snake, or poison, or
fire or poisonous smoke over his person when he is asleep in confined place.”
In all, 25 references to poisons.
The above two brief reviews represent only a tiny fragment of India’s vast ancient herbology and
toxicology reservoirs.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

2a) India - History of military (and other) aggression against China
India, a very close ally of the United States in Asia,46 has engaged in several military conflicts
with China since 1945.
• The Sino-Indian War of 1962
• Chola incident in 1967
• Sino-Indian skirmish 1987
There have also been several very near critical threshold conflicts in the recent past with China
• 2017 Doklam standoff (ongoing unresolved territorial dispute)47
In 2017 the internet was buzzing with predictions about a war between India and China.
Who Will Win the Great China-India Naval War of 2020?
“As the two giants stare each other down in the Himalayas, the real
conflict may erupt at sea.”
By James R. Holmes | August 7, 2017, 11:38 AM
“This is how it could go down if China and India went to war, by Blake
Aug. 17, 2017 11:43AM EST
To write there might be some “bad blood” between China and India could an exaggeration.
Mainstream media routinely exaggerates issues. On the other hand, in a conflict, the loser tends
to remember the conflict much better than the winner.
“How China Defeated India in a Terrifying 1962 War” by Robert Farley
February 11, 2020
Key point: The Chinese-Indian War still has implications for how each
country views the other today.
46 Allen Dulles, third Director of the CIA had a very close relationship with "very pretty" Vijaya Lakshmi
Nehru of India from the time she was 14 in Allahabad from 1914. He was a well known compulsive
“womanizer.” In 1953, as Mrs. Pandit, she became the first woman President of the United Nations
General Assembly. That was the same year Allen Dulles became Director of the CIA. Her older brother
Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru was the first prime minister of India serving from 1946 – 1964. Thus, the
relationship between India and the CIA has always been a very close one.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“In 1962, the world’s two most populous countries went to war against
one another in a pair of remote, mountainous border regions. In less than
a month, China dealt India a devastating defeat, driving Indian forces
back on all fronts. Along with breaking hopes of political solidarity in the
developing world, the war helped structure the politics of East and
Southeast Asia for generations. Even today, as Indian and Chinese forces
square off on the Doklam Plateau, the legacy of the 1962 resonates in
both countries.”
One might wonder why “National Interest” would be interested in publishing this article on
February 11, 2020, given some degree of enmity at this time because of what can be interpreted
as inflammatory excesses by Indian researchers in regards to the COVID-19 Wuhan epidemic, as
it would appear to potentially add fuel to the fire, possibly bringing back bad memories on the
part of some Indians thereby potentially provoking them.
China and India despite being divided by the Himalaya Mountains have had many differences
over the centuries and even the relatively recent past. For example, during the 1990s China and
India were engaged - sort of - in a proxy war in Sri Lanka. Whereas the primary semi-domestic
belligerents – the international designated terrorist group the LTTE were directly funded and
aided by India, China only provided minimal weapons support to the democratically elected
Buddhist Sri Lanka government in their effort to stop the separatist terrorist Tamil Hindu
revolution.48 At that time, India and the United States were United in a separatist terrorist attack
upon the Buddhist government.
“China shares a border with more countries than any other state. (4)
Since 1949, it has also had border disputes with every one of its 20
neighbors. (5) Yet China has also resolved its border disputes with many
of them, including Myanmar (1960), Nepal (1961), North Korea (1962),
Mongolia (1962), Pakistan (1963) and Laos (1991). (6) It has even
managed to reach territorial settlements with former enemies, notably
Vietnam (1999) and Russia (1991‐94). (7) In some cases, these disputes
were settled according to international norms through ‘peaceful and
concessionary diplomatic based on mutual understanding’. (8) In others,
such as with Russia and Vietnam, resolution only occurred following
armed conflict. Moreover, in reaching its settlements, China has usually
48 Casualties in that war were at minimum 150,000, with about 100,000 being civilians. This writer was in
Sri Lanka during that time and members of the Colombo Press Club provided me with 20+ newspaper
clippings regarding arrests of Christian NGOs mostly at the airport bringing weapons and money to the
terrorist organization LTTE. The LTTE also contributed heavily to the DNC and Clinton Foundation. / /
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

received less than 50 per cent of the land in dispute. (9) So why then, if
China can compromise on some territorial disputes, has resolution of the
Himalayan dispute with India proven so difficult?”
The answer is simple really, the British drew a line.
“In 1914, at the Anglo‐Tibetan Simla Conference, the British colonial
authorities drew the McMahon Line (named after the chief negotiator
Sir Henry McMahon), which established the boundary between
British India and Tibet. 19 Although Chinese representatives were
present at Simla, they refused to sign or recognise the accords ‘on the
basis that Tibet was under Chinese jurisdiction and therefore did
not have the power to conclude treaties’.”
One British strategy to maintain its hegemony involved drawing national border lines in Asia and
Africa designed to create conflicts between distinctly different indigenous peoples. This worked
well for them, and many of those conflicts have simmered and occasionally boiled for centuries.
They are in effect a form of political poison following the old adage: “divide and conquer,” or
divide et impera in Latin, a saying old in the time of Rome.
Having been a colony of the UK for a very long time (200 years), Indian military strategists have
inculcated some parts of British strategy into their own. (The argument can be made however
that the British learned more from the Indians than vice versa; ditto for the USA.)
In either event, one example of an Indian replication of presumably a British stratagem is their
2020 revival of a “Great Game,” strategy, which consists of a media driven disinformation and
provocation campaign against China in the wake of the COVID-19 Wuhan epidemic.
India’s “Great Game” disinformation campaign against China in the wake of the COVID-19
Wuhan epidemic
It all started – seemingly – innocently with an article published on bioRxiv preprint posted online
Jan. 31, 2020, This site is a way for researchers
to share new information before peer review and publication, something quite useful in the
case of an unexpected medical epidemic of unknown proportions. The title of the article was:
“Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the COVID-19 spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag.”
This article, which appeared to be a professionally written draft presented some “startling
“…found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the
COVID-19 and are not present in other coronaviruses. Importantly,
amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

in the HIV1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag. Interestingly, despite the inserts being
discontinuous on the primary amino acid sequence, 3D-modelling of the
COVID-19 suggests that they converge to constitute the receptor binding
site. The finding of 4 unique inserts in the COVID-19, all of which have
identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of
HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.”
This directly implied that the COVID-19 was the product of gene-splicing and unquestionably a
This Chinese government immediately rebuffed the article calling it a hoax, and it was
withdrawn with promises by the authors that they would do a more exacting study and prove
their case more solidly.
Reading the article, it is easy to get caught up in the excitement of a scientific hunt, and their
results were so dramatic many wanted to believe them.
After all, of all places in China why did COVID-19 appear in Wuhan, the center of China's
virologic research? That by itself is a one in a million proposition.
A more careful reading however illuminates some methodological flaws. Before that however it
helps to understand exactly what they did in their research. They compared all the COVID-19
nucleotide sequences with all other viruses and found it compared most closely with SARS CoV.
That by itself should have been enough to alert research scientists there was something wrong
with this study as that was a direct contradiction of several other research papers, including one
published the day before in Lancet.
Genomic characterization and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus:
implications for virus origins and receptor binding.
Lu R, Zhao X, Li J, Niu P, Yang B, Wu H, Wang W, Song H, Huang , Zhu N,
Bi Y, Ma X, Zhan F, Wang L, Hu T, Zhou H, Hu Z, Zhou W, Zhao L, Chen J,
Meng Y, Wang J, Lin Y, Yuan J, Xie Z, Ma J, Liu WJ, Wang D, Xu W,
Holmes EC, Gao GF, Wu G, Chen W, Shi W, Tan W.
“The ten genome sequences of COVID-19 obtained from the nine patients
were extremely similar, exhibiting more than 99·98% sequence identity.
Notably, COVID-19 was closely related (with 88% identity) to two batderived severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses,
bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, collected in 2018 in Zhoushan,
eastern China, but were more distant from SARS-CoV (about 79%) and
MERS-CoV (about 50%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that COVID-19 fell
within the subgenus Sarbecovirus of the genus Betacoronavirus, with a
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

relatively long branch length to its closest relatives bat-SL-CoVZC45 and
bat-SL-CoVZXC21, and was genetically distinct from SARS-CoV.”
Lancet, 2020 Jan 30. pii: S0140-6736(20)30251-8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-
6736(20)30251-8. [Epub ahead of print]
(These comparisons can easily be done directly on NCBI ; that database also has free use of the BLAST
software for comparisons. It only takes a couple of minutes.)
In any case then the Indian researchers report lining up the sequences one atop the other and
looked for differences between COVID-19 and SARS CoV using specialized software (most of
which can be found on the internet and used for free.) They report finding four very strange
differences, like blank spots, that appeared to have been filled in with sequences from HIV. That
certainly seems like damning and irrefutable evidence that the COVID-19 was genetically
engineered to suppress the immune systems of the victims of that disease, which is what some
clinical studies have suggested.
They cited specifically: “The sequences of spike proteins of COVID-19 (Wuhan-HU-1, Accession
NC_045512) and of SARS CoV (GZ02, Accession AY390556) and aligned them using MultiAlin
software. They can incidentally be downloaded from (Anyone can replicate their methodology,
almost,49 but the results will be probably be different.)
They report they found “the four inserts are present in all Wuhan 2019nCoV viruses except the
COVID-19 virus of Bat as a host [Fig.S4]” which “proves” 2019nCoV did not come from bats, and
instead came from somewhere else, presumably the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Many other studies found high congruencies between COVID-19 and the bat bourn nucleotide
sequences. If the authors had presented a table of other samples they compared, someone
49 I tried to replicate their study downloading both Wuhan-HU-1, Accession NC_045512 & SARS CoV
(GZ02, Accession AY390556) and saving them on “fasta.” Then did a BLAST comparison pulling out the
sequences that didn’t match. Following that I did a simple “find” search for GTNGTKR, the first alleged
“Insert.” There were no matches. My method was simpler than theirs but should have at least found the
GTNGTKR sequence. Then I searched for the other “Insert” sequences, and again, found no matches.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

maybe could have replicated their research, though it is possible either their raw data was
intentionally tainted (perhaps by a third party), or subsequent researchers’ data has been
tampered. (This latter suggestion is impossible really because has
data coming in from all over the world with 2019nCoV nucleotide sequences. Or it is possible
they just faked the data. If the raw data from NCBI were altered it would be discovered quickly
which reduces the probability of that as a factor significantly.) In short, their study looks fake.
In any case, that study, and the retraction of it was only another shot in what had already
became a media circus.
India-based China-bashing yellow journalism
An Indian internet site, went on to present a series of articles that
can only be called China bashing “yellow journalism.”
“Yellow journalism” refers to wildly exaggerated and downright false claims used to
sensationalize fake “news” for financial or political purposes. It was first coined during a battle
for dominance between two newspapers (
1898/yellow-journalism ) and soon after helped “push” the Spanish American war, one of the
USA’s colonial endeavors involving the invasion of Cuba and the Philippines.
In 1941, Frank Mott said that there were five things that made up yellow journalism:
• headlines in huge print that were meant to scare people, often of news that wasn't very
• using many pictures or drawings using fake interviews, headlines that didn't tell the
whole truth, pseudoscience (fake science), and false information from people who said
they were experts
• full-color parts of the newspaper on Sundays, usually with comic strips (which is now
normal in the United States)
• taking the side of the ‘underdog’ against the system.
American Journalism - A history of newspapers in the United States
through 250 years: 1690 to 1940, by Frank Luther Mott,
Routledge/Thoemmes Press, 2000
One story on the Indian site boldly announces:
Coronavirus Bioweapon – How China Stole Coronavirus from Canada And
Weaponized It
By GreatGameIndia -
January 26, 2020 | Last modified on February 6th, 2020 at 1:17 pm,
“Last year a mysterious shipment was caught smuggling Coronavirus
from Canada. It was traced to Chinese agents working at a Canadian lab.
Subsequent investigation by GreatGameIndia linked the agents to
Chinese Biological Warfare Program from where the virus is suspected to
have leaked causing the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak…”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China
Perhaps the writers at GreatGameMedia didn’t check the WHO guidelines.
BTWC Article X IHR (Art 5 and 44) and BTWC Articles: capacity building,
collaboration and assistance►
“5. Each State Party shall develop, strengthen and maintain, as soon as
possible but no later than five years from entry into force of these
Regulations for State Party, the capacity to detect, assess, notify and
report eventsin accordance with these Regulations, as specified in Annex
►44.1 States Parties shall undertake to collaborate with each other, to the
extent possible, in:(a) the detection and assessment of, and response to,
events as provided under these Regulations;(b) the provision or
facilitation of technical cooperation and logistical support, particularly in
the development, strengthening and maintenance of the public health
capacities required under these Regulations....
“►Grants the States Parties to the Convention the right to participate in,
and the undertaking to facilitate, the exchange of equipment, materials
and information for the use of biological agents for peaceful purposes, as
well as scientific cooperation in the field.
BTWC Article X
“WHA Resolution 55.16 (18/05/2002) Urges Member States To treat any
deliberate use as a global public health threat, and to respond to such a
threat in other countries by sharing expertise, supplies and resources as
well as have disease surveillance plans and collaborate to enhance
national capacity.”
In other words, if the esteemed Chinese researchers referred to in the article
had wanted samples of coronavirus all they had to do was ask. There was never any need to steal
or smuggle samples.
That article doesn’t mention that there was about to be a large influx of Middle Easterners (Saudis)
entering China shortly after that (in the wake of a $10 billion dollar business deal) and the Chinese
government had a need to study to the MERS sequences. If the Chinese researchers were refused
the samples (a violation of WHO guidelines) they asked for, they would have had a real problem.
If indeed Chinese distinguished and highly respected researchers50 as the article suggests really
did steal samples of that virus, there must have been some extraordinary reasons, such as they
50 www.researchgate reports Angguo Qiu of National Microbiology Laboratory, Canada, Winnipeg (NML)
has 161 publications to her name.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

suspected Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory was creating their own bioweapons and
wanted to confirm or deny that suspicion.
An Israeli newspaper51 goes into more exacting detail stating that Qiu stole Ebola virus. China has
large projects in Africa with thousands of workers there. Again, if they needed samples of Ebola
virus from Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory all they would have had to do was ask. If
refused, why? If they wanted some specific strains of Ebola virus they could have flown to a clinic
in Central African Republic. (Or a BSL lab in Africa of which there are several including Libya,
Morocco, Sudan, Somalia, Tunisia and others.) China has 1) thousands of workers in Africa, and 2)
has already been doing research on Ebola since at least 2015. (Tong, Y.-G. et al. Nature 524, 93–
96 (2015), and see:
BTWC Article X IHR (Art 5 and 44) and BTWC Articles: “Capacity building, collaboration and
assistance” which clearly mandates: “Grants the States Parties to the Convention the right to
participate in, and the undertaking to facilitate, the exchange of equipment, materials and
information for the use of biological agents for peaceful purposes, as well as scientific cooperation
in the field.”
Is it possible Chinese researchers are locked out of some projects at Canada’s National
Microbiology Laboratory even when there was potentially life threatening need? (Chinese
workers in Africa needing protection from some new strain of Ebola, or an influx of Saudis into
China, given that Saudi Arabia has its own MERS epidemic?)
Furthermore, why are these kinds of reports only appearing in Indian and Israeli news?
If professor Qiu really was stealing potential bioweapons from Canada’s National Microbiology
Laboratory (NML), why wasn’t she arrested and charged? There are no newspapers reporting
that. If it is true they were smuggling virus samples and not arrested is it possible that laboratory
was doing its own illegal bioweapon manufacturing and didn’t want that dragged through the
court and press? The US often outsources its illegal research projects to foreign countries, and it
is entirely possible Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory was working on exactly those
kinds of (illegal) projects. Given American government officials designation of China as the “main
target,” attempting to defend China from what could potentially be bioweapons designed to
attack China or Chinese workers in Africa seems like something any reasonable ethically minded
person would do, not just some diabolical “Chinese agent.”
The American “Defense Guidance Plan,” states no nation or region will be allowed to compete
with the USA. China’s economy is growing as it modernizes and will probably get larger than the
American economy within the next few years because China has three times the population of
the USA. COVID-19 has already killed over a thousand Chinese, and yet India, a very close ally to
the USA is smearing China, via blaming the victim, for any attempt to protect itself.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

When a broader range of information is evaluated, it appears this article is another smear job on
Chinese. If any researcher has a demonstratable need for virus samples they are supposed to
get them. If refused, something strange is going on.
Incidentally, the internet sites also reports
“In a 2015 academic paper, Shoham – of Bar-Ilan’s Begin-Sadat Center
for Strategic Studies – asserts that more than 40 Chinese facilities are
involved in bio-weapon production.”

The Begin–Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA Center) is a conservative Israeli think tank
well known as a right-wing organization that advocates pro-military views, exactly the kind of
place anti-China (ergo pro-American) strategic disinformation would come from.
The claim of 40 Chinese facilities involved in bio-weapon research is not referenced. There is
strong published evidence suggesting that is a false claim.

In 2017 Nature reported:
“A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the
world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build
between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese
mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some
If there really were 40 Chinese facilities producing bio-weapons in China all the Chinese would
probably dead already from containment leaks, because containment leaks do happen, even in
the most careful of countries like Sweden for example.52
This is an inflammatory and false accusation by an Israeli source exaggerated even further by
the Indian “greatgameindia” internet site.
Virologic testing centers are obviously needed in China, and in fact the number they have is
clearly not enough in the wake of 2019nCoV which has already killed over a thousand Chinese
(as of February 12, 2020). The Chinese center in Wuhan incidentally was also built under the
auspices of WHO and American Galveston National laboratory. Other American partners include
the University of Alabama, University of North Texas, EcoHealth Alliance, Harvard University,
The National Institutes of Health, the United States, National Wildlife Federation.
If any BSL-4 lab should have been safe, it would have been that one as it received more foreign
oversight than any other BSL-4 lab in history.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

That article is also loaded with ridiculous inflammatory phrases like “Infiltrating the Canadian
Lab.” Ms. Qiu has practically lived in labs since she was a student. She was a professor at the
Canadian laboratory. She has over 161 publications and doesn’t need to “infiltrate” a lab being
one of the world’s foremost experts on microbiology.
The internet site also wrote:
“The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is housed at the Chinese
military facility Wuhan Institute of Virology linked to China’s Biological
Warfare Program. It was the first ever lab in the country designed to
meet biosafety-level-4 (BSL-4) standards – the highest biohazard level,
meaning that it would be qualified to handle the most dangerous
“In January 2018, the lab was operational ‘for global experiments on
BSL-4 pathogens,’ wrote Guizhen Wu in the journal Biosafety and
Health. ‘After a laboratory leak incident of SARS in 2004, the former
Ministry of Health of China initiated the construction of preservation
laboratories for high-level pathogens such as SARS, coronavirus, and
pandemic influenza virus,’ wrote Guizhen Wu.”
What evidence does the writer have to suggest China has a “warfare program?” There are no
references to support that claim. In fact, China is decades behind the USA, Israel, India, France
and other countries in virology research starting so late in the “game” as it did, and in the wake
of COVID-19 clearly has a reason to continue with its research, regardless as to what some
amateur Indian “journalists” think about it. incidentally considers the entire Indian research foray into the COVID-19 outbreak
and the “journalism” that accompanies it, hogwash.
2b) India’s pursuance of international military aggression against other countries
Pakistan is a very close ally and neighbor of China and India has engaged in war with Pakistan
several times since 1945
• Indo-Pakistani War of 1947
• Indo-Pakistani War of 1965
• Indo-Pakistani War of 1971
• Indo-Pakistani War of 1999
• 5 August 2019 following Revocation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir via
scrapping of the Article 370 of the Constitution of India, Article 35A of the Constitution
of India and the introduction of Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019.[5][6]
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Since 5 August, no foreign journalists have been granted permission from the Indian
government to report in Kashmir; even American Senators are denied entry.53
• Oct. 31, 2019 India strips Kashmir of constitutional autonomy and divides it in two
In fact, the War in Kashmir has been ongoing since 1947 and most battles are not reported in
the international media.54
3) India - Specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically
The Great Game
“A state, like a class, has its moment in history and must make the best
use of it. Failure to do so means premature decline and, perhaps,
unnecessary poverty. Great Britain’s moment came in the 1830’s when,
as the first industrialized state, she tried to create the conditions
necessary for her stability as the first world power. That the attempt
was a failure was shown by her defeat in the First Afghan War. The
attempt is now known as the Great Game in Asia and it began one
hundred and fifty years ago, on 12 January 1830, when the President of
the Board of Control for India, Lord Ellenborough told the GovernorGeneral, Lord William Bentinck, to open up a new route to Bokhara.”
Great Britain's Great Game: An Introduction, by Edward Ingram, The
International History Review, Vol. 2, No. 2 (Apr., 1980), pp. 160-171
The so-called Great Game must have seemed fun to the British aristocracy at the time, however
for the thousands of British “lads” that fought and died in those wars it wasn’t a game. For the
millions of people in Africa, Asia and the Americas that suffered and died, it wasn’t a game
either. It’s tragic some reckless individuals in India are apparently taking what is an enormous
human tragedy, the deadly COVID-19 epidemic and trying to turn it into some kind of “great
game” in a tragic copy of the ill-fated British “great game.”
It is logical that both the White House and President Xi are claiming COVID-19 came about as a
natural event, when in fact it could have been an accidental or intentional containment leak, or
any number of foreign state actors could have initiated it.
True, circumstantial evidence points most directly at the USA, or a third-party nation such as
India, Israel, the UK, and France, however proof will be difficult or impossible to come by.
There are those who believe there are no rules in “The Great Game,”
and perhaps should be
reminded that in the end, it’s the narrative of the history books that determines if it was a
53 e.g.
54 This author visited “Free Kashmir” (the Pakistani side while working as a reporter) in 1993 and
conducted a survey of Kashmiris. A significant margin of Kashmiris reported that the USA, Russia and
Israel were helping India in its war to maintain hegemony in Kashmir. In April 1948 UNSC Res. 47 of 21
granted a plebiscite to Kashmir, however that was never honored. UN Peacekeepers have never been
allowed in Kashmir. India with American help controls most of the news of most of South Asia.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“game,” or just another form of extreme predatory violence, sacrificing human lives on the altar
of some group’s super-inflated ego.
There should be no pride in the slaughter of innocents and the victims of COVID-19 are
innocent, as are those heroic individuals who risk their lives to fight against the treachery of
colonialism, the injuries it inflicts upon entire populations and the wounds that in some cases
never heal.
The Chinese leadership should be respected for its willingness to “stand down,” while
maintaining the moral high ground and enduring this time of great suffering and danger without
pointing fingers or blaming others. Some things may never be known with certainty.55
Perhaps Global Times newspaper is right when describing some US officials maligning China
during this tragic COVID-19 epidemic as schadenfreude. also presents a lengthy interview with Dr. Francis Boyle, an attorney who
helped draft the Biological Weapons Act. Reading the interview is a bit like watching a waltz, or
perhaps a Tango, specifically the Assassins Tango.
“Geopolitics and Empire: And you've also mentioned in the email to me
that what happened in the biosafety lab level 4 in Wuhan calls into
question the safety of all of these level 3and 4four labs around the world.
“Dr. Francis Boyle: They’re complete unsafe. BSL-3 and BSL-4 lab are only
designed for research development testing of offense of biological
warfare agents. In my opinion, they serve no legitimate purpose at all.
They should all be shut down, every one of them. Even assuming, they’re
simply too dangerous. If you want, there’s an excellent documentary
called Anthrax Wars by Nadler and Coen and I’m in there. Repeatedly at
the end, I say with respect to these labs, three and four, this is a
catastrophe waiting to happen. Well, I’m afraid the catastrophe is now
happened. So there it is.”
This seems like a rather unlikely answer by Dr. Francis Boyle. For example, China’s BSL-4 Wuhan
Institute of Virology was designed and built under the direction of Galveston National laboratory,
and WHO, and other American partners include the University of Alabama, University of North
Texas, EcoHealth Alliance, Harvard University, The National Institutes of Health, the United States,
55 This writer has made a life habit of analyzing complex systems and evaluating probability and risk, and the final
word on the yellow journalism coming from India is: “Methinks thou dost protest too much.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

and National Wildlife Federation.56 It seems very unlikely all those distinguished bodies would
help China build a laboratory specifically and only for creating bioweapons.
Another extract from that interview reads as follows:
“Geopolitics and Empire: Would you basically consider what happened
and Wuhan and just boil it down to ineptitude or incompetence on the
Chinese part?
“Dr. Francis Boyle: Well, it’s criminality. It does appear they stole
something there from Winnipeg. This activity that they engaged in clearly
violates the Biological Weapons Convention. Research development of
biological weapons these days is an international crime, the use of it
would be. That was criminal.
“I’m not saying they deliberately inflicted this on their own people, but it
leaked out of there and all these BSL-4 facilities leak. Everyone knows that
who studies this. So this was a catastrophe waiting to happen.
Unfortunately, it happened. The Chinese government under Xi and his
comrades there have been covering this up from the get-go. The first
reported case was December 1, so they’d been sitting on this until they
couldn’t anymore. And everything they’re telling you is a lie. It’s
“The WHO still refuses to declare a global health emergency. It said
Tedros was over there shaking hands with Xi and smiling and yanking it
up. The WHO was in on it. They’ve approved many of these BSL-4 labs.,
they know exactly what’s going on and that is a WHO research-approved
laboratory. They know what’s going on too. You can’t really believe
anything the WHO is telling you about this, either they’re up to their
eyeballs in it, in my opinion.”
Again, there are a huge number of unreferenced and unproven assertions
in this quote that defames China is several ways. For example: “Dr. Boyle:
Well, it’s criminality.” This sentence confirms, without evidence it was an
accidental leak, with criminal blame assigned to it. That is highly
prejudicial. “It appears they stole something from Winnipeg.” That is not
proven, and according to the guidelines discussed above of BTWC Article
X - “WHA Resolution 55.16 (18/05/2002) member states are supposed to
share materials for research. There should have been no reason for a
Chinese scientist to “steal” a virus sample in Winnipeg. “This activity that
they engaged in clearly violates the Biological Weapons Convention.”
Again, where is the evidence of this? Dr. Francis Boyle appears to be
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

acting like a judge, jury and media executioner with quotes like that. “The
WHO was in on it. They’ve approved many of these BSL-4 labs., they know
exactly what’s going on and that is a WHO research-approved laboratory.
They know what’s going on too. You can’t really believe anything the
WHO is telling you about this, either they’re up to their eyeballs in it, in
my opinion.”
The World Health Organization is helping China make biological weapons that are illegal in
international law? That lacks face validity. Where would WHO’s motivation come from for a crime
like that?
Most of the article is highly inflammatory with false unproven ridiculous allegations that appear
to have the purpose of smearing China. Were Chinese people to read that it would spread alarm
and distrust in the Chinese government, exactly the kind of disinformation campaign a hostile
nation’s intelligence agency would concoct. The does have many
characteristics of an intelligence operation, and the interview with Dr. Boyle makes it appear to
be a joint US/Indian intelligence operation.
To write that the internet site is “sensationalistic” is not an exaggeration:
• EXPLOSIVE: Scientist Frank Plummer Key to Coronavirus Investigation
• Exclusive: Coronavirus Bioweapon – How Chinese agents stole Coronavirus from
Canada and weaponized it
• Update: Chinese Biowarfare agents at Harvard University caught smuggling deadly viruses
• Update 2: Indian Scientists Discover Coronavirus Engineered With AIDS Like Insertions
Exactly fitting the description of “yellow journalism” (“EXPLOSIVE”) and also constituting
defamation and a potential intelligence operation designed to diminish China’s reputation in the
international marketplace and diminish Chinese people’s trust in their own government. It may
be a “great game” for the creators of that internet site, however it isn’t to the innocent victims
of COVID-19, their family members or all of the innocent people in China and around the world
who are conned by that kind of targeted disinformation.
Were they writing ordinary tabloid news, say for example about flying cat harassing Brad Pitt,
one might smile and forget it. However, given the massive and destructive campaign to malign
China, and destroy its economy, is more than just offensive, its potentially
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

an offensive intelligence operation and a violation of the UN Charter via interfering in the
domestic affairs of a foreign state. (Chapter 1, Article 2, No. 4)
Indians have been caught doing this before even in the recent past57 although in the case of the
“” internet site and specifically the interview with Dr. Boyle it appears to be
a joint American/Indian offensive intelligence operation.
The Indian “” internet site appears
to be part of the smear China campaign the American
Department of Defense has been peddling since Hillary
Clinton’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy came into effect.
Where does the “” internet site get its funding? Is it an operation of India’s
foreign intelligence agency the “Research and Analysis Wing” (RAW)? If yes, would that further
implicate India as a, or the possible causative actor in the launching of what could be a biological
weapon attack in Wuhan? Given the indications that the interview with Dr. Boyle presented on
the “” internet site makes it appear to be a joint Indian/American (illegal)
intelligence operation, is it possible that the COVID-19 epidemic is also a joint Indian/American
intelligence operation and a crime against humanity?
India’s role in the current COVID-19 epidemic is not surprising, as they had two hundred years’
experience as a colonized people and some, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi
apparently feel the need to continue as a willing servant to western hegemony.58
1) UK bioweapon history and capability
“In the United Kingdom, the Microbiological Research Department was
established in 1947 and expanded in 1951 (2, 21). Plans for pilot biological
warfare were made, and research continued on the development of new
biological agents and weapons design. Britain conducted several trials
with biological warfare agents in the Bahamas, in the Isles of Lewis, and
in Scottish waters to refine these weapons.”
57 “Pro-Indian 'fake websites targeted decision makers in Europe” by Flora Carmichael & Abid Hussain BBC
World Service, Dec. 16, 2019
58 It’s difficult to imagine that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unaware that after destroying
China, the US will turn its guns on India as they are after all, not white and “Christian.” India is only a
useful tool at the minute and will be sent back to the stone ages, discarded, as soon as it is conveniently
possible. China is the main target now, however India is sure to follow. Ditto for Saudi Arabia and Israel.
France and the UK will be tolerated for the time being as long as they remain ex-world powers aspiring to
no roles greater than being relatively isolated poor nations. The realpolitik of today is: kowtow to
American absolute hegemony in perpetuity, or be destroyed by it. In the vernacular this might be
phrased: Bend over, shave your hind parts and oil up in preparation for ritual mounting by the alpha
monkey, the USA. International law? Forget it. It’s just another tool of American hegemony. The UN was
intentionally structured to be a “do-nothing” organization.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

In the United Kingdom, the Microbiological Research Department was established in 1947 and
expanded in 1951. Plans for pilot biological warfare were made and research continued on the
development of new biological agents and weapons design. Britain conducted several trials with
biological warfare agents in the Bahamas, in the Isles of Lewis, and in Scottish waters to refine
these weapons.
Other allegations occurred during the post—World War II period (11):
The Eastern European press stated that Great Britain had used biological weapons in Oman in
2a) UK history of military aggression against China specifically
William John Napier (1786-1834) was a British Royal Navy officer and trade representative in
China. It was he who first suggested that the British “take possession” of Hong Kong.
“Lord Napier distinctly recommended that a small British force ‘should take possession of the
Island of Hongkong, in the eastern entrance of the Canton River, which is admirably adapted for
every purpose.’” (Eitel, E. J. 1882)
“Every purpose” came to include importing thousands of tons of opium into China. Due to the
military superiority of the British Navy in 1842 the Chinese had no choice but to surrender Hong
Kong to the British, and it along with Guangzhou (Canton) quickly became the centers of
massive opium distribution in China.
The second Governor, Sir John Davis, once remarked that “almost every person in Hong Kong in
possession of capital and not connected with government employment was employed in the
opium trade. In fact, few of the leading firms in Hong Kong were not connected with the
discreditable but profitable traffic in opium.”
Chinese authorities have also alleged that the USA caused a cholera epidemic in Hong Kong in
In sum, the very unequal relationship with the British was disastrous for China which was in the
middle of a revolutionary war to overthrow the corrupt foreign supported Manchu Qing Dynasty
in which at least 50 million Chinese were killed.
2b) UK pursuance of other international military aggression
For almost five centuries the British Empire ruled much of the world. It was not a benign
rulership. By 1913, the British Empire held the lives over 412 million people, 23% of the world
population at the time, in its iron grip and by 1920 it lorded over 35,500,000 km, 24% of the
Earth’s total land area.
“Let's end the myths of Britain's imperial past
“David Cameron would have us look back to the days of the British empire
with pride. But there is little in the brutal oppression and naked greed
with which it was built that deserves our respect.
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“Britain's empire was established, and maintained for more than two
centuries, through bloodshed, violence, brutality, conquest and war. Not
a year went by without large numbers of its inhabitants being obliged to
suffer for their involuntary participation in the colonial experience.
Slavery, famine, prison, battle, murder, extermination – these were their
various fates...
“For much of its early history, the British ruled their empire through
terror. The colonies were run as a military dictatorship, often under
martial law, and the majority of colonial governors were military officers.
"Special" courts and courts martial were set up to deal with dissidents,
and handed out rough and speedy injustice. Normal judicial procedures
were replaced by rule through terror; resistance was crushed, rebellion
suffocated. No historical or legal work deals with martial law. It means
the absence of law, other than that decreed by a military governor.”
Like American foreign aggression, British can only be described as infinite.
Since 1945 the UK has participated in innumerable conflicts, including the following:
Greek Civil War (1944-1947)
Palestine- (1945-1948)
War in Vietnam (1945-1946)
Indonesian Revolution (1945-1946)
Malayan Emergency-(1948-1960)
Korean War-(1950-1953)
Anglo-Egyptian War of 1951-1952 (1951-1952)
Mau Mau Insurgency-(1952-1956)
Cyprus Emergency--(1955-1959)
Suez/Sinai War (1956)
Muscat and Oman Intervention (1957-1959)
Jordan Intervention (1958)
Brunei Revolt-(December, 1962)
Malaysia-Indonesia Confrontation (1963-1966)
Ugandan Army Mutiny (1964)
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Dhofar Rebellion (1962-1976)
Aden Conflict-(1964-1967)
The Conflict in Northern Ireland (1969-1998)
The Falkland Islands War (1982)
Gulf War (1991)
No-Fly Zone War (1991-2003)
Bosnian War (1992-1996)
Kosovo War (1999)
British military intervention in the Sierra Leone Civil War (2000-2002)
Afghanistan War (2001-2014)
Iraq War (2003-2009)
Libyan War (2011)
ISIS War (2014-Present)
3) UK specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically
The UK is probably the USA’s closest ally and has displayed undisguised hegemonic tendencies
for the past 500 years. Perhaps the aristocracy and other leaders of Great Britain believe that by
riding on the coattails of the USA they can regain some of the glory of their former “great”
empire, however it appears instead they have gotten sucked down the same old pathways of
cruelties and dishonor as before their empire crumbled, as evidenced by the debacles in the
deserts of Iraq and Afghanistan. Still, they stand by and march lockstep behind the USA, perhaps
not realizing it was the USA that elevated the Nazis in Germany to the lofty financial and military
height from which their wild rampage across Europe was launched and which resulted in the
violent deaths of so many British and other innocent people. The games of empire are profitable
for the few, but come at far too high a price for the majority.
Where is the British spirit that preserved through the Roman colonization of England north of
Hadrian’s wall(?) and rose up and fought in defiance of King John forcing him to sign the Magna
Carta? Instead now are the British people satisfied to be nothing more than the obedient slave
of a colonizer far more brutal than even the Romans, ruled by leaders more decadent than
Caligula and King John combined?
And what about the great British Common Law? Are the homes of the Afghans, Iraqis, and
Chinese any less their castles than the homes of the British?
Perhaps the great bard Shakespeare was right reading into the mind of Mark Anthony: “The evil
that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones.”
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The ultra-wealthy British aristocracy and corporate shareholder are most certainly highly likely to
support American hegemony, for without it they might actually have to get jobs and work for a
living. Instead, harvesting the blood of innocents via weapons sales and stolen natural resources
from “people of color” in “developing” countries is so much more lucrative and easier.
Likewise British foreign intelligence is possible the world master of deception, provocation,
division and conquest through guile. The motto of the British SAS is: ‘Who Dares Wins.’
There is no doubt China’s people and economy have been severely hurt by the COVID-19 epidemic
and if this was a bioweapons attack it absolutely falls within the well-established racist and greed
motivated habit and pattern of British foreign policy for the past 500 years.
1) French bioweapon history and capability
France is a “well-armed” country. For example, it maintains an arsenal of approximately 300
nuclear weapons. France occupies holds one of the Five Permanent Seats on the UN Security
Council. Its history with biological weapons is well established.
“France possessed a biological weapons program from 1921 to 1926 and
again from 1935 to 1940. During these periods, France weaponized the
potato beetle and conducted research on the pathogens that cause
anthrax, salmonella, cholera, and rinderpest. Its scientists also
investigated botulinum toxin and ricin.
“Manufactured significant quantities of Sarin and VX nerve agents during
the 1960s, but asserted in 1988 that it no longer possessed or produced
chemical weapons.
“Currently developing a next-generation ballistic missile for its SSBNs
“It acceded to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) on
27 September 1984, and is a member of the Australia Group.”
2a) French history of military aggression against China specifically


France has had good international relations with modern China however during the late 1800s
and early 1900s was one of the Eight-Nation Alliance military coalition along with Britain and
that US that occupied parts of eastern China.
2b) French pursuance of other international military aggression
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Figure 1
1. Franco-Syrian War (May, 1945)
2. The First Indochina War (1945-1954)
3. Cold War (1945-1991)
4. The Madagascar Revolt (1947-1948)
5. The Korean War (1950-1953)
6. Tunisian War of Independence (1952-1955)
7. Moroccan War of Independence (1953-1956)
8. Franco-Tunisian Border Conflict (1957)
9. The Algerian War of Independence (1954-1962)
10. Suez War (1956)
11. Basque Separatist Campaign (1958-Present)
12. Second Franco-Tunisian War [The Bizerte Incident] (1961)
13. Gabon Intervention (1964)
14. First Katangan War (1977)
15. Second Katangan War (1978)
16. Central African Republic Intervention (September, 1979)
17. Intervention in Lebanese Civil War (1982-1984)
18. New Caledonian Uprising (1984-1985)
19. Gabon Intervention (May, 1990)
20. Second Persian Gulf War (1991)
21. Intervention in Somalia (1991-1992)
22. Central African Republic Intervention (April, 1996)
23. Central African Republic Intervention (May, 1996)
24. Central African Republic Intervention (Nov. 1996-Jan. 1997)
25. Kosovo War (1999)
26. Afghanistan War (2001-Present)
27. Ivory Coast (Cote de Ivorie) Intervention (2003-Present)
28. Central African Republic Intervention (2006)
29. Libyan War (2011)
30. Mali War (2013-Ongoing)
31. Central African Republic Intervention (2013-Ongoing)
32. Islamic State War (2014-Ongoing)
Edited list from:
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Françafrique: A brief history of a scandalous word
“A Janus-faced entity – one African, the other French – Françafrique is
the ultimate symbol of a confiscated, perverted sovereignty. This singular
coinage perfectly illustrates France’s dogged refusal to decolonize. And
as Senegalese novelist Boubacar Boris Diop notes, as such it continues to
beget little monsters.
“On the one hand, African heads of state were handpicked by Paris, after
two “job interviews,” first with Jacques Foccart, General de Gaulle’s
trusted advisor on African matters, then with de Gaulle himself, if the first
screening was conclusive. Nothing was ever said on record, of course, but
the African president thus “elected” was neither foolish nor foolhardy,
and knew what was expected of him: to put the resources of his country
at France’s disposal and routinely vote alongside the latter at the UN.
“To put it bluntly, this politician should never forget that he was nothing
but a puppet, or that he must consider a foreign country’s interests
before taking any decision or signing any bill. This approach is how France
has maintained, since the sixties and up to the present day, its status as
a “world power” wielding a modicum of clout, and feels more…
independent vis-à-vis its powerful American ally! As long as the terms of
this “gentlemen’s agreement” are complied with, the African president
can toss his political opponents to the sharp toothed, flesh-hungry
crocodiles frothing in his private pond, crown himself emperor, embezzle
and deposit billions in Swiss accounts, all without fearing the slightest
rebuke. In any case, the well-oiled engine runs only through back
channels and shady networks.
“Further, all that has been done and said by French authorities in the
wake of the so-called “Arab Spring’’ – the infamous assassination of
Gaddafi in Libya and the occupation of Mali – is consistent with the
political rationale behind Françafrique.
“France also heavily weighing in on the Gabonese presidential election
that took place on 28 August. As it is, the system has strongly adjusted
itself to the new multicentric geopolitical environment, and is therefore
still very much in place. As Brecht said of Nazism after 1945, ‘the bitch is
still in heat.’”
An exaggeration? No. France is still very much a colonial power in Africa supported by American
military might emanating from AFRICOM.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

French continued domination in Africa is totally dependent on the USA maintaining global
hegemony. In a multi-polar world with the International Criminal Court actually functioning as it
should, France would have to restructure its economy and learn to survive on its own without the
vampire-like blood it drains from African natural resources and the millions of human lives it
crushes beneath its iron boot.
“‘La Françafrique’: The Special Relationship Between France and Its
Former Colonies in Africa, by Tuğba Korkmaz, August 2, 2019
“Former colonial power France was the second largest empire in the
world after Britain and the biggest in Africa during the 19th and 20th
centuries. Even after the colonial times came to an end and most of the
colonies gained their independence, the vestiges of colonialism remains
and France maintains special relations with its former colonies. The first
Ivorian President Félix Houphouët-Boigny introduced the expression ‘La
Françafrique’ in 1955 to define the wish of some members of the African
elite to maintain special relations with France after their independence.
Since then, this term has been used several times in a pejorative meaning
to describe French neo-colonial dominance in Africa...
“Colonial Ideology: Racism and Propaganda
‘”Colonization is a first-order political necessity. A nation that doesn’t
colonize is irrevocably destined for socialism and war between rich and
poor’[1] said French philosopher Ernest Renan.
“‘Superior races have a right towards inferior races… because there is a
duty for them… They have the duty to civilize inferior races’. This is what
Jules Ferry, the proponent of secular, compulsory and free school
affirmed in the Chamber of Deputies.[2]
“The abolitionist Alexis de Tocqueville and Victor Schoelcher also
supported colonialism. ‘There is neither need nor duty to allow our
Muslim subjects to have exaggerate ideas on their own importance or to
show that we have to treat them as if they were our fellow or our equal
citizens. They know that we have a leading position in Africa’ wrote
Tocqueville in his report on Algeria in 1847.[3]”
Nothing has changed.
“France/Afrique : 14 African Countries Forced by France to Pay Colonial
Tax For the Benefits of Slavery and Colonization by Mawuna Remarque
Koutonin, 30 Jan, 2014
“Did you know many African countries continue to pay colonial tax to
France since their independence till today!
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

“When Sékou Touré of Guinea decided in 1958 to get out of French
colonial empire, and opted for the country independence, the French
colonial elite in Paris got so furious, and in a historic act of fury the French
administration in Guinea destroyed everything in the country which
represented what they called the benefits from French colonization.
“Three thousand French left the country, taking all their property and
destroying anything that which could not be moved: schools, nurseries,
public administration buildings were crumbled; cars, books, medicine,
research institute instruments, tractors were crushed and sabotaged;
horses, cows in the farms were killed, and food in warehouses were
burned or poisoned.
“The purpose of this outrageous act was to send a clear message to all
other colonies that the consequences for rejecting France would be very
“Slowly fear spread through the African elite, and none after the Guinea
events ever found the courage to follow the example of Sékou Touré,
whose slogan was “We prefer freedom in poverty to opulence in slavery.”
“Sylvanus Olympio, the first president of the Republic of Togo, a tiny
country in west Africa, found a middle ground solution with the French.
He didn’t want his country to continue to be a French dominion,
therefore he refused to sign the colonization continuation pact De Gaulle
proposed, but agree to pay an annual debt to France for the so-called
benefits Togo got from French colonization. It was the only conditions for
the French not to destroy the country before leaving. However, the
amount estimated by France was so big that the reimbursement of the
so called “colonial debt” was close to 40% of the country budget in 1963.
“The financial situation of the newly independent Togo was very unstable,
so in order to get out the situation, Olympio decided to get out the French
colonial money FCFA (the franc for French African colonies), and issue the
county own currency.
“On January 13, 1963, three days after he started printing his country
own currency, a squad of illiterate soldiers backed by France killed the
first elected president of newly independent Africa. Olympio was killed
by an ex French Foreign Legionnaire army sergeant called Etienne
Gnassingbe who supposedly received a bounty of $612 from the local
French embassy for the hit man job.
“Olympio’s dream was to build an independent and self-sufficient and
self-reliant country. But the French didn’t like the idea.
“On June 30, 1962, Modiba Keita, the first president of the Republic of
Mali, decided to withdraw from the French colonial currency FCFA which
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was imposed on 12 newly independent African countries. For the Malian
president, who was leaning more to a socialist economy, it was clear that
colonization continuation pact with France was a trap, a burden for the
country development.
“On November 19, 1968, like, Olympio, Keita will be the victim of a coup
carried out by another ex-French Foreign legionnaire, the Lieutenant
Moussa Traoré.
“In fact during that turbulent period of African fighting to liberate
themselves from European colonization, France would repeatedly use
many ex Foreign legionnaires to carry out coups against elected
- On January 1st, 1966, Jean-Bédel Bokassa, an ex-French foreign
legionnaire, carried a coup against David Dacko, the first President of the
Central African Republic.
- On January 3, 1966, Maurice Yaméogo, the first President of the
Republic of Upper Volta, now called Burkina Faso, was victim of a coup
carried by Aboubacar Sangoulé Lamizana, an ex-French legionnaire who
fought with French troops in Indonesia and Algeria against these
countries independence.
- on 26 October 1972, Mathieu Kérékou who was a security guard to
President Hubert Maga, the first President of the Republic of Benin,
carried a coup against the president, after he attended French military
schools from 1968 to 1970.
“In fact, during the last 50 years, a total of 67 coups happened in 26
countries in Africa, 16 of those countries are french ex-colonies, which
means 61% of the coups happened in Francophone Africa.
“Ex-French colonies Other African countries Country Number of coup
Country number of coup Togo 1 Egypt 1 Tunisia 1 Libya 1 Cote d’Ivoire 1
Equatorial Guinea 1 Madagascar 1 Guinea Bissau 2 Rwanda 1 Liberia 2
Algeria 2 Nigeria 3 Congo – RDC 2 Ethiopia 3 Mali 2 Uganda 4 Guinea
Conakry 2 Soudan 5 SUB-TOTAL 1 13
Congo 3
Tchad 3
Burundi 4
Central Africa 4
Niger 4
Mauritania 4
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Burkina Faso 5
Comores 5
TOTAL (1 + 2) 45 TOTAL 22
“As these numbers demonstrate, France is quite desperate but active to
keep a strong hold on his colonies whatever the cost, no matter what.
“In March 2008, former French President Jacques Chirac said:
“‘Without Africa, France will slide down into the rank of a third [world]
Chirac’s predecessor François Mitterrand already prophesied in 1957 that:
“Without Africa, France will have no history in the 21st century”
“At this very moment I’m writing this article, 14 African countries are
obliged by France, through a colonial pact, to put 85% of their foreign
reserve into France central bank under French minister of Finance control.
Until now, 2014, Togo and about 13 other African countries still have to
pay colonial debt to France. African leaders who refuse are killed or victim
of coup. Those who obey are supported and rewarded by France with
lavish lifestyle while their people endure extreme poverty, and
“It’s such an evil system even denounced by the European Union, but
France is not ready to move from that colonial system which puts about
500 billion dollars from Africa to its treasury year in year out.
“We often accuse African leaders of corruption and serving western
nations’ interests instead, but there is a clear explanation for that
behavior. They behave so because they are afraid the be killed or victim
of a coup. They want a powerful nation to back them in case of aggression
or trouble. But, contrary to a friendly nation protection, the western
protection is often offered in exchange of these leaders renouncing to
serve their own people or nations’ interests.
“African leaders would work in the interest of their people if they were
not constantly stalked and bullied by colonial countries...
“France has been holding the national reserves of fourteen African
countries since 1961: Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast,
Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Congo-Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
“The monetary policy governing such a diverse aggregation of countries
is uncomplicated because it is, in fact, operated by the French Treasury,
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without reference to the central fiscal authorities of any of the WAEMU
or the CEMAC. Under the terms of the agreement which set up these
banks and the CFA the Central Bank of each African country is obliged to
keep at least 65% of its foreign exchange reserves in an “operations
account” held at the French Treasury, as well as another 20% to cover
financial liabilities.
“The CFA central banks also impose a cap on credit extended to each
member country equivalent to 20% of that country’s public revenue in
the preceding year. Even though the BEAC and the BCEAO have an
overdraft facility with the French Treasury, the drawdowns on those
overdraft facilities are subject to the consent of the French Treasury. The
final say is that of the French Treasury which has invested the foreign
reserves of the African countries in its own name on the Paris Bourse.
“In short, more than 80% of the foreign reserves of these African
countries are deposited in the “operations accounts” controlled by the
French Treasury. The two CFA banks are African in name, but have no
monetary policies of their own. The countries themselves do not know,
nor are they told, how much of the pool of foreign reserves held by the
French Treasury belongs to them as a group or individually.
“The earnings of the investment of these funds in the French Treasury
pool are supposed to be added to the pool but no accounting is given to
either the banks or the countries of the details of any such changes. The
limited group of high officials in the French Treasury who have knowledge
of the amounts in the “operations accounts”, where these funds are
invested; whether there is a profit on these investments; are prohibited
from disclosing any of this information to the CFA banks or the central
banks of the African states .” Wrote Dr. Gary K. Busch
“It’s now estimated that France is holding close to 500 billions African
countries money in its treasury, and would do anything to fight anyone
who want to shed a light on this dark side of the old empire.”
French colonialization in Africa is 100% supported by the USA.
U.S. Military Says It Has a “Light Footprint” in Africa. These Documents
Show a Vast Network of Bases.
Nick Turse, December 1 2018
“The U.S. military has long insisted that it maintains a “light footprint” in
Africa, and there have been reports of proposed drawdowns in special
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operations forces and closures of outposts on the continent, due to a
2017 ambush in Niger and an increasing focus on rivals like China and
Russia. But through it all, U.S. Africa Command has fallen short of
providing concrete information about its bases on the continent, leaving
in question the true scope of the American presence there.
“Documents obtained from AFRICOM by The Intercept, via the Freedom
of Information Act, however, offer a unique window onto the sprawling
network of U.S. military outposts in Africa, including previously
undisclosed or unconfirmed sites in hotspots like Libya, Niger, and
Somalia. The Pentagon has also told The Intercept that troop reductions
in Africa will be modest and phased-in over several years and that no
outposts are expected to close as a result of the personnel cuts.
“According to a 2018 briefing by AFRICOM science adviser Peter E. Teil,
the military’s constellation of bases includes 34 sites scattered across the
continent, with high concentrations in the north and west as well as the
Horn of Africa. These regions, not surprisingly, have also seen numerous
U.S. drone attacks and low-profile commando raids in recent years. For
example, Libya — the site of drone and commando missions, but for
which President Donald Trump said he saw no U.S. military role just last
year — is nonetheless home to three previously undisclosed outposts.
“‘U.S. Africa Command’s posture plan is designed to secure strategic
access to key locations on a continent characterized by vast distances and
limited infrastructure,’ Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, the AFRICOM
commander, told the House Armed Services Committee earlier this year,
though he didn’t provide specifics on the number of bases. ‘Our posture
network allows forward staging of forces to provide operational flexibility
and timely response to crises involving U. S. personnel or interests
without creating the optic that U. S. Africa Command is militarizing Africa.’
“According to Adam Moore, an assistant professor of geography at the
University of California, Los Angeles and an expert on the U.S. military’s
presence in Africa, ‘It is getting harder for the U.S. military to plausibly
claim that it has a ‘light footprint’ in Africa. In just the past five years, it
has established what is perhaps the largest drone complex in the world
in Djibouti — Chabelley — which is involved in wars on two continents,
Yemen, and Somalia.” Moore also noted that the U.S. is building an even
larger drone base in Agadez, Niger. ‘Certainly, for people living in Somalia,
Niger, and Djibouti, the notion that the U.S. is not militarizing their
countries rings false,’ he added.”
“For the last 10 years, AFRICOM has not only sought to define its
presence as limited in scope, but its military outposts as small, temporary,
and little more than local bases where Americans are tenants. For
instance, this is how Waldhauser described a low-profile drone outpost
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in Tunisia last year: “And it’s not our base, it’s the Tunisians’ base.” On a
visit to a U.S. facility in Senegal this summer, the AFRICOM chief took
pains to emphasize that the U.S. had no intension of establishing a
permanent base there. Still, there’s no denying the scope of AFRICOM’s
network of outposts, nor the growth in infrastructure. Air Forces Africa
alone, the command’s air component, has recently completed or is
currently working on nearly 30 construction projects across four
countries in Africa. “The U.S. footprint on the African continent has grown
markedly over the last decade to promote U.S. security interests on the
continent,” Navy Cmdr. Candice Tresch, a Pentagon spokesperson, told
The Intercept.
“While China, France, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates have
increased their own military engagement in Africa in recent years and a
number of countries now possess outposts on the continent, none
approach the wide-ranging U.S. footprint. China, for example, has just
one base in Africa – a facility in Djibouti.
“According to the documents obtained by The Intercept through the
Freedom of Information Act, AFRICOM’s network of bases includes larger
“enduring” outposts, consisting of forward operating sites, or FOSes, and
cooperative security locations, or CSLs, as well as more numerous austere
sites known as contingency locations, or CLs. All of these are located on
the African continent except for an FOS on Britain’s Ascension Island in
the south Atlantic. Teil’s map of AFRICOM’s “Strategic Posture” names
the specific locations of all 14 FOSes and CSLs and provides countryspecific locales for the 20 contingency locations. The Pentagon would not
say whether the tally was exhaustive, however, citing concerns about
publicly providing the number of forces deployed to specific facilities or
individual countries. “For reasons of operational security, complete and
specific force lay-downs are not releasable,” said Tresch.
“While troops and outposts periodically come and go from the continent,
and some locations used by commandos conducting sensitive missions
are likely kept under wraps, Teil’s map represents the most current and
complete accounting available and indicates the areas of the continent of
greatest concern to Africa Command. “The distribution of bases suggests
that the U.S. military is organized around three counter-terrorism
theaters in Africa: the Horn of Africa — Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya; Libya;
and the Sahel — Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso,” says
Niger, Somalia, and Kenya
“Teil’s briefing confirms, for the first time, that the U.S. military currently
has more sites in Niger — five, including two cooperative security
locations — than any other country on the western side of the continent.
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Niamey, the country’s capital, is the location of Air Base 101, a longtime
U.S. drone outpost attached to Diori Hamani International Airport; the
site of a Special Operations Advanced Operations Base; and the West
Africa node for AFRICOM’s contractor-provided personnel recovery and
casualty evacuation services. The other CSL, in the remote smuggling hub
of Agadez, is set to become the premier U.S. military outpost in West
Africa. That drone base, located at Nigerien Air Base 201, not only boasts
a $100 million construction price tag but, with operating expenses, is
estimated to cost U.S. taxpayers more than a quarter-billion dollars by
2024 when the 10-year agreement for its use ends.”
In other words, Africa is a French-American colony conveniently ignored by the western
democracies’ mainstream media, in defiance of all international laws and morality.
French aggression in Africa is without limit and largely unrecorded.
3) French specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically
The French economy as it is absolutely requires the maintenance of Euro-American monopolar
domination in the world. China, particularly with its Belt and Road Initiative offers the possibility
of the emergence of a multi-polar world, something which those nations (France, Israel, the
USA) most heavily reliant on colonial extraction of natural resources from developing countries
strongly fears.
Consequently, though on the surface French-Chinese relations are very good, under the surface
France is highly motivated to see the Chinese economy fail in order to assure it can continue its
colonial exploitation of Africa forever.
Also see:
1) Israeli bioweapon history and capability
At appears the history of Israeli research and development of bioweapons goes back to shortly
after its founding, at least to 1952.
Due to its very tight security systems not a lot is known about Israeli bioweapons programs.
However, information “containment leaks” are as or more common than nuclear and
bioweapon leaks.
Israel Institute for Biological Research
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“Israel Institute for Biological Research is an Israeli government defense
research institute specializing in biology, medicinal chemistry and
environmental science. The institute's work is a closely guarded secret.”

Also see:
Victor Ostrovsky, a former Mossad case officer, the author of several books has shed some light
on the inner workings of the Israeli bioweapons’ programs:
Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 1998, pages 19-20
The Ostrovsky Files
“Crash of Cargo Plane in Holland Revealed Existence of Israeli Chemical
and Biological Weapons Plant
By Victor Ostrovsky
“On Oct. 4, 1992 a Tel Aviv-bound El Al cargo aircraft crashed into an
apartment complex in Bijlmermeer, a neighborhood on the outskirts of
Amsterdam a few minutes after takeoff from the nearby Shipol airport.
The crash of the Boeing 747-200 killed 39 people on the ground and all
four crew members.
“The plane’s cargo was the subject of wide speculation for the next six
years. The local media suspected something was not right when the crash
site was cordoned off and access was limited to non-Dutch search teams
in space suit-like protective gear…
“For years following the crash, however, residents of the surrounding
neighborhoods displayed a uniquely high number of unusual ailments…
“Finally, on Oct. 1 of this year (1998), the Dutch daily newspaper NRC
Handelsblad reported it had obtained documents confirming that when
the El Al flight crashed six years ago it had on board 190 liters of dimethyl
methyl phosphonate (DMMP), a chemical used to produce Sarin, the
nerve gas used to deadly effect by members of a religious cult on the
Tokyo subway system.
“The following day a spokesman for El Al, the Israeli national airline,
confirmed that “the documentation states that DMMP was on the plane,
that it was packed in accordance with the international regulations
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governing uplift of this material, and the document was signed by the
captain stating that everything was in order prior to departure. All of
these documents were turned over to the Dutch authorities after the
accident.” It was further learned that the chemical in question was
ordered by the Israeli biological institute in Nes Zionna. Finally, the jig was
“The Dutch paper said the chemical came from Solkatronic Chemicals Inc.,
an American company based both in Pennsylvania and at 30 Two Bridges
Road, Fairfield, NJ 07004-1530. The newspaper also reported that the
amount of DMMP on board the aircraft was enough to produce up to 594
pounds of Sarin, and that three of the four main components needed for
Sarin production were on the plane.
“Solkatronic vice president John Swanziger told an Israeli newspaper that
the chemicals his company sold to the “Israel Institute for Biological
Research” were not for testing gas masks and were, in fact, on a special
restrictive list, requiring a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce
for their sale. The license was provided to the company by the office of
Israel’s prime minister prior to shipment…
“…The plant, he wrote, manufactures not only chemical and biological
weapons for use in bombs, but more unusual arms as well. It supplied the
poison for last year’s assassination attempt by the Mossad, Israel’s
equivalent of the CIA, on the life of Khaled Meshal, a Hamas Party leader
in Jordan.
“Mahanimi also attributed to official military sources a report that Israeli
assault aircraft have been equipped to carry chemical and biological
weapons manufactured at a top-secret institute near Tel Aviv. Crews of
Israel’s F-16 fighters have been trained to mount an active chemical or
biological weapon on the aircraft within minutes of receiving the
command to attack.
“Despite the fact that Israel has accused just about every country it
regards as an enemy of developing chemical and biological weapons, it
has never acknowledged its own programs to develop weapons of mass
destruction. Yet a biologist who once held a senior post in Israeli
intelligence told Mahanimi, “There is hardly a single known or unknown
form of chemical or biological weapon...which is not manufactured at the
“The institute, which covers 70 acres and is about to be expanded by as
much as 20 percent, was founded in 1952 as a single building hidden in
an orange grove. It is surrounded by a six-foot-high concrete wall topped
with sensors that reveal the exact location of any intruder. However, the
institute is omitted from all local and aerial survey maps.
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“The institute (IIBR) answers only to the office of the prime minister (as does
Mossad), but professionally is under the direction of “REFAEL” (Rashut
Pituach Amtsai Lechima). This is the weapons development authority, the
umbrella agency for the weapons development in Israel.
“Official publications disguise its more sinister activities, stating vaguely
that the institute provides services to the defense ministry as well as
chemicals for agriculture and research for civilian companies. When
elected members of the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) foreign affairs and
defense committee asked to visit the plant, however, they were denied

“The fact that none of this detail has been covered in the U.S. mainstream
media is testimony to the power of Israel’s U.S. lobby which, it seems, has
enabled the Israeli government to get away with anything up to and
including murder, over and over again.
“So the next time someone shouts, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling,”
Americans might well take a minute to look up. You never know what
might be coming down.
“Victor Ostrovsky, a former Mossad case officer, has written two books
about his experiences, By Way of Deception: The Making and Unmaking
of a Mossad Officer and The Other Side of Deception: A Rogue Agent
Exposes the Mossad’s Secret Agenda.”
Like the USA, UK, France, and India, Israel also has extensive virologic research centers in
universities and hospitals. For example:
“The lab is located in Assuta Ramat Hahayal, Tel Aviv and is focused on
gene regulators, particularly microRNAs, in order to reach a global
systems perspective on the mechanistic roles of small RNA before
disease onset and during disease development.”
It is very possible the hospital research is genuinely health related, although there are always
going to be “dual-use” applications for any particular research breakthrough.
2a) Israeli history of military aggression against China specifically
Like France, on the surface Israel has a good relationship with China. After the end of the
Chinese Civil War in 1949 Israel, following the American lead chose to recognise Taiwan as the
official China.
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It appears to have been weapons sales from Israel that brought China and Israel together
starting in 1979.59
It wasn't until 1992 that Israel and China established representative offices in Beijing and Tel
Aviv. These days Israel has good ties with China and over a thousand businesses operating in
China. Israel also appears on a very short list of preferential countries for easy Permanent
Resident cards in China (along with the US). China works hard as promoting “harmony,” even
when it appears to not be in their own interest, e.g. opening the door to thousands of foreign
intelligence officers who may potentially have the motivation to promote “regime change” in
2b) Israeli pursuance of other international military aggression
To even begin to understand Israeli aggression one must understand it was created by the
primary historic western colonial nations France and the UK, starting with the Sykes-Picot

May 16, 1916 - Sykes-Picot Agreement Sets Borders
“[O]n May 16, 1916, the Sykes-Picot Agreement, officially known as the
Asia Minor Agreement, laid down the borders of the Middle East as we
have known them for a century. The diplomats, Francois Georges-Picot
for France and Sir Mark Sykes for Britain, had worked out the details in
five months of negotiations, from November 1915 to March 1916.
“The agreement was marked out on a map with grease pencil in a series
of straight lines, most likely to create 'uncomplicated borders.' The
agreement divided the land that had been under Ottoman rule since the
early 16th century into new countries in two spheres of influence: Iraq,
Transjordan and Palestine under British control; and Syria and Lebanon
under French control.”
For one of several lists of Israeli foreign armed conflicts see:
At this time Israel almost completely controls the organs of government in the USA.
“US: States Use Anti-Boycott Laws to Punish Responsible Businesses,
Laws Penalize Companies that Cut Ties with Israeli Settlements, April 23,
“Twenty-seven states have adopted laws or policies that penalize
businesses, organizations, or individuals that engage in or call for
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boycotts against Israel. The laws or policies in 17 of those states
explicitly target not only companies that refuse to do business in or with
Israel, but also those that refuse to do business in Israeli settlements.
Some states whose laws do not explicitly apply to settlements have also
penalized companies that cut settlement ties.”
In January 2019, the US Senate passed a bill that endorsed state anti-boycott legislation,
including those that encompass settlement business activity.60
Before this bill was introduced and drafted in the United States Congress, twenty-six states had
passed similar legislation or had executive orders issued by their governor to restrict boycotting
of Israeli goods by state contractors. The states are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California,
Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin.61
Dissent is not tolerated in the United States when it comes to the absolute sovereignty over the
entire Middle East by Israel. Israel can kill who they like in any country, “detain,” torture and
make people “disappear” at will. Riding on the strong wings of the USA they appear to have
always experienced Teflon-like immunity to international law, in addition to sovereign-like
power within the USA.
For examples, Florida required the State Board of Administration to create a list of companies
that are boycotting Israel, and the Tennessee General Assembly called BDS a movement of
"spreading anti-Semitism and advocating the elimination of the Jewish state.
Such a thing has never happened in American history before. During South African Apartheid
many Americans boycotted South African goods which helped force an end to their apartheid
laws. That clearly will not happen in Israel’s case because their lobbyists in Washington DC are
too wealthy and influential. Any criticism of Israeli human rights abuses in Palestine are swiftly
labeled “anti-Semitic” and Americans will be punished.
On other words, Americans are forced by Israeli money and political influence to totally support
Israel or be punished. Though there are a few American congresswomen who try to resist the
wave of absolute Israeli control of the American government, they are frequently lambasted in
the media for it, they represent a small minority and their efforts have not yet at least bourn
fruit, except perhaps in regards to their symbolic value. Arch-conservative politicians usually
permit a few token minority voices to exist in order to “prove” the USA really has a fair and
balanced system, which is does not.
A U.S. Congresswoman Just Called AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs
Committee) a ‘Hate Group’
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Minnesota Rep. Betty McCollum’s comments mark the first time a
Congress member has referred to the lobby as such
by Leila Ettachfini, Feb 13 2020
“U.S. Congresswoman Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) issued a statement on
Wednesday afternoon labeling the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee (AIPAC) a hate group—the first time a Congress member has
referred to the lobby as such.
“‘AIPAC claims to be a bipartisan organization, but its use of hate speech
actually makes it a hate group,’ McCollum wrote in her statement. ‘By
weaponizing anti-Semitism and hate to silence debate, AIPAC is taunting
Democrats and mocking our core values.’
“Her statement comes in response to an AIPAC Facebook ad that directly
referenced McCollum and some of her fellow Democratic representatives.
“The radicals in the Democratic Party are pushing their anti-Semitic and
anti-Israel policies down the throats of Americans,” the ad states above
a collage of McCollum, Rep. Ilhan Omar, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib. Another
AIPAC ad allegedly linked to a petition that called the congresswomen’s
criticism of Israel “more sinister” than ISIS.”
Indeed, criticism of Israel’s policies and practices can get one very publicly labeled as “more
sinister than ISIS,” which was renowned for chopping off innocent people’s heads en masse and
other extreme crimes against humanity.
Israeli “State Capture” of the USA
The above article emphasizes that any criticism of “alleged” Israeli abuse of Palestinians or theft
of their land is labeled “anti-Semitism” and punished and the majority in the Senate and
Congress follow their mandates within the US slavishly. Though a few Congresswomen may try
to resist the Israeli total “state capture”62 of the American political process, they are thus far at
least fighting a losing battle.
“Pompeo rejects UNHRC list of companies operating in occupied
Palestine, accuses UN of ‘unrelenting anti-Israel bias’”
13 Feb, 2020
“The US government will not provide information to the UN for its list of
companies operating in occupied Palestinian territories, US State
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Secretary Mike Pompeo has said, accusing the international body of
anti-Israel bias.
“The long-delayed document, which names 112 companies operating in
the West Bank and Golan Heights, was released by the United Nations
Human Rights Council on Wednesday. Business activity in the Occupied
Palestinian Territory raises human rights concerns, the UNHRC said. The
publication was sure to provoke the ire of Israel and its main ally.
“‘The United States has long opposed the creation or release of this
database,’ Pompeo said in a statement on Thursday. ‘Its publication
only confirms the unrelenting anti-Israel bias so prevalent at the United
Nations... Attempts to isolate Israel run counter to all of our efforts to
build conditions conducive to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations that lead
to a comprehensive and enduring peace.’”
The readers of this kind of report are always left to wonder what “peace” Pompeo is referring
to, as there has been no peace in the Middle East since the adoption of United Nations
Resolution 181 on November 29, 1947 by the United Nations General Assembly of a resolution
recommending the adoption and implementation of a plan to annex a large part of Palestine
and give it to Israel. The phrase “maintaining the peace” however is a useful fiction to reassure
moderate tax payers that their foreign aid to Israel is well spent. The above quote by Secretary
of State Pompeo is only one of a long list of contentious issues between American foreign policy
and the United States.
The USA for example is backing militant Khalifa Haftar in a war against a United Nations’ backed
coalition government in Libya in the wake of the CIA orchestrated torture/rape and murder of
former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi.
In other words, Israeli aggression in Palestine, Lebanon, the entire Middle East region and
beyond even into the organs of the American political structure and media and will remain
unrestrained by law or justice only as long the USA maintains absolute global hegemony.
Even in China Israeli business people routinely break laws, use Chinese gangsters to manipulate
and in some cases destroy business competitors, buys and manipulates police at all levels and
threatens and severely punishes Chinese citizens that do not follow their dictates. The Chinese
government meekly ignores it all in its efforts to promote international harmony.
Israeli overt and covert aggression is without limit internationally.
For a real-time map of US states that have enacted anti-boycott Israel legislation, see:
3) Israeli specific motivation to destabilize China economically and/or politically
Like the US, India and France, Israel is totally committed to the destruction of China even though
somehow Chinese officials don’t appear to have figured that out yet.
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Without American military and financial support Israel could not continue to exist unless it gave
back a considerable amount of land to the Palestinians and ceased its practice of apartheid.63
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has positioned China to become a dominant world power, and
the USA and its close allies will do anything to effect “regime change” in China.
“In the Name of ‘Israel’s Security’: Retreating US Gives Israel Billions More
in Military Funding
“Despite a palpable sense of war fatigue among all Americans, regardless
of their political leaning, the US continues to sink deeper into Middle East
conflicts simply because it is unable—or, perhaps, unwilling—to
challenge Israel’s benefactors in all facets of the American government,
by Ramzy Baroud, Common Dreams, January 22, 2020
“Billions of US tax-payers’ money will continue to be funneled into Israel
in the next fiscal year, and for many years in the foreseeable future.
Republican and Democratic Senators have recently achieved just that,
passing a bill aimed at providing Israel with $3.3 billion in annual aid.
“The Bill, co-sponsored by Democratic Senator, Chris Coons and
Republican Senator, Marco Rubio, passed on January 9, only one day
after Iran struck US positions in Iraq. Enthusiasm to push the Bill forward
was meant as an assurance to Tel Aviv from Washington, that the US is
committed to Israel’s security and military superiority in the Middle East.
“Despite a palpable sense of war fatigue among all Americans, regardless
of their political leaning, the US continues to sink deeper into Middle East
conflicts simply because it is unable – or, perhaps, unwilling - to challenge
Israel’s benefactors in all facets of the American government.
“The maxim ‘What’s good for Israel is good for America’ continues to
reign supreme among Washington’s political elites, despite the fact that
such irrational thinking has wrought disasters on the Middle East region,
and is finally forcing a hasty and humiliating American retreat.
“The latest aid package to Israel will officially put into law a
“Memorandum of Understanding” that was reached between the rightwing government of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and the
Barack Obama administration in 2016. Obama had then offered Israel the
largest military aid package in US history.
“Senator Rubio explained the passing of the recent Bill in terms of the
‘unprecedented threats’ that are supposedly faced by Israel.
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“For his part, Senator Coons said that “the events of the past few days,''
referring to the US-Iran escalation, were “a stark reminder of the
importance of US assistance to Israel's security.”
“Particularly odd in Coons’ statement is the fact that it was not Israel, but
US positions in Iraq that were struck by Iranian missiles, themselves a
response to the killing of Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani.
“Yet, the American funding of Israel’s military adventures continues
unabated, despite the rapidly changing political reality in the Middle East,
and the shifting American role in the region as well.
“This further confirms that the blind US support of Israel is not motivated
by a centralized American strategy, one that aims at serving US interests.
Instead, the unconditional – and, often, self-defeating - American funding
of the Israeli war machine is largely linked to domestic US politics and,
indeed, the unparalleled power wielded by the pro-Israel lobby in the
United States.
“According to the public policy research institute of the United States
Congress, Congressional Research Center (CRS), between 1946 and 2019
(including the requested funds for 2020) US aid to Israel has exceeded
$142 billion.
“The vast majority of this funding - over $101 billion - went directly to the
Israeli military budget, while over $34 billion and $7 billion were given to
Israel in terms of economic aid and missile defense funding, respectively.
“It is becoming increasingly obvious that the US no longer possesses a
well-defined and centralized strategy in the Middle East, with President
Donald Trump changing American priorities from one speech to the next.
However, one key phrase that seems consistent in whatever political
agenda that is still championed by Washington in the region is “Israel’s
“Inexplicably, Israel receives roughly “one-third of the American foreignaid budget, even though (it) comprises just .001 percent of the world's
population and already has one of the world's higher per capita incomes,”
wrote Professor Stephen Zunes in the Washington Report on Middle East
“This massive budget includes much more than the $3.3 billion of annual
funding, but other amounts and perks rarely make headlines. Anywhere
between $500 million to $800 million are given to Israel every year as
part of a missile defense package; approximately, an additional $1 billion
benefits Israel in the form of tax-deductible donations, while $500 billion
are invested in Israeli bonds.
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“Starting in 1982, Israel has been receiving US aid as a lump sum, as
opposed to scheduled payments as is the case with other countries. To
satisfy its obligations to Israel, the US government borrows the money,
thus left to pay interest on the loans. Meanwhile, “Israel even lends some
of this money back through U.S. treasury bills and collects the additional
interest,” Zunes wrote.
“US relations with Israel are not governed by the kind of political wisdom
that is predicated on mutual benefit. But they are not entirely irrational
either, as the American ruling classes have aligned their interests, their
perception of the Middle East and their country’s role in that region with
that of Israel, thanks to years of media and official indoctrination.
“Despite the fact that the US is retreating from the region, lacking
strategy and future vision, US lawmakers are congratulating themselves
on passing yet another generous aid package to Israel. They feel proud of
their great feat, because, in their confused thinking, a ‘secured’ Israel is
the only guarantor of US dominance in the Middle East, a theory that has
been proven false, time and time again.”
1) Saudi Arabian bioweapon history and capability
Due to its very close political alignment with the US and cooperation with the US military and
CIA in Middle Eastern affairs, there is a reasonably high probability it has very advanced
bioweapons research and development. Below is some evidence to substantiate that claim.
“Biological Warfare: US & Saudis Use Cholera to Kill Yemenis, by William
Boardman, August 01, 2017
“‘Since March 2015, the US has supported Saudi Arabia and its allies in
their criminal war of aggression against Yemen, committing daily war
crimes, especially against civilians, who are now suffering a cholera
epidemic with more than 400,000 victims. Cholera is caused by the
bacteria Vibrio cholera and has been weaponized by the US, Japan (in
World War II), South Africa (under apartheid), Iraq (under Saddam), and
other states. To be most effective, cholera must be spread through water
supplies. That’s what’s happening in Yemen now. More than two years of
bombing has largely destroyed Yemen’s infrastructure, water and sewage
systems are destroyed, hospitals and clinics are destroyed, and the
population of about 25 million has almost no protection against the
spread of cholera. The UN says Yemen’s cholera epidemic is “the largest
ever recorded in any country in a single year since records began.”
“This may not be literal biological warfare, but it is certainly biological
warfare by other means. This is biological warfare in reality, if not in law.
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This is biological warfare in one of the world’s poorest countries,
supported across two American administrations, with no sign of letting
“And in Yemen, the US continues to support and participate in this
panoply of criminal acts with little objection from Congress, most news
media, or the general public. Few seem to care about the deliberate
spread of a toxin that affects mostly children and that “causes a person’s
intestines to create massive amounts of fluid that then produces thin,
grayish brown diarrhea.” Where treatment is unavailable or impossible,
cholera can be lethal in a matter of days. As a NOVA program on bioterror
put it,
“…because cholera is readily treated with proper medical
attention, it is less likely to be used as an agent of terror in
the United States.”
“And since rehydration is essential to recovery, cholera is most effectively
deployed in a place like Yemen where the water and sewage systems
have been bombed into a state of high lethality.”
The following is an example of Saudi use of chemical weapons, not biological warfare per se, but
rather equally illegal chemical warfare, however does establish that international law means
about the same in Saudi Arabia as the USA.
“Saudi Arabia appears to be using U.S.-supplied white phosphorus in its
war in Yemen
“Saudi Arabia appears to be using U.S.-supplied white phosphorus
munitions in its war in Yemen, based on images and videos posted to
social media, raising concerns among human rights groups that the highly
incendiary material could be used against civilians.
“Under U.S. regulations, white phosphorus sold to other countries is to
be used only for signaling to other troops and creating smoke screens.
When the munition explodes, it releases white phosphorus that
automatically ignites in the air and creates a thick white smoke. When
used against soldiers or civilians, it can maim and kill by burning to the
Thomas Gibbons-Neff
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Saudi Arabia appears to have at least one national defense bioweapons facility.
“CERTEK has completed a project for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's
Royal Guard and the Ministry of Defense. Supplying them two 2100
square feet Modular All Hazard Receipt Facilities (AHRF) that can allow
clinical, diagnostic and research of indigenous or exotic agents and offer
definitive validation of unknown Biological or Chemical agents in
support of the four mobile units, two Microbiological BSL-3 and two
Toxicology units supplied by CERTEK for theater validation in response
to an outbreak, act of terror or force protection. Spring of 2018.
“CERTEK has constructed, installed, and successfully commissioned a
1776 square foot Animal Biosafey Laboratory Level III,
CERTEK is relocating a Modular BSL-3 facilities.” Fall of 2015
CERTEK has installed a new BSL-3 that will be used for tuberculosis
Thus, having both bioweapons research and animal research facilities, they do in vivo research
on animals used as biologic delivery weapons, ranging from insects, to bats, etc. Yemenis and
Syrians are just two of their favorite research subject groups.
Given the very tight control on news coming out of Saudi Arabia, it is highly likely they have
other BSL-3 and BSL-4 defence department biological research centers not found on the
In regards to auxiliary research and development, Saudi Arabia has some excellent universities,
e.g. King Saud University Botany & Microbiology Department service unit (Central Research
Laboratory) containing the most “updated technical equipment in addition to an integrated
micro preparations unit to assist in the scientific research projects and experiments for
members of the faculty and postgraduate students.”
In a 2016-2017 study WHO determined that “some of the NICs and other reference laboratories
in the Region have major gaps on biosafety measures including bio-waste management and
security of the laboratory.”
And then in 2018
“To address the above gaps and facilitate the process of enhancing
standard biosafety measures, a regional biosafety training course for
containment of influenza and other infectious diseases of international
concern was organized by WHO in collaboration with U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in partnership with the Association
of Public Health Laboratories (APHL). The aim of the training course was
to present best practices that will assist the Member States in the
development of biosafety programmes within the NICs. The training
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was attended by NIC managers and Biosafety officers from Afghanistan,
Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya,
Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan,
Tunisia and United Arab Emirates.”
_38.pdf?ua=1 (Bold text added by author.)
Saudi Arabia is a very “rich” country; however, its wealth is bimodally distributed. Most of the
work is done by foreigners in Saudi Arabia, though Sauds often or usually hold management
positions. They often don’t show up at work, and consequently discipline and protocol among
the workers can be weak.64
The Saudi population incidentally has been suffering from a MERS outbreak, 2012-2018,
Cumulative Number of cases: 1,876; Deaths 726, CFR 38.6%. The percentage of infections as the
direct result of containment breeches is unknown.
“Notably, 2019-nCoV was closely related (with 88% identity) to two batderived severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses,
bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, collected in 2018 in Zhoushan,
eastern China, but were more distant from SARS-CoV (about 79%) and
MERS-CoV (about 50%)..”
MERS stands for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and appears to have about a 50% overlap in
gene identity with COVID-19 at least in that study.
In the summer of 2019 Saudi officials signed an agreement to invest some $10 billion in an oil
refinery in Northwest China.65
Saudi-India alliance
Although most Saudi high-level security is provided by US PMCs, most of the day to day security
and IT work is done by Indians. It is entirely possible there is a great deal of cooperation in a
number of security fields between Saudi Arabia and India.
This is a bit surprising in some ways. Although Pakistan – a Muslim country - for example has
quite a number of Nobel Prize winners and very brilliant scientists, the Saudis prefer to work
with Indians. This may reflect an American bias; the probability is 50/50.
64 It should be noted China is not on that or any list of nations with “gaps” in security protocol at their BSL
3 & 4 laboratories.
65 And, coincidentally or not, this writer started meeting quite a number of Saudis citizens shortly
thereafter in Beijing grocery stores and other places around town.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Saudi-USA alliance
Numerous American mainstream news publications reported in mid-May 2017 that President
Trump and Saudi royal crown prince Mohamad bin Salman (MBS) signed weapons deals worth
nearly $110 billion immediately and $350 billion over a ten-year period, and then in July of 2019
President Trump vetoed a Congressional and Senate ban on weapons sales to Saudi Arabia.
Thus, Saudi royal crown prince Mohamad bin Salman is much beholding to President Trump and
would probably do anything to please him. The family Saud remains in power in Saudi Arabia not
because of popular support, but rather because of its unassailable military and police might.
In February 2019 Saudi Arabia signed a $10 billion deal with China to build an oil refinery, and
this was followed by a large influx of Saudis to China. Thus, they have motivation, methods and
opportunities to have launched a biological weapons attack on China. In 2017 King Salman
visited Beijing and signed a $65 deal with China.
Saudi royal crown prince Mohamad bin Salman however is not his father, and certainly has the
power to think and act independently, as his alleged murder of Washington Post reporter Jamal
Khashoggi in 2019 implies. That alleged murder indicates a level of sociopathic thinking that
could be capable of anything. Hence, the possibility of MBS launching of a bioweapon in Wuhan
is not inconsiderable. Like President Trump he appears to believe himself above all laws of God
and man and well beyond the reach of any kind of justice.
2a) Saudi history of military aggression against China specifically
There is no record of Saudi military aggression against China. In fact, in November 2019
Newsweek announced that China had begun military drills with Saudi Arabia.66
2b) Saudi pursuance of intra- and international military aggression
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when Houthi insurgents, fed up with the economic restrictions
imposed on them by the Saudi backed President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi rose up and began a
war of liberation. In March of 2015 Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab nations with U.S. logistic
and intelligence against the people of Yemen. The cost of that war has been very, very high for
the Yemeni people.
22.2 million estimated number of people in need of assistance
91,600 estimated number of people killed since 2015
2 million estimated number of displaced people
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Saudi Arabia's involvement in the Syrian War involved the large-scale supply of weapons and
ammunition to various rebel groups in Syria during the Syrian Civil War. Around half a million
people have been killed in that war.67
Though Saudis claim they are only countering Iranian hegemony in the region, it was the Saudis
that started the hegemony “game” there by installing its puppets in various nations. Only after
the indigenous people of those nations rose up against Saudi Hegemony, did Iran become
Saudi Arabia backed Iraq during the Iran Iraq War
Saudi Arabia would earn Iran’s lasting enmity when it decided at that point to back Saddam.
Support from the Saudis and other allies would help Saddam survive, but not before more than
one million lost their lives in the brutal eight-year long war.
Saudi Arabia is a whole-hearted supporter of Israel in its conquest of
“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, often known as MBS, told
heads of US-based Jewish groups that the Palestinian leadership must
accept conditions for peace put forward by the administration of US
President Donald Trump, according to a report on Israeli media 30 April
2018. During a closed-door meeting last month in New York with the
organisations' leaders, bin Salman harshly criticised Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas, Channel 10 news reported on Sunday, citing an Israeli
diplomatic wire and sources.
“‘In the last several decades the Palestinian leadership has missed one
opportunity after the other and rejected all the peace proposals it was
given,’ bin Salman reportedly said in a report published on Axios website
by Barak Ravid, Channel 10's senior diplomatic correspondent. ‘It is about
time the Palestinians take the proposals and agree to come to the
negotiations table or shut up and stop complaining.’”
Use of military assistance to gain influence in Lebanon
The Saudis buy influence in Lebanon by providing French vehicles, helicopters, drones, cannons
and other military equipment. This is in response to Hezbollah’s general popularity within
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Hezbollah is a political and militant Shi'ite Muslim group based in
Lebanon. Hezbollah, whose name means “Party of God” in Arabic, was
founded in 1982 following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in the First
Lebanon War.
The group, which is currently led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has close
political and military ties with Syria and Iran, and is designated by the
United States and other Western nations as a terrorist group. The
political arm of Hezbollah is deeply involved in Lebanese politics, with
seats in the government, and the group has a history of providing social
programs, schools and health care to the Lebanese Shi'ite community.


programs, schools and health care to the Lebanese Shi'ite community.
In Washington and Tel Aviv’s eyes, anyone who builds schools and offers health care to poor
Muslims must be a terrorist.
Fighting Shiite minority groups in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia
Party of God
Islamic Jihad for the Liberation of Palestine
Organization of the Oppressed on Earth
Revolutionary Justice Organization
Hizballah is an Islamic movement founded after the Israeli military seizure
of Lebanon in 1982, which resulted in the formation of Islamic resistance
units committed to the liberation of the occupied territories and the
ejection of Israeli forces. Hizbollah was established in 1982 during the
Lebanon War when a group of Lebanese Shi'ite Muslims declared
themselves to be the "Party of God" (Hizb Allah, which is clear in Hizbollah
but progressively less so in Hizbollah / Hizbullah / Hezbollah).
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called again for the disarmament
of Lebanon's Hezbollah and the halting of its military interventions in
neighboring Syria, in a semi-annual report released 03 May 2019...
Israel fears Hezbollah’s growing strength and Iran’s growing influence as
a threat to its regional hegemony — a concern shared by its Saudi and
American counterparts — and will continue actions in Syria in an effort
to counter what it sees as a growing Iranian presence next door. There
will eventually be a showdown between Israel and Hezbollah. But the
rules of the game have changed dramatically in Hizbollah’s favor since
the two last fought. In the 2006 war, Hezbollah gave Israel a bloody nose
but Lebanon was devastated in the process. In any future war, Hezbollah
will be able to do far more damage to Israel. The organization is much
stronger, far better armed and is able to carry out offensive maneuvers
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

after gaining extensive battlefield experience against jihadists in Syria.
Also, any future war with Israel might include the involvement of
Hezbollah’s allies in Syria and Iraq, transforming what would otherwise
be a local conflict into a regional one.
Upon the realization that the IDF was entrenching itself in south Lebanon,
and influenced and assisted by 1,500 Iranian Revolutionary Guards in
Lebanon, Hizballah cells began developing with the immediate desire to
resist the Israeli invasion.
Hizballah fought alongside troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar alAssad. Hizballah said the war is necessary to protect Shi'ites from Sunni
extremists who had been at the forefront of the Syrian opposition.
Hizballah's deployment of fighters to Syria has increased the group's
enemies beyond its traditional rival, Israel, to include Sunni extremists.
The Syrian regime and Hizballah had a long military alliance, and Hizballah
leaders had sought safe haven in Syria and even routed weapons from
Iran into Lebanon. So the interplay between the Assad regime and
Hizballah has been well chronicled.
When Washington and Tel Aviv want to carve off a piece of Lebanon, or take over Syria, anyone
who resists is labeled a terrorist, and there will be Saudi Arabia helping the aggressors. That’s
the reality. Just so anyone who uses a Huawei telephone, is a communist sympathizer and can
also become a target. The USA foreign policy makers are indeed playing a zero-sum game, which
ultimately will have lose-lose results for all who get sucked into it. This is why Chinese officials
feel the need to simply rise above the conflicts Washington and its allies create, and why they
push the line that the COVID-19 is of natural causes. They are simply refusing to get sucked into
the endless and escalatory conflicts the US so loves to create. That’s called “taking the moral
high-ground.” It’s considered by most grownups, the mature thing to do and now doubt scores a
lot of points in the wisdom department.
Saudi military expenditure compared to other middle east countries
Table 3: Military expenditures in the middle east (2018)
Country Military spending in US $billions
Saudi Arabia 69.4
Turkey 18.2
Israel 16.5
Oman 8.7
Iraq 7.4
Kuwait 6.8
Egypt 2.8
Lebanon 2.4
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3) Saudi specific motivation to destabilize China economically or politically
On the surface Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China is in the ascendance phase as of February
Saudi Arabia strikes $10 billion China deal, talks de-radicalisation with Xi
Ben Blanchard (Reuters) February 22, 2019
“BEIJING (Reuters) - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
cemented a $10 billion deal for a refining and petrochemical complex in
China on Friday, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping who urged joint
efforts to counter extremism and terror.
“The Saudi delegation, including top executives from state-owned oil
company Saudi Aramco, arrived on Thursday on an Asia tour that has
already seen the kingdom pledge investment of $20 billion in Pakistan
and seek to make additional investments in India’s refining industry.
“Saudi Arabia signed 35 economic cooperation agreements with China
worth a total of $28 billion at a joint investment forum during the visit,
Saudi state news agency SPA said.
“The partners would form a company called Huajin Aramco
Petrochemical Co as part of a project that would include a 300,000-
barrels per day (bpd) refinery with a 1.5-million-metric tonnes per year
ethylene cracker, Aramco said.
“Aramco will supply up to 70 percent of the crude feedstock for the
complex, which is expected to start operations in 2024.”
Section 11 Overview
The effects of the colonial cabal on Palestine
There isn’t any doubt that the USA, Israel and their allies are day by day, year by year and
decade by decade stealing larger and larger quantities of land from Palestine. The UN does
occasionally issue a statement or something, but has been entirely ineffective in making any
difference at all in this situation. That is because the UN was designed from the beginning to be
a 100% supporter of western hegemony. The people of color in the world are not represented,
except for token faces in the General Assembly – the UN “Advisory Body” that has no power
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Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Table 2: Factors potentially enhancing motivation to engage in aggression against China*
Number of
conflicts and
wars since
stability of
leader (as of
Nov. 2020)
Potential motivation
to independently
launch bioweapon
attack on China
Potential motivation to
cooperate with another
nation in a bioweapon
attack on China
USA ∞68
- 1069 10 10
India 9+70
- 9 10 10
UK 28+ -9 9 10
France 32+ -9 9 10
Israel ∞71
-9 9 10
Saudi Arabia 3+ -9 8 1072
* Scale of -10 to +10
Chinese economic expansion has been tremendous and steady since the Deng Xiaoping
economic reforms. President Trump’s Trade war against China however dampened that a bit,
and the COVID-19 has slowed down Chinese economic growth even further, though the longterm effects, if any, have yet to be seen. The Chinese government is wisely promoting a
“confidence” campaign. As of this writing there is lively debate regarding the opening of many
factories and schools in China given the possibility of increased COVID-19 infection rates from
large numbers of people in close proximity to each other and the highly infectious and deadly
nature of this particular virus.
The general trend of American foreign policy is to allow nations to develop while profiting from
that development, then when they reach the point where they might be able to compete with
the USA, destroys them.
Iraq and Iran were well developed nations that had computer driven social security cheques
mailed to their elderly people before the American inspired Iraq/Iran war. The infrastructures of
both nations were destroyed.
68 Most American armed conflicts are TOP SECRET yet have occurred on all continents.
69 Many mental health professionals believe President Donald Trump has a deteriorating mental illness. More than 60,000 mental health professionals signed a petition stating in their professional
opinions President Trump has a serious mental illness /
70 Including its support for the LTTE in Sri Lanka Civil War
71 Since its founding in 1947/1948 barely a day has gone by without Israel attacking some neighbor in one
way or another. Consequently Israel keeps
growing and Palestine keeps shrinking.
72 Without American support there would be a revolution in Saudi Arabia against the Family Saud, who
are largely thought to be Jewish. They are not popular leaders.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Saudi Arabia is the twin brother of Israel and the biggest killer in the Middle East. The leadership
in both nations can only survive with American help and continued American global hegemony.
Diverse perspectives in China
In Chinese language there are a couple of phrases than can succinctly describe how the common
Chinese person might view the situation China now confronts after having so openly embraced
the primary colonial powers of the USA, Israel, France and the UK.
养虎为患 yang hǔ wéi huàn To nurture a tiger invites calamity, indulge one's
enemy is asking for trouble, rear a tiger and court disaster, if you’re too lenient
with somebody, he will damage you later, and to cherish a snake in one's
For those nations are known to be:
笑面虎 (xiàomiànhǔ) A smiling tiger.
To which the government might respond:
和气致祥 hé qìzhìxiáng Amiability leads to harmony and
家和万事兴 jiā hé wàn shìxīng If the family lives in harmony all affairs will prosper
This proposition can be supported by Confucian concept of:
大同 Dàtóng, The Great Harmony, the concept of an ideal society73 74
The COVID-19 Wuhan epidemic however might change the current stalemate between these
opposing philosophies.
No doubt the concepts of both the common man and the government in China have merit.
The deciding factor may be how long the COVID-19 Wuhan epidemic lasts and how many people
will die.
That the USA and its allies will continue to attempt “regime change” in China by any means
necessary is highly probable.
If the US is successful this could entail a civil war in China resulting in China being divided into
several smaller nations with the south of China choosing Shanghai as its capital which would
most probably be under the umbrella of American hegemony, and the north having Beijing as its
capital. Xinjian and Hong Kong might possibly go their separate ways, and Tibet would break off
and no doubt host several American/Indian sponsored thermonuclear missile sites aimed at
Beijing. If and when the fighting stops, it will be a very different much smaller, much poorer
collection of little Chinas. This scenario is a vision of doomsday to most Chinese, who though
sometimes ambivalent in regards to the government, would no doubt rally around the
73 Translations assisted by
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

government as the only viable alternative to the future US foreign policy makers envision for
Key Issue – Driving the arms races
Whether or not the Wuhan COVID-19 virus started
because of an accidental breech, or intentional
biological weapons attack might not be the key issue.
The key issue is that the USA has driven arms races,
including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons from
the beginning, and therefore is primarily responsible for
many or most of the contagious diseases on earth
including COVID-19, regardless of other circumstances.
How much is China’s destiny a function of American elections?
The outcome of the next presidential election in the US can to some extent influence China,
however there is something strange going on here.
Practically everyone in the world knows perfectly well what’s going on though many, most in
fact are afraid to say or write it out loud. In some cases, like with the Chinese government,
they’re taking the “high road” brushing it off and keep going forward. Others, like this writer and
most of the world-wide alternative press are shouting: Wake up people!
Can the USA shave a few points off of China’s growth rate? Sure. They’ve done that. There’s
even a reasonably high probability one way or another they are responsible for the COVID-19
epidemic. China however has again and again in history survived attacks, and no doubt will
survive this one as well.
If a moderate liberal wins the next presidential election that would at least slightly increase the
probability of reducing hostile attacks on China. At the same time, thus far no president has
managed to exert any control whatsoever over the CIA. Especially since 70% of the CIA’s budget
is outsourced to private intelligence companies, it has a huge amount of autonomy from
presidential, Congressional and Senate oversight.
Would any reader like to engage in corporate espionage? advertises they do it.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

The CIA has via its labyrinth of private intelligence
organizations it helped create, in many ways has already
accomplished a “fait accompli” on the US government.
They largely own it now. They have the influence in media
and finance and over the internet to determine who can
run for Congress, the Senate and president of the USA
and who will win.
Everyone has heard of military coups, but few have ever considered the possibility of an
intelligence coup. That is what has happened, though few if anyone dares to write or speak
about it.
If another arch conservative like Donald Trump wins re-election, the anti-China campaign will
only intensify, though it is unlikely the US administrations doomsday hopes for China and the
world will come to pass.
China has survived many foreign invaders over the past 5,000 years; however, the overt military
and covert intelligence capabilities of the USA are an aberration in history. True, the USA has
some loyal servants, but not that many really. They buy “friends” but the loyalty of those friends
is in most cases limited.
Chinese leaders are prepared to take the more difficult road and prove the moral superiority of
harmony. Confucius for example willingly left his lofty ministerial position and faced death with
his followers in a no-mans-land based on his firm belief in moral principles.
True the economies of American “partners in crime” (“potential aggressor nations”) are highly
dependent on the US maintaining absolute hegemony, and consequently those national leaders
don’t consider “harmony” as an option. Though they will smile and be very charming indeed, it
is unlikely they will stop or even diminish their individual and collective endeavors to divide and
destroy China. China’s counterintelligence simultaneously is no doubt smiling back, and taking
careful notes on who are friends, and who are not. Saudi Arabia’s oil is not infinite. American
temporary tolerance of Israel’s absolute cruelty to Palestinians, and state capture of the US is
not going unnoticed in the US or world-wide either. The British and French are teetering on the
edge of their down downfalls via their lack of concern for the common people. The outbreak of
a civil war in the United States is not inconsiderable either. Neither is a radical shift in voting
patterns. Americans too are fed up with the status quo.
“And, behold, one of them which were with Jesus stretched out
his hand, and drew his sword, and struck a servant of the high
priest's, and smote off his ear. 52Then said Jesus unto him, ‘Put
up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword
shall perish with the sword.’” (Matthew 26:51-52)
China’s rapid and intelligent approaches to containment of the COVID-19 epidemic are heroic as
are their efforts to find a cure and vaccine.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Probability and alternative futures
Given the development of ethnic-specific targeting of bioweapons (viral, bacterial and others),
and the world-wide tendency towards nationalism, tribalism and populism, in the absence of a
meaningful international bioweapons ban with the necessary enforcement tools, the probability
of a biological World War occurring is at least 51%.
Scenario 1 – In the wake of a biological world war mainly mixed-race people survive
Should a biological world war occur, it is possible a preponderance of mixed-race people might
survive as they would not be so specifically targeted by any one particular disease.
As for Semites, whites, blacks, Latinos and Asians, their futures are highly unlikely in the wake of
the biological warfare that may have already begun, though as many as 5% to 10% of each of
those populations might survive.
Likewise, it is possible Islam is likely to survive as the predominant religion as from the beginning
it was specifically and emphatically designed to be race neutral, as compared to Hinduism,
Judaism and Christianity which have all been fundamentally racist for most of their histories.
Genetically Islam is the most mixed-race religion.75 76
Hindus being primarily Indian probably will not fare well.
Buddhists however might survive as there is no trace of racism in their teachings and
consequently, they are genetically diverse. They represent 8% to 10% of the world’s population.
Thus, if there is a biological world war, and if any humans survive at all, they will probably
practice a form of Islamic Sufism, as Sufism is something of a Muslim/Buddhist amalgam.
Though this may seem like an unlikely ending to the history of biological warfare, it is one of two
most probable conclusions.
Should what appears to be current trends in biological warfare capabilities continue, it will be
incumbent upon African, Asian and Latino nations to have large stockpiles of Euro-American
ethnic-specific bioweapons along with dispersion methods fully developed and in place, as a
deterrence to the possibility that the USA already has stockpiles of ethnic-specific bioweapons
ready for them, in effect creating a homeostatic status of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
The probability of accidental containment breeches is extremely high, quite probably also
leading to a World Biological War, in which at least 50% - 80% of the world population would be
76 It is true in some Middle Eastern locations a great deal of genetic mixing occurred before the rise of
Christianity and Islam; however, they are predominantly Muslim countries now. Furthermore though the Maronites may be
proud of their genetic isolation, and have sponsored quite a bit of research, that isolation may work
against them in the bio-pathogenetic wars.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

And, who would be to blame? There is no question whatsoever it has been the United States
driving the arms race all around the planet in an effort to maintain American monopolar
hegemony. After the biological world war, the USA will be a pariah state, loathed and despised
by all. It can expect to pay restitution, the loss of enormous assets like Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto
Rico, and so on, that after-all deserve freedom from American hegemony, and face isolation for
an extended period of time, possibly decades or longer.
Scenario 2 – The Euro-American global capitalist fascists’ plan: Only Euro-Americans survive
The following is what American Eugenics proponents, neo-Nazis, alt-right, and other bigoted
extremists are hoping for. But, a little background first to understand the context they are
thinking about.
Critical turning points in history – A timeline
Ancient History
The Neanderthal/Denisovan - Human mix
350,000 years ago Neanderthal and Denisovan ancestors left Africa and
migrated throughout Eurasia.
60,000 – 70,000 years ago some human ancestors left Africa
50,000 to 55,000 years ago Neanderthals and human ancestors interbred (in the
Middle East) spreading north and west
45,000-50,000 years ago, Denisovan and human ancestors interbred (Asia)
spreading north and east
A Draft Sequence of the Neandertal Genome
Richard E. Green1, Johannes Krause, Adrian W. Briggs, Tomislav Maricic,
Udo Stenzel, Martin Kircher
“We show that Neandertals shared more genetic variants with presentday humans in Eurasia than with present-day humans in sub-Saharan
Africa, suggesting that gene flow from Neandertals into the ancestors of
non-Africans occurred before the divergence of Eurasian groups from
each other.”
Science, May 7, 2010: Vol. 328, Issue 5979, pp. 710-722, DOI:
The above study may come as a horrifying surprise to some neo-Nazi Euro-American racists, as it
suggests Africans are more “human” than Europeans, Middle-Easterners or Asians who mixed
more with Neanderthals 50,000 - 55,000 years ago in the Middle East. A detailed map of the
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

geographic areas and timelines are found on:
Neanderthal Genes Influencing Human Traits
“No one knows precisely why Neanderthals died out 40,000 years ago,77
but we do know there was some intermarriage between their community
and our ancestors. Many of these genes have been purged from the
modern human population over time due to natural selection, so the
current prevalence is only 1–4% of the current human genome.
“While the prevalence of genes from Neanderthals is rare in humans (<2%
in non-African populations), these genes still contribute to different
physical characteristics. The inherited traits from the Neanderthal
population sometimes offer benefits, and sometimes are linked to
disease-causing traits. The vast majority of the identified genes remaining
in the non-African population are associated with hair and skin color.
Genes with a Neanderthal origin are called archaic genes.
“When humans and Neanderthals coexisted, up to 10% of the human
genome was comprised of Neanderthal genes.
“A common question arising from the intermarriage of humans and
Neanderthals is the question of fertility among the offspring of these
unions. The evidence (Sankararaman, S. et. al., 2016) indicates that the
hybrid children were less fertile, as the prevalence of Neanderthal genes
on the X chromosome is fewer than those found on the autosomal (nonsex) chromosomes. This finding is due to natural selection, which
suggests the Neanderthal genes on this chromosome impaired fertility
and has become reduced over time as the X chromosomes with more
human genes produced more fertile males.”
The “Final Solution”
1) Before WWII a decision was made in the USA that fascism poised a greater threat to
western capitalism than communism, and so they built up, and then destroyed Hitler
and Japan, before pursuing the American total-war against communism.
2) The Euro-American global capitalists headquartered in the USA in about 2010/2011
decided world socialism centered in China was a greater threat to their racial/capitalist
hegemony than Islam, cut back on their war on “terrorism” and have refocused their
77 Some believe they were murdered by humans, in a manner similar to “eugenic” plans for all other races
of humans promoted by some wildly bigoted Euro-Americans. There is some possibility Harvard (and
other ivy league university professors) could be taking a lead in this planning as they are the bastion
university of the CIA.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

collective might on destroying China. As soon as that war is won, they would almost
certainly to go back and annihilate Islam and all Semites world-wide.
Ergo, it is extremely unlikely Chinese theories on harmony are going to influence American
foreign policies even a little. The attack on China isn’t just from the USA, it is supported by the
world’s most powerful entities, western banks, and isn’t so short-sighted as to only have China
in mind – the destruction of China is only a stepping stone to its future conquests.
Saudis and Israelis might well heed this warning.
After the total collapse of all significant Muslim and other Semitic nations, then India will be
targeted. India doesn’t have much in the way of natural resources to offer Euro-Americans, and
thus might be spared in the first wave. However, their high population is a drain on the earth’s
resources so they will certainly be annihilated in the second wave. African people might be
spared during this process simply for their labor power in extracting their natural resources for
the benefit of Euro-Americans.
In the end, Euro-Americans will totally rule the entire earth and all other people will be in effect
slaves, before they extinct, like the Neanderthals. There won’t be that many other people
anyways thanks to the cost effectiveness of biological weapons.
Quite unbelievably terrible, but that’s probably (95%) the plan given historic and contemporary
Other Scenarios
1. All humans die. Only cockroaches inhabit the planet and they only survive because so
many are frozen in the stratosphere. After most of the deadly bacterial and viral
pathogens on earth die out due to the lack of suitable hosts, some of the cockroaches
will float down will find a pleasantly quiet earth.
2. The United Nations finds a way to reorganize itself and follows the suggestions in this
article; the US backed into a corner is forced to reduce its defense spending by 50% the
first year, and 90% within five years. The “extra money” is used to 1) Pay back some of
the $23 trillion the USA has borrowed in recent years, and start to rebuild those nations
it destroyed, and the USA as well. The USA owes restitution for war crimes and crimes
against humanity to a great many countries.
3. The big bankers read this article and figure out that they’ve made some horrible
miscalculations, follow the suggestions in this article, and force the USA to follow the
suggestions in #2 above.
It is unlikely Chinese, Latin Americas or Africans will work towards global domination as it
doesn’t fit into their philosophical frameworks. Those who have experienced colonialism over
extended periods of time are not so likely to impose it on others.
Euro-Americans however over the past 500 years have proven to be highly aggressive and
successful in that aggression. Colonialism has proven very profitable to them and they are not
likely to voluntarily cease that activity. Hence the dilemma of a totally ineffectual United Nations
supported by grossly swollen big banks.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Final Destination
By the time the world’s first Biological War is finished however it will be too late for
recriminations. One can only hope if humanity survives, future civilizations will not be ruled by
greedy tyrants willing to risk global annihilation in order to “prove” and maintain their own
highly dubious racial and religious “superiority.”
The United Nations as usual, is sleeping, and the clock is ticking at ever accelerating speeds now
that the biological wars may well have begun launched in Wuhan on the watch of President
Donald Trump on the advice of his Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and with the full backing
of their Nazi followers.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Given the number of mysteries associated with the genesis of COVID-19, the probability that it
naturally appeared in Wuhan in November and December 2019 is at best 50/50. The Chinese
government’s rational for wishing to promote a natural occurrence theory appear reasonable.
Were the Chinese public to learn there was even a 1% change it could have been a biological
attack, Americans might not be safe in China and the consequences of that could throw Chinese
American relations into cold storage for decades. This would further disrupt the world economy,
with world’s poorest people paying the price. Likewise, even a rumor of an accidental
containment leak could result in China being forced to reduce its study of virology especially at a
time when that need is paramount to national security and the health of not only Chinese but
potentially the entire world. Hence, Chinese administrators’ need to ascribe the genesis of
COVID-19 to natural causes.
• The American public however should be informed there is in fact a reasonably high
probability the COVID-19 outbreak was either 1) an accidental or 2) intentional
“containment breech,” or a 3) pre-planned sophisticated biological weapons attack by
the American DoD, mandated by the DPG, formulated in DAPRA and authorized by the
CIA and President Trump, an Crime Against Humanity and violation of innumerable
American and International laws.78
Though that kind of bifurcated news reporting might seem disingenuous to some, it is a
common occurrence. In the wake of the American “targeted assassination” (murder according
to many) of Quds Commander Soleimani January 3rd, 2020, the Iranian press reported hundreds
of American deaths and the American media reported no deaths or injuries (though reports of
concussions later poured out to place shame on the “bad, bad” Iranians). This kind of bifurcated
news has many practical advantages.
78 The critically thinking reader may wonder, how can the author write: “50/50” in one sentence, and
“highly likely” in another. The answer is simple. There is no single statistical “truth.” Values derived from
statistical equations can vary widely depending on how the factor information is quantified and the
specific equations used to analyze that data. From several points of view (data coding methodologies and
statistical formulas), the probability of 2019-nCov appearing naturally specifically in Wuhan at specifically
that time approaches zero.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

• Though Chinese administrators might not care for this approach at this time,79 the
American Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) will ensure one attack after another upon
China until China is destroyed or it is largely rewritten. That document itself mandates
extreme violations of the original 1945 UN Charter and innumerable amendments and
other international laws. It is a psychopathic danger to everyone on earth. It must
become a public issue in the USA, and soon.
Accidental containment breeches do happen in nuclear facilities also; this is not an
inconceivable event. And an intentional containment breech is also not inconceivable. It would
“fit” well within the Defence Planning Guidance policy of the United States and the timing and
location were also perfect to effect maximum potential viral spread in China. A more
sophisticated approach, e.g. specifically a DARPA manufactured viral bioweapon attack on China
is also certainly possible. The only inconceivable event is that COVID-19 occurred naturally. The
probability of that is close to zero given the area of China, winter conditions in Wuhan at that
time and the physiology of bats.
Given the contentious political and military considerations involved and novel features of the
COVID-19 it is not unreasonable to ask, if this was a bioweapon attack, how high up did that
decision-making process go?
Was this potential attack a “lone wolf” leak by a single DARPA researcher(?) or was this a
preplanned attack packaged and approved of by the CIA with presidential authorization? The
latter is more likely given mandates articulately defined in The Defense Planning Guidance (DPG)
and larger political trends. According to that regularly updated document, large parts of which
are now TOP SECRET, no nation will be allowed to economically, militarily or politically compete
with the United States, and the Department of Defence is mandated to ensure no nation can
economically, militarily or politically compete with the United States.
The larger political/military strategy here could be a multi-year three-pronged attack (Tibet,
Xinjiang, Hong Kong) on the corners of China, followed by - what could be - a massive assault to
the heart of China, Beijing, via Wuhan.
To ‘injure the corners’
“It is difficult to move strong things by pushing directly, so you should
'injure the corners.' In large-scale strategy, it is beneficial to strike at the
corners of the enemy's force. If the corners are overthrown, the spirit of
the whole body will be overthrown. To defeat the enemy, you must
follow up the attack when the corners have fallen. In single combat, it is
easy to win once the enemy collapses. This happens when you injure the
79 They fear primarily two things: 1) possible blame for a containment breech and 2) violent anti-American
sentiments, possibly including a civilian led boycott of American products and services, which would only
exacerbate international tensions rather than heal them. What they hope for is Americans electing a
president that is not mentally ill in November 2020. Unfortunately, President Trump is highly likely to do
irreparable harm before that time via other attacks of one kind or another, and definitively start a war
against Iran. In other words, just waiting is not a good solution.

Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

'corners' of this body, and thus weaken him. It is important to know how
to do this, so you must research this deeply.”
Gorin no Sho: The Book of Five Rings, By Miyamoto Musashi
This hypothetical “assault” on the political and financial heart of China, Beijing is surrounded by
a number of highly improbable events.
• The timing of the appearance of COVID-19 – in winter, just before Chinese New Year’s
holiday – that holiday in China in which more people travel than anywhere else in the
world, all at the same time,
• In Wuhan’s just south of Beijing, given that bats frequently fly north in Spring, and
• DARPA’s admitted study of various pathogens including viruses and specifically
coronavirus, and the migratory flights of bats
• The novelty of this disease
The above present substantial circumstantial evidence suggests this COVID-19 epidemic was a
planned attack, however improbable events do happen from time to time, e.g. the mutation
resulting in blue eyes.
The smoking guns however are:
• The Department of Defense Planning Guide, which mandates the Department of
Defense prevent any other nation from competing economically or militarily with the
United States.
Proving motivation, and
• The “novel” aspects of COVID-19 given that DARPA has done extensive research on gene
splicing with viruses, use of bats as carriers, studied their migration pathways and
advertises all that on its website.
…proving methods.
That it was DARPA funded, Galveston National laboratory - Infections Disease Research center
that designed and directed the Wuhan Institute of Virology is not however a “smoking gun.”
Definitely not.
Instead it is analogous to a smoking thermonuclear multiple independently targetable reentry
vehicle (MIRV - missile payload containing several warheads, each capable of being aimed to hit
a different target).
• Smoking Thermonuclear MIRV: Intimate relationship between DARPA and Wuhan
Institute of Technology, with Galveston Texas National Laboratory - Infections Disease
Research Center in the center.
To say there is a “relationship" between DARPA contracted “Galveston Texas National
Laboratory - Infections Disease Research Center” and Wuhan Institute of Virology (as Wikipedia
does) is an understatement as according to the internet site of Galveston National laboratory -
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

Infections Disease Research center they are directing the Wuhan maximum biocontainment
laboratories (MCLs).
The Galveston National Laboratory has expertise in the precise techniques to create a
"mutated" virus.
“We can assist investigators with preliminary analysis of their data,
including read mapping, gene expression quantification, miRNA analysis
and alternative splicing of mRNA. Working with investigators from the
Galveston National Laboratory we have developed in-house pipelines for
virus analysis, with emphasis on de novo assembly for novel virus
identification and variant analysis in viral populations. We also can help
in installing and running any new open source analysis methods as they
become available.”
Should proof that COVID-19 was intentionally manufactured80 and even more unlikely get into
the media, there is a high probability American administration would find a scapegoat to blame
it on and go with the “lone wolf,” deranged madman narrative.
In any case, manufacturing and storage of biological weapons is strictly prohibited by
international law and the Justice Department could order DARPA to immediately cease all
research in that area, safely destroy the vast array of biological weapons it is now working with
and not produce any more. DARPA and other virologic research centers could legitimately argue
they cannot discover a cure for the disease or develop a vaccine without live samples.
1. The American public should be informed there is a reasonably high probability the USA
is responsible for deaths of thousands in China due an intentional biological attack
launched in Wuhan specifically to make it look like a containment breech for the
purpose of blaming the Chinese, a classic CIA strategy of blaming the victim for its
2. The American Defense Planning Guide (DPG) must be exposed worldwide, loudly
repudiated and replaced with something that is not insane. Countries in a sane world
are allowed to grow at their speed without fear of the United States starting wars to
prevent them from that natural growth and development. No nation or individual has a
right to stop the natural growth and development of another individual or nation. The
DPG mandating the US military and intelligence departments and agencies enforce
80 This proof could come from a number of sources. for example, Chinese Counterintelligence could have
evidence of this they wish to maintain secret for the time being, there could be security video of an
intentional containment breech, someone who participated in this could confess as part of plea bargain in
China or the USA, or some peculiarity in the RNA structure of the 2019-nCoV could prove a non-natural
source. Probability models can only point the way, they are not likely to provide proofs.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

American hegemony in perpetuity appears to act like an unofficial amendment to the
Constitution, which was probably not approved by Congress or the Senate. In any case,
the whole unredacted text of the newest version of the DPG should be demanded by
the American public, post haste in order to prevent DoD from starting WWIII, and using
biological weapons, plausibly deniable or not to maintain American hegemony in
perpetuity. China has more than three times the population of the US. Of course its GDP
is going to get larger than that of the USA. This is not a crime and should not be
punished or prevented. Attempting to do so is criminal.
3. Some international body must be formed to investigate, regulate and monitor BSL-3 and
BSL-4 research, safety standards and containment breeches, and forcibly stop
bioweapons development as there is none now, and this must be enacted with the
utmost haste. This international body must have enforcement powers to stop
bioweapons development permanently. All non-naturally occurring pathogens must be
safely destroyed worldwide except none. There must be a global on-line record of all
pathogens and where they are freely available to all are so when containment breeches
occur people at least know what is killing them.
4. Unfortunately, the UN General Assembly is still harshly limited by the odious dictates of
the United Nations Security Council which has always worked to maintain western
hegemony. Consequently, the UN needs to reorganize and eliminate that deadly
bottleneck that is directly responsible for the uncounted millions of deaths from wars
since 1945.
5. Furthermore, the United Nations has to stop promoting democracy as the only
representative form of government. A good king, or socialist government can represent
the people and ensure freedom far better than the corrupted democracy the United
States has become with its huge number of homeless people, lack of socialized
medicine, world’s largest prison system, unequal education, gerrymandered electoral
districts, and so on.
6. The United States, France, the UK, Israel and Saudi Arabia should have their UN
memberships suspended until such time as they learn to act in responsible law-abiding
manner. Colonialism is not legal, it’s a crime against humanity and must stop.
a. The US needs to amend the Constitution so it can fire most of the Supreme
Court justices who voted to promote absolute corruption in American politics,
and then prosecute them for violating their oaths and remove them from
7. American Ivy league universities’ top administrators should mandate their professors
spend half their teaching years in universities in the developing world, to reduce the
possibility of harboring race-based theories of eugenics. The same for top European
universities. The CIA and other intelligence organizations should be locked out of all
81 US Constitution - Article III (Article 3 - Judicial)
The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour...
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

8. Intelligence organizations world-wide need to be licensed, regulated and monitored to
prevent covert forces from determining the fate of nations, races, business entities and
“free equal people.” Intelligence agencies have reduced liberty, equality, and privacy to
zero worldwide. Right now, only those who can afford their own private intelligence
organization have liberty, and privacy, and live on a level that is anything but equal to
the common person.
9. American political campaign finance laws must be changed to take money out of the
equation completely.
10. The worldwide media, especially the news media must start to respect the truth and not
just corporate interests.
11. Shadow regulation of the internet must end.
12. Reasoning along parallel lines, Chinese and other administrators worldwide should
review of how many industries DARPA has insinuated itself into. What today is a human
virus, tomorrow could be a computer virus, and the day after some new parasitic or
crop destroying pest, and so on, and on. The work of every Harvard professor worldwide
should be taken out and replaced with something that is known to be safe. Not one is to
be trusted.
13. There should be a worldwide education program to slow the spread of COVID-19. Most
overseas media are treating the COVID-19 epidemic as if it were just another flu virus.
Scientists have spent decades studying influenzas and know a lot about them. COVID-19
is not a flu virus; it is something altogether new spreading and killing vastly faster than
SARS for example and it is much more unpredictable. It has the potential to jump to
other mammals82 and further mutate.
14. Both the Chinese and American governments are downplaying public alarm and
silencing alternative viewpoints in regards to the genesis of this novel disease. In China
that is understandable as panic and anger can be more dangerous than disease
transmission, and depression can reliably lower people’s immune responses, however
without understanding of the potential dangerousness of a novel virus, many or most
people, especially outside of China will not take it seriously enough. No medicines or
vaccines in any way related to American research or big pharma can be trusted.
15. The American Department of Defense budget should be cut in half, and that extra
money spent rebuilding the many countries the USA has attacked since WWII. Defense
industries should diversity their interests and invest in construction and engineering to
help rebuild those nations the US DoD worked so hard to destroy. This seems like a
minimal form of restitution the United States owes those nations.
16. The CIA should be retrained and re-tasked to help promote peace, and provide peaceoriented education, medicine and improve the general welfare all people around the
world in an open and transparent way in a non-discriminatory fashion although some
CIA leaders may have to face charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes in The
Hague, including but not limited to George Tenet, Michael Pompeo and Gina Haspel. All
former American intelligence officers will need to be closely monitored for the rest of
their lives and their rights to privacy, forfeit in exchange for leniency.
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China

17. The State Department is supposed to be the diplomatic branch of government. Instead
it functions as a branch of the CIA. It needs to start to learn and practice diplomacy.
Ambassadors should not be rich friends of presidents. They should be social scientists
and economists who understand the concepts of win-win solutions and mutually
beneficial relationships. They have a lot to learn from Chinese diplomats.
18. The principle leaders of all branches within the “deep state” including foundations,
institutes, think tanks, intelligence and police organizations, PMCs and Private
intelligence agencies, fortune 500 companies, etc. need to learn that peace is better for
business than killing. Starving, impoverished, diseased and dead people don’t buy
19. At least 25% of the current budget of the DoD should be invested in environmental
restoration and alternative energy development.
20. The American Department of Education and ministries of education worldwide need to
incorporate conflict resolution skills training into all levels of education, K-12.
21. Both the Chinese and American governments should encourage their medias to better
promote moderate exercise to boost immune response. The word “moderate” is critical
here. At present the American Medical Association is functioning with big
pharmaceutical companies to promote illness rather than prevent it.
22. It is most certainly in the interests of even the western mainstream media to promote
the above suggestions; it can most certainly be considered a form of “enlightened selfinterest” given that biological weapons have the potential extinguish all life on earth.
a. Are the publishers, editors and producers of western news willing to bet their
lives, and the lives of their families and all of humanity on the quirky nature of
DARPA manufactured viral and bacterial mutations?
b. Ditto for bankers, politicians and even the neo-Nazis
23. More accurate histories need to be taught world-wide to prevent horrific abuses of
power such as the USA, UK, France and Israel still engage in, e.g. acting as colonial
powers in Africa, Latin American and Asia. The real evils and cruelties of colonialism
need to be stressed worldwide. Media and history books worldwide should not deny or
fragment Euro-American colonialism. The history of the past 500 years has been
characterized by one Euro-American driven colonial holocaust after another culminating
in many occurring simultaneously since 9/11. Even in Beijing private schools usually
teach an exclusively Euro-American-centric perspective on history, which virtually
always begins with the Greeks, then Romans, and pretty much ignores the fact that
Chinese invented practically everything before the 16th Century (except the wheel which
appears to be of Mesopotamian origin, corresponding to modern day Syria and Iraq).
24. Respect for all people must begin in early childhood by reinforcing genuine gender
equality. It is the belief of many that it is the early learning of sexism that sets the stage
for later bigotry. Even though it has been a Euro-American alliance of the ultra-rich
driving the genocidal colonial wars the past 500 years, 90% of Euro-Americans are
blameless because most have been ensnared in the very effective disinformation
machine of the world’s capitalists, the richest 1% of the world’s population. All people
must be evaluated on individual merits such as wisdom, level of social egalitarianism
Probability Model of the Genesis of COVID-19 in Wuhan China
and effort, not ethnicity, religion, gender, age, physical attractiveness, populist acting
ability, political orientation or other superficial characteristics.
Some things to be happy about
• Vaccines help reduce the spread of disease enormously and at the time of this writing
research on developing a COVID-19 vaccine is a worldwide cooperative effort,
• the argument can be made that Socialism with Chinese characteristics, which involves a
strong centralized state government has the necessary population control systems to
fight the spread of COVID-19 more effectively than most other nations,
• if all that doesn’t make people feel a little more hopeful, there is also the fact that the
Black Death Plague which infected Europe in the 14th Century was so deadly; it finally
became extinct also,
• it appears the potency of most viruses degrade over time, and finally,
• there exists the potential within humans to live without war, bigotry, extremist
nationalism and tribalism. The “transfer of savagery” is not necessary or desirable and
there still is time to return the earth to the beautiful garden-like state that gave birth to
the first humans.
About the author
Mr. Brundage worked for three years doing research at his university in physiology after earning
his Bachelors’ degree, before four years of Graduate School. He is a former member of the
Midwest Society of Electron Microscopists and National Association of School Psychologists. He
also taught statistics at the National Writers Academy in Kuala Lumpur in the 1990s and has
worked as a journalist in many Asian countries for most of the last 28 years. He is a semi-retired
teacher that has been living in Beijing China for the past 11 years and South Korea for seven
years before that. His favorite hobbies include reading, traveling on and writing about his “Silk
Road Kung Fu Friendship Tour” series of articles published in and
training for triathlon competitions. His internet sites include: